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A Comprehensive Assessment of the Short-Term Uncertainty of Grid-Connected PV Systems

Type of publication Peer-reviewed
Publikationsform Original article (peer-reviewed)
Author Scolari Enrica, Reyes-Chamorro Lorenzo, Sossan Fabrizio, Paolone Mario,
Project Integration of Intermittent Widespread Energy Sources in Distribution Networks: Scalable and Reliable Real Time Control of Power Flows
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Original article (peer-reviewed)

Journal IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Volume (Issue) 9(3)
Page(s) 1458 - 1467
Title of proceedings IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
DOI 10.1109/tste.2018.2789937

Open Access

Type of Open Access Publisher (Gold Open Access)


One of the key aspects enabling the bulk integration of photovoltaic (PV) resources into the power grid is the short-term prediction of the maximum available power (from 100 ms to 5 minutes), and the quantification of the associated uncertainties. This is beneficial for the definition of robust control strategies able to account for the stochastic nature of this energy resource. We propose and validate a comprehensive method to assess the overall PV power uncertainties, even at operating conditions different from the maximum power point (MPP), i.e., to consider when power curtailment strategies are adopted on a controllable PV plant. The proposed gray-box modeling includes physical and data-driven sub-models that rely on measurements of the PV currents, voltages, and the module temperature, information normally available to the PV plant operator. Furthermore, we identify which sub-model is the most critical in terms of uncertainty, for different forecast horizons. Experimental results analyze the ability of the method to guarantee the target coverage probability while accounting for the uncertain nature of the PV resource. We show how modelling and forecasting information can be used to express the PV plant behaviour to a grid controller responsible for the safe operation of a microgrid.