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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

Type of publication Peer-reviewed
Publikationsform Original article (peer-reviewed)
Author Abram Nerilie J., McGregor Helen V., Tierney Jessica E., Evans Michael N., McKay Nicholas P., Kaufman Darrell S., Thirumalai Kaustubh, Martrat Belen, Goosse Hugues, Phipps Steven J., Steig Eric J., Kilbourne K. Halimeda, Saenger Casey P., Zinke Jens, Leduc Guillaume, Addison Jason A., Mortyn P. Graham, Seidenkrantz Marit-Solveig, Sicre Marie-Alexandrine, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Filipsson Helena L., Neukom Raphael, Gergis Joelle, Curran Mark A. J., et al.,
Project Detection of human and natural influences on the climate system: regional insights from the past Millennium
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Original article (peer-reviewed)

Journal Nature
Volume (Issue) 536(7617)
Page(s) 411 - 418
Title of proceedings Nature
DOI 10.1038/nature19082


The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.