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Past and future of the Ozone Layer Evolution (POLE)

English title Past and future of the Ozone Layer Evolution (POLE)
Applicant Rozanov Eugene V.
Number 182239
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und Weltstrahlungszentrum
Institution of higher education Physikal.-Meteorolog. Observatorium Davos - PMOD
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.01.2019 - 31.12.2022
Approved amount 1'085'930.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences

Keywords (6)

Stratospheric aerosol; Ozone layer evolution; Numerical Modeling; Volcanos; Stratospheric dynamics; Future Climate

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Die Ozonschicht schützt Lebewesen vor der Ultraviolettstrahlung der Sonne und hat zudem einen Einfluss auf atmosphärische Winde und das Oberflächenklima. In der zweiten Hälfte des 20. Jahrhunderts wurde die Ozonschicht durch von der Industrie produzierte Chlor enthaltende ozonabbauende Substanzen beschädigt. Das Montreal-Protokoll, welches als Ziel das Einstellen dieser gefährlichen Substanzen und den Schutz der Ozonschicht verfolgte, wurde 1987 unterzeichnet. Die meisten globalen numerischen Modelle sagen eine Erholung der Ozonschicht im 21. Jahrhundert voraus, die Anzeichen der Regeneration sind jedoch nicht streng über Beobachtungsdaten ermittelt worden. Des Weiteren existieren noch immer verschiedene Bedrohungen für die Ozonschicht, deren Auswirkungen auf die Ozonschicht Regeneration untersucht werden sollten.
Lay summary

Inhalt und Ziel des Forschungsprojekts

Unsere übergeordneten Ziele sind das Verhalten der Ozonschicht in der Vergangenheit zu verstehen, ihre zukünftige Entwicklung vorhersagen zu können und zusätzliche Massnahmen vorzuschlagen, welche die Regeneration der Ozonschicht sicherstellen sollen. Im Einzelnen werden wir (i) die vergangenen Trends der Ozonschicht in der unteren Stratosphäre erklären, (ii) die Rolle des Montreal-Protokolls im Unterstützen der Ozonschicht-Regeneration und im Schützen des Klimas neu aufarbeiten und (iii) das zukünftige Verhalten der Ozonschicht voraussagen unter Berücksichtigung sehr kurzlebiger Spezies, neu entdeckter ozonabbauenden Substanzen, der Sonnen- und Vulkanaktivität, so wie möglicher Klimainterventionen. Wir möchten zusätzlich (iv) die Unsicherheiten in der Aerosolbelastung bestimmen, indem wir an internationalen Projekten teilnehmen und (v) unser Aerosol-Mikrophysikmodell auf das Erforschen von möglichen explosionsartigen Vulkanausbrüchen in der Zukunft vorbereiten.

Wissenschaftlicher und sozialer Kontext des Forschungsprojekts

Unsere Arbeit wird neue und wichtige Informationen über den Zustand der Ozonschicht und ihrer Regeneration liefern, sowie über zukünftige Klimaveränderungen. Unsere Resultate werden einen Weg aufzeigen können, wie die Regeneration der Ozonschicht erreicht werden kann, selbst wenn extrem unvorteilhafte zukünftige Szenarien eintreffen sollten, und werden es den politischen Entscheidungsträgern erlauben, eine geeignete Strategie zum Umgehen von Umweltrisiken zu wählen. Das Projekt wird zusätzlich die Teilnahme der Schweiz an internationalen Ozon-Gutachten ausbauen und den Standpunkt der Schweiz in Bezug auf nachhaltige Entwicklung untermauern.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 19.10.2018

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
The ozone layer protects living organisms from the solar ultraviolet radiation and impacts also the atmospheric winds and surface climate. In the second half of 20th century the ozone layer was harmed by chlorine containing ozone destroying substances produced by industries. The Montreal Protocol aimed at phasing out these dangerous species and saving ozone layer was approved in 1987. Most of the global numerical models project the ozone layer recovery in the 21st century, however the recovery signs of it have not been robustly established from observational data. Moreover, there are still a number of different threats for the ozone layer and their implication for the ozone layer recovery should be studied.
Lay summary

Content and goal of the research project
Our overarching goal is to understand the past behavior, predict future evolution of the ozone layer and recommend additional measures to guarantee the ozone recovery. In detail, we will (i) explain past ozone layer trends in the lower stratosphere, (ii) revisit the role of the Montreal Protocol in sustaining recovery of the ozone layer and protecting climate and (iii) project future behavior of the ozone layer considering very-short lived species, newly discovered ozone depleting substances, solar and volcanic activity, as well as possible climate intervention. We also aim to evaluate (iv) uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol loading, by participating in international projects and (v) prepare our aerosol microphysics model for the study of possible future explosive volcanic eruptions.

