Bento Virgílio A., Ribeiro Andreia F. S., Russo Ana, Gouveia Célia M., Cardoso Rita M., Soares Pedro M. M. (2021), The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula, in Scientific Reports
, 11(1), 15484-15484.
Villalobos-Herrera Roberto, Bevacqua Emanuele, Ribeiro Andreia F. S., Auld Graeme, Crocetti Laura, Mircheva Bilyana, Ha Minh, Zscheischler Jakob, De Michele Carlo (2021), Towards a compound-event-oriented climate model evaluation: a decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
, 21(6), 1867-1885.
The hydrological cycle is changing across the tropics due to interactions between global climate change and deforestation. The impacts on natural systems can be large, persistent, and may have major consequences for the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Many of the largest impacts on forests, savannas, agricultural systems result from the occurrence of extreme weather events. Recent weather extreme events have already caused (a) fundamental changes in the structure of tropical forests, (b) widespread losses in agriculture output, and (c) catastrophic forest and savanna fires. Because both climate average and variability are changing with the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, weather extreme events are likely to become more common and intense in the near future. Yet, quantifying how changes in climate and weather will alter the likelihood of catastrophic events in the near future remains challenging. To date, most studies have assessed the exposure of tropical ecosystems and agricultural production to future climatic changes, but quantification of the sensitive of these ecosystems to weather extreme events remain poorly understood. In this project, we will use statistical models to quantify the multiple climatic drivers of large impacts to tropical forests, savannas, agriculture, and disturbance regimes. We will further assess how climate change may alter the likelihood of compounding, catastrophic weather events to occur in the near future across Amazonia and Cerrado. To do so, we propose the following specific objectives: 1) identification of historical multivariate thresholds in climatic variables that have caused reduced vegetation productivity, peaked tropical fire activity, and losses in agricultural output; 2) risk assessment of surpassing such potential thresholds in the present and near future according to different climatic scenarios; and 3) evaluation of how stabilization of global air temperatures below 1.5°C of warming may avoid major losses in forest resources, crop production, and environmental impacts associated with tropical fires. The main outcome of the project will therefore be a well-informed risk assessment of several key ecosystem services in the Amazon and Cerrado region under different climate change scenarios. This project will further connect Swiss-based researchers and institutions in Brazil, and contribute to the training of a diverse group of Swiss and Brazilian students and postdoctoral fellows.