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Keywords (5)
risk preference; risk attitude; risk taking; ecological assessments; predictive modeling
Lay Summary (German)
Lead
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Risikopräferenz wird als ein grundlegender Baustein von menschlichem Verhalten angesehen. Doch wie generalisierbar ist (durch Fragebogen oder Verhaltenstests) gemessene Risikopräferenz auf Risikoentscheidungen im Alltag?
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Lay summary
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Menschen unterscheiden sich stark in ihrer Risikopräferenz, was sich z.B. in unvorteilhaften Finanzentscheidungen, Glücksspiel, Substanzmissbrauch, und riskanten Entscheidungen im Freizeitbereich oder bezüglich der Gesundheit ausdrücken kann. Risikopräferenz kann deshalb den Verlauf einzelner Menschenleben substantiell beeinflussen, hat aber auch Konsequenzen für die Gesellschaft (Prä- und Intervention). Deshalb wurden verschiedene Instrumente entwickelt, um Risikopräferenz systematisch messen.
Bis vor Kurzem war aber unklar, ob die verschiedenen Instrumente alle tatsächliche das gleiche Konstrukt "Risikopräferenz" messen, und wie reliabel diese Messungen über die Zeit hinweg bleiben. Mit einer umfangreichen Studie, in der 1,507 Personen 39 Messinstrumente bearbeiten haben, konnten wir substantielle Fortschritte bezüglich dieser Fragen machen.
Erstaunlicherweise gibt es aber nach wie vor kaum Forschung zu den tatsächlichen Risikoentscheidungen, die Menschen im Alltag treffen – obwohl die moderne Welt mit den technologischen, ökonomischen, und gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen ganz neue Risiken und Möglichkeiten mit sich bringt. Während wir nun also relativ gut verstehen, wie man Risikoeinstellung messen kann, wissen wir vergleichsweise wenig darüber, welche "Kriterien" im Alltag diese Messinstrumente überhaupt vorhersagen sollten.
In einem ersten Teilprojekt werden wir deshalb das Risikoverhalten im modernen Leben erfassen (mit repräsentativen Studien und mobilen Assessments per Smartphone); in einem zweiten Schritt werden wir offene Fragen zur Messung von Risikopräferenz adressieren; und in einem dritten Schritt werden wir testen, wie gut das Konstrukt Risikopräferenz Verhalten im Alltag vorhersagen kann.
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Responsible applicant and co-applicants
Employees
Publications
Millroth Philip, Frey Renato (2021), Fear and anxiety in the face of COVID-19: Negative dispositions towards risk and uncertainty as vulnerability factors, in
Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 83, 102454-102454.
Constantino Sara M., Pianta Silvia, Rinscheid Adrian, Frey Renato, Weber Elke U. (2021), The source is the message: the impact of institutional signals on climate change–related norm perceptions and behaviors, in
Climatic Change, 166(3-4), 35-35.
Frey Renato, Richter David, Schupp Jürgen, Hertwig Ralph, Mata Rui (2021), Identifying robust correlates of risk preference: A systematic approach using specification curve analysis., in
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 120(2), 538-557.
Frey Renato (2021), Psychological drivers of individual differences in risk perception: A systematic case study focusing on 5G, in
Psychological Science, 32, 1592-1604.
Steiner Markus, Frey Renato (2021), Representative design in psychological assessment: A case study using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), in
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 150(10), 2117-2136.
Steiner Markus, Seitz Florian, Frey Renato (2021), Through the window of my mind: Mapping the cognitive processes underlying self-reported risk preference, in
Decision, 8, 97-122.
Frey Renato (2020), Decisions from experience: Competitive search and choice in kind and wicked environments, in
Judgment and Decision Making, 15(2), 282-303.
FreyRenato, DuncanShannon, WeberElke, Towards a typology of risk preference: Four risk profiles describe two thirds of individuals in a large sample of the U.S. population, in
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1.
Collaboration
Philip Millroth (Department of Psychology), University of Uppsala |
Sweden (Europe) |
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- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results - Publication |
Prof. Elke U. Weber (Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment), Princeton University |
United States of America (North America) |
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- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results - Publication - Research Infrastructure |
Scientific events
Active participation
Title |
Type of contribution |
Title of article or contribution |
Date |
Place |
Persons involved |
Conference for Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making (SPUDM)
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Talk given at a conference
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Representative resign in psychological assessment: A case study using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART)
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24.08.2021
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Warwick, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Steiner Markus;
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Conference for Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making (SPUDM)
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Talk given at a conference
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Through the window of my mind: Mapping information integration and the cognitive representations underlying self-reported risk preference
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23.08.2021
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Warwick, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Seitz Florian;
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Conference for Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making (SPUDM)
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Poster
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Psychological drivers of individual differences in risk perception: A systematic case study focusing on 5G
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23.08.2021
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Warwick, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Frey Renato;
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Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development
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Individual talk
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How to measure risk preference?