Scientific and social context of the research project

Our work will provide new and important information about the ozone layer state and recovery as well as about future climate changes. Our results will advise a way to achieve ozone recovery even if extremely unfavorable future scenarios play out and allow policy makers to choose proper strategy to avoid environmental risks. The project will also allow to expand Switzerland participation in international ozone assessments as well as to underpin Switzerland policy positions on sustainable development.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 19.10.2018

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Application of CCM SOCOL-AERv2-BE to cosmogenic beryllium isotopes: description and validation for polar regions
Golubenko Kseniia, Rozanov Eugene, Kovaltsov Gennady, Leppänen Ari-Pekka, Sukhodolov Timofei, Usoskin Ilya (2021), Application of CCM SOCOL-AERv2-BE to cosmogenic beryllium isotopes: description and validation for polar regions, in Geoscientific Model Development, 14(12), 7605-7620.
Modeling the Sulfate Aerosol Evolution After Recent Moderate Volcanic Activity, 2008–2012
Brodowsky Christina, Sukhodolov Timofei, Feinberg Aryeh, Höpfner Michael, Peter Thomas, Stenke Andrea, Rozanov Eugene (2021), Modeling the Sulfate Aerosol Evolution After Recent Moderate Volcanic Activity, 2008–2012, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(23), 1-24.
Iodine chemistry in the chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2-I
Karagodin-Doyennel Arseniy, Rozanov Eugene, Sukhodolov Timofei, Egorova Tatiana, Saiz-Lopez Alfonso, Cuevas Carlos A., Fernandez Rafael P., Sherwen Tomás, Volkamer Rainer, Koenig Theodore K., Giroud Tanguy, Peter Thomas (2021), Iodine chemistry in the chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2-I, in Geoscientific Model Development, 14(10), 6623-6645.
Editorial: The Evolution of the Stratospheric Ozone
Chiodo Gabriel, Liu Jane, Revell Laura, Sukhodolov Timofei, Zhang Jiankai (2021), Editorial: The Evolution of the Stratospheric Ozone, in Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 773826.
Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation
Sukhodolov Timofei, Egorova Tatiana, Stenke Andrea, Ball William T., Brodowsky Christina, Chiodo Gabriel, Feinberg Aryeh, Friedel Marina, Karagodin-Doyennel Arseniy, Peter Thomas, Sedlacek Jan, Vattioni Sandro, Rozanov Eugene (2021), Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation, in Geoscientific Model Development, 14(9), 5525-5560.
Representativeness of the Arosa/Davos Measurements for the Analysis of the Global Total Column Ozone Behavior
Rozanov Eugene, Egorova Tatiana, Egli Luca, Karagodin-Doyennel Arseniy, Sukhodolov Timofei, Schill Herbert, Stübi Rene, Gröbner Julian (2021), Representativeness of the Arosa/Davos Measurements for the Analysis of the Global Total Column Ozone Behavior, in Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 1-11.
Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble
Clyne Margot, Lamarque Jean-Francois, Mills Michael J., Khodri Myriam, Ball William, Bekki Slimane, Dhomse Sandip S., Lebas Nicolas, Mann Graham, Marshall Lauren, Niemeier Ulrike, Poulain Virginie, Robock Alan, Rozanov Eugene, Schmidt Anja, Stenke Andrea, Sukhodolov Timofei, Timmreck Claudia, Toohey Matthew, Tummon Fiona, Zanchettin Davide, Zhu Yunqian, Toon Owen B. (2021), Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(5), 3317-3343.
The response of mesospheric H<sub>2</sub>O and CO to solar irradiance variability in models and observations
Karagodin-Doyennel Arseniy, Rozanov Eugene, Kuchar Ