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Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

Type of publication Peer-reviewed
Publikationsform Original article (peer-reviewed)
Author Malik Abdul, Brönnimann Stefan, Stickler Alexander, Raible Christoph C., Muthers Stefan, Anet Julien, Rozanov Eugene, Schmutz Werner,
Project Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II
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Original article (peer-reviewed)

Journal Climate Dynamics
Page(s) 1 - 22
Title of proceedings Climate Dynamics
DOI 10.1007/s00382-017-3529-9


The present study is an e ort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600–2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the in uence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Paci c Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we inves- tigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a con- siderable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational ndings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observa- tional and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.