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Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control

Type of publication Peer-reviewed
Publikationsform Original article (peer-reviewed)
Publication date 2015
Author Althaus C.L., Low N., Musa E.O., Shuaib F., Gsteiger S.,
Project Acute and chronic dynamics of HIV and HCV infections, within-host evolution and epidemiological outcomes
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Original article (peer-reviewed)

Journal Epidemics
Volume (Issue) 11(0)
Page(s) 80 - 84
Title of proceedings Epidemics
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2015.03.001

Open Access

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2015.03.001
Type of Open Access Publisher (Gold Open Access)

Abstract

Abstract International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared \{EVD\} free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of \{EVD\} in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an \{EVD\} transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2–15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11–21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of \{EVD\} outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.
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