Publication

Journal	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume (Issue)	16(24)
Page(s)	15485 - 15500
Title of proceedings	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
DOI	10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016

URL	www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15485/2016/
Type of Open Access	Publisher (Gold Open Access)

We find that wintertime temperature anoma- lies near 4 hPa and 50◦ N/S are related, through dynam- ics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anoma- lies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer–Dobson circulation extends from the middle strato- sphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynami- cal index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60 % of the total variabil- ity of temperature, peaking at ∼ 5 hPa and dropping to 0 at ∼ 50 and ∼ 0.5 hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50 % of variability accounted for, with a slightly higher max- imum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improve- ment found at 10 hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equa- torial multiple-linear regression coefficients can be reduced by up to 35 and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.