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21.06.2021
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Berlin, Germany
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Frey Renato;
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EGPROC Conference
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Talk given at a conference
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Through the window of my mind: Mapping information integration and the cognitive representations underlying self-reported risk preference
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01.06.2021
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Tilburg, Netherlands
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Seitz Florian;
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Bernoulli Workshop for the Behavioral Sciences
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Talk given at a conference
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Psychological drivers of individual differences in risk perception: A systematic case study focusing on 5G
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28.05.2021
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Basel, Switzerland
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Frey Renato;
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Spanlab Stanford
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Individual talk
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Identifying robust correlates of risk preference: A systematic approach using specification curve analysis
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14.01.2021
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Stanford, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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SJDM Conference
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Poster
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Through the window of my mind: Mapping information integration and the cognitive representations nderlying self-reported risk preference
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12.12.2020
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Online, United States of America
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Seitz Florian; Steiner Markus; Frey Renato;
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SJDM Conference
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Talk given at a conference
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Representative design in psychological assessment: A aase study using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART)
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11.12.2020
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Online, United States of America
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Steiner Markus;
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SJDM Conference
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Poster
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Decisions from experience: Competitive search and choice in kind and wicked environments
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10.12.2020
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Online, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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Research seminar at the University of Essex
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Individual talk
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Stated vs. revealed preferences? Unpacking the measurement of people's risk preference
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08.12.2020
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Colchester, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Frey Renato;
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26th International Meeting of the Brunswik Society
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Talk given at a conference
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Representative design in psychological assessment: A aase study using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART)
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04.12.2020
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Online, United States of America
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Steiner Markus;
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Virtual Process Tracing Conference 2020
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Talk given at a conference
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Through the window of my mind: Mapping information integration and the cognitive representations nderlying self-reported risk preference
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17.09.2020
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Online, United States of America
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Steiner Markus;
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Workshop: Cognitive Perspectives on Behavior
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Talk given at a conference
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Representative Design in Psychological Assessment: A Case Study Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART)
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28.11.2019
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Basel, Switzerland
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Steiner Markus;
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SJDM Conference
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Poster
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Mapping the cognitive processes underlying self-reported risk-taking propensity
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15.11.2019
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Montreal, Canada
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Steiner Markus;
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SJDM Conference
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Poster
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Towards a typology of risk preference: Four risk profiles describe two thirds of individuals in a large sample of the U.S. population
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15.11.2019
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Montreal, Canada
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Frey Renato;
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CDS Annual Event (University of Basel)
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Talk given at a conference
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5G: Modeling risk peception and change in the Swiss general public
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27.09.2019
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Basel, Switzerland
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Frey Renato;
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SPUDM Conference
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Talk given at a conference
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Identifying robust correlates of risk preference: A systematic approach using specification curve analysis
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21.08.2019
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Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Frey Renato;
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SPUDM Conference
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Poster
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Mapping the cognitive processes underlying self-reported risk-taking propensity
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21.08.2019
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Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Steiner Markus;
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INFORMS Advances in Decision Analysis
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Individual talk
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Risk preference shares the psychometric structure of major psychological traits
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20.06.2019
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Milano, Italy
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Frey Renato;
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Seminar at the School of Management, Politecnico Milano
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Individual talk
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A psychological perspective on the construct of risk preference
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18.06.2019
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Milano, Italy
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Frey Renato;
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Conference of Experimental Psychologists TEAP
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Talk given at a conference
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Mapping the cognitive processes underlying self-reported risk-taking propensity
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17.04.2019
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London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Steiner Markus;
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Colloquium at Princeton University
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Individual talk
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Modeling risk-taking propensity to identify unique types of risk-takers
