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A new probabilistic framework for regional volcanic risk assessment including hazards interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales

English title A new probabilistic framework for regional volcanic risk assessment including hazards interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales
Applicant Bonadonna Costanza
Number 188757
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Département des sciences de la Terre Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Start/End 01.11.2020 - 31.10.2024
Approved amount 812'232.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Geology

Keywords (9)

volcanic risk ; risk assesment; multi-hazard assessment ; probabilistic analysis ; vulnerability; fragility curves; exposure; Central Volcanic Zone (Andes); Southern Volcanic Zone (Andes)

Lay Summary (French)

Lead
La mise en place de stratégies efficaces de réduction des risques volcaniques doit se baser sur des études multidisciplinaires qui décrivent et quantifient l'interaction des éruptions avec les systèmes urbains et socio-économiques exposés. L'objectif principal de ce projet est le développement d'une approche intégrée pour l'analyse du risque volcanique qui combine plusieurs aléas (par exemple la cendre volcanique, les coulées pyroclastiques, et les coulées de lave) avec des aspects d'exposition, de vulnérabilité et de résilience à plusieurs échelles temporelles et spatiales.
Lay summary

Avec ce projet, nous prévoyons de développer un nouveau cadre de travail multidisciplinaire pour l'analyse et la réduction des risques volcaniques à l'échelle régionale en utilisant les zones volcaniques centrales et méridionales des Andes entre le Chili et l'Argentine comme cas d’étude. Avec 44 volcans étant entrés en éruption au moins une fois depuis 1800 après JC, ces deux zones représentent la zone la plus active des Andes. Notre plan de recherche comprend 5 étapes principales. Premièrement, nous produirons une stratégie régionale de classement des risques pour identifier les volcans ayant l'impact potentiel le plus élevé au Chili et / ou en Argentine. Deuxièmement, nous développerons une stratégie probabiliste pour l'évaluation régionale multi-aléas de plusieurs volcans. Nous analyserons en particulier la distribution et l'interaction des aléas à différentes échelles temporelles et spatiales. Troisièmement, nous réaliserons une évaluation probabiliste des aléas pour les 3 volcans présentant l'impact potentiel le plus élevé (analyse qui pourra ensuite être appliquée à d'autres volcans). Quatrièmement, nous identifierons et caractériserons les éléments exposés aux aléas et nous procéderons à l'évaluation des multiples dimensions de la vulnérabilité (c'est-à-dire la vulnérabilité physique, socio-économique et systémique). Enfin, nous co-produirons une évaluation des risques en collaboration avec les acteurs locaux en combinant aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité.
Les analyses du risque volcanique des dernières décennies se sont souvent arrêtées à l'étude des aléas, c'est-à-dire à leur probabilité d'occurrence, à la description des paramètres physiques associés, tels que la masse des éruptions et la hauteur de la colonne éruptive, et à l'étude de la distribution spatiale des produits volcaniques, tels que la dispersion des cendres et l'inondation des coulées pyroclastiques et de lava. Ce projet porte sur une analyse intégrée des risques volcaniques, qui considère non seulement les aléas, mais également les aspects territoriaux et socio-économiques, dont les résultats serviront à la fois à renforcer la gestion locale du risque volcanique et à stimuler la communauté scientifique internationale vers de nouvelles directions de recherche qui peuvent favoriser le développement de stratégies durables pour la gestion des risques naturels en général. Ce cadre de travail impliquera également plusieurs institutions nationales des pays concernés qui sont demandeurs de stratégies bilatérales de réduction des risques pouvant servir de modèle de coopération internationale.

 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.04.2020

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Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
129997 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.05.2010 Project funding
163152 A new integrative multi-hazard volcanic risk assessment combining multi-temporal and multi-spatial scales 01.11.2015 Project funding
149285 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.10.2013 Project funding
181030 FROM VOLCANIC HAZARD TO RISK ASSESSMENT 01.06.2018 Scientific Exchanges

Abstract

Hazards arising from volcanic eruptions have longer durations than other natural hazard events and can reach further than any other hazard. The multiple temporal and spatial scales of eruption impacts can be highly disruptive, but the availability of precursors before eruptions provides opportunities for at-risk communities to mitigate their effects. We propose to develop a framework for volcanic risk assessment by advancing current FNS-research on understanding impacts of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption in Argentina. Our framework will evolve from local impact studies to risk analysis at a regional scale that includes multiple hazards and vulnerability dimensions. The research team consists of a mix of existing and new collaborations and will fund two PhD students (Subprojects A and B) and 4 years of Postdoctoral research (Subproject C).Motivation: Despite the far-reaching effects of eruptions, an integrated framework for volcanic risk assessment that combines multiple hazards with multiple dimensions of vulnerability (e.g., physical, socio-economic, systemic) and of mitigation and resilience capacity does not exist. This helps to explain the large number of victims of eruptions despite our increased understanding of eruptive and human dynamics and monitoring capacity. Additionally, and given the increase of population exposure and systemic vulnerability, eruptions have the potential to increase their impacts in future events. Our new framework will assess risk associated with future eruptions in a given region and identify the main areas needing intervention in order to reduce risk in thematically key economic sectors (e.g. food production, civil aviation, built environment). Goal and specific objectives: The main goal of the proposed project is the development of a new framework for risk assessment that will be tested on the Central and Southern Volcanic Zones of the Andes (CVZ and SVZ) located between Chile and Argentina. The framework has global applicability, as hazards associated with CVZ and SVZ are representative of those in most other volcanic regions of the world. Main specific objectives are to: i) produce a risk-ranking strategy to identify high-impact volcanoes in a region; ii) develop a probabilistic strategy for regional multi-source and multi-process hazard assessment at various temporal and spatial scales; iii) assess exposure, various dimensions of vulnerability, mitigation and resilience capacity; iv) construct dedicated fragility curves and damage scales associated with both individual and compounding hazards; v) compile thematic risk maps combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data accounting also for the analysis of mitigation and resilience capacity; and vi) co-design the final regional risk assessment in collaboration with local and national institutions.Methods: Our probabilistic multi-hazard assessment will be compiled from field observations and numerical modelling of the three CVZ and SVZ volcanoes with the highest potential impact identified through a new dedicated risk-ranking strategy (Subproject A). The assessment of physical vulnerability will rely on field characterizations of building typology integrated with numerical modelling to adapt and extend the existing fragility curves and damage scales to the study areas (Subproject B). The assessment of systemic vulnerability, mitigation and resilience will rely on field studies, while the socio-economic vulnerability assessment will be based on the analysis of existing datasets combined with new focus groups and in-person interviews (Subproject C). Subproject C will also combine the outcomes of Subprojects A and B to co-design thematic-risk maps in collaboration with local and national institutions and, based on this case study, will develop the new risk-assessment framework.Scientific relevance and broader impact: The project addresses current goals of the international effort for Disaster Risk Reduction by developing an inclusive integrated framework that for the first time combines a probabilistic multi-source and multi-process hazard assessment with exposure, various dimensions of vulnerability and mitigation and resilience capacity. Outcomes will be disseminated mostly through scientific open-access publications, white papers, international conferences, training programs of the University of Geneva and risk-reduction programs of partner institutions (including institutions in Argentina and Chile).
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