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25.03.2019
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Princeton, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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SWE PhD Conference
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Talk given at a conference
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Mapping the cognitive processes underlying self-reported risk-taking propensity
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01.02.2019
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Basel, Switzerland
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Steiner Markus;
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SJDM Conference
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Poster
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Identifying robust correlates of risk preference: A systematic approach using specification curve analysis
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16.11.2018
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New Orleans, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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Colloquium at Columbia University
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Individual talk
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The measurement of risk preference and its impact in a world full of risk and uncertainty
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16.10.2018
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New York, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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Colloquium at Princeton University
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Individual talk
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The measurement of risk preference and its impact in a world full of risk and uncertainty
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11.10.2018
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Princeton, United States of America
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Frey Renato;
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RiskDynamics DFG Research Unit Meeting
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Individual talk
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Risk preference shares the psychometric structure of major psychological traits
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20.06.2018
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Konstanz, Germany
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Frey Renato;
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Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality
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Talk given at a conference
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Beyond “risk preference”? Towards a general model of risk-taking behavior
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19.06.2018
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Berlin, Germany
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Steiner Markus;
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JDMx Conference
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Talk given at a conference
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Beyond "risk preference"? Towards a more general model of risk-taking behavior
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06.06.2018
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Konstanz, Germany
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Steiner Markus;
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Bernoulli Workshop for the Behavioral Sciences
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Talk given at a conference
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A systematic approach using specification curve analysis
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18.05.2018
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Basel, Switzerland
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Frey Renato;
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Centre for Decision Research Seminar
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Individual talk
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Risk preference shares the psychometric structure of major psychological traits
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07.03.2018
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Leeds, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Frey Renato;
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Knowledge transfer events
Active participation
Title |
Type of contribution |
Date |
Place |
Persons involved |
Dialogue Event on 5G, Risk Center ETHZ
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Talk
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03.11.2020
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Zürich, Switzerland
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Frey Renato;
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Norming the assessment of risk preference (Deutsche Industrienorm; DIN)
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Talk
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25.11.2019
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Berlin, Germany
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Frey Renato;
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Baloise Insurance Workshop
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Talk
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01.11.2018
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Basel, Switzerland
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Frey Renato;
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Communication with the public
Communication |
Title |
Media |
Place |
Year |
Awards
Associated projects
Number |
Title |
Start |
Funding scheme |
194540
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Decision making in a complex world: Towards a process-level theory of risk taking |
01.01.2022 |
Eccellenza |
Abstract
The construct of risk preference is considered to be a key building block of human behavior (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Savage, 1954). It may shape everyday decision making and is assumed to be particularly expressed in maladaptive or clinical behaviors such as impaired financial decision making, gambling, substance use, and taking excessive risks in recreational activities or regarding one’s health (Allen, Reinert, & Volk, 2001; Brodbeck, Duerrenberger, & Znoj, 2009; Frydman & Camerer, 2016; Lejuez et al., 2002; Skinner, 1982; Weber, Blais, & Betz, 2002). As individuals’ risk preferences have the potential to influence the course of entire lives, with according consequences for society (e.g., in terms of pre- or intervention; Caspi et al., 2016), the assessment of risk preference has been a focal research topic for decades. Yet, even though a plethora of different risk-taking measures has been developed (Appelt, Milch, Handgraaf, & Weber, 2011), research on the construct of risk preference has been fragmented (Schonberg, Fox, & Poldrack, 2011), leaving fundamental questions regarding the nature of the underlying construct, its measurement, and its implications for life outcomes unaddressed.We recently aimed to clarify some of these questions by adopting a large psychometric framework and collected 39 risk-taking measures from 1,507 individuals (Frey, Pedroni, Mata, Rieskamp, & Hertwig, 2017; Pedroni, Frey, Bruhin, Rieskamp, & Hertwig, 2017). Based on the solid empirical basis obtained in this study, we investigated i) the convergent validity between different measures, ii) the underlying factor structure by means of psychometric modeling, and iii) the temporal stability of risk preference as captured by these measures. Thereby, we have substantially advanced conceptual issues on the construct of risk preference and its measurement in the lab.Surprisingly, however, there is a lack of sound scientific knowledge regarding the criteria, in terms of real- life outcomes, that the different measures of risk preference ought to predict. Instead, there is a vacuum of research targeting what risks people perceive in the modern world, with its novel opportunities and threats, and the empirical evidence on the ecology of risk taking is scarce. Thus, despite of recent clarifications regarding the nature of the underlying construct (Frey et al., 2017; Highhouse, Nye, Zhang, & Rada, 2016), past studies have not satisfactorily addressed when and how the construct risk preference (as measured in the lab) generalizes to real-life outcomes.In sum, the predictive validity of the construct risk preference (and its various measures) for life outcomes remains only weakly tested. In this project, I aim to address this issue by making use of novel methodologies for ecological assessments. Specifically, the proposed studies are designed to i) create a map of risk perception and risk taking in the contemporary population, using representative methods as well as state-of-the-art methods of ecological assessment (Subproject A), ii) address a potential method confound in the typical assessment of risk preference (Subproject B), and iii) eventually assess the predictive validity of the various measures (Subproject C) by linking the first two subprojects. Ultimately, only the combination of these separate parts will permit substantial novel insights into the psychological construct of risk preference, and how we can use the established measures of risk preference for predicting real-life outcomes.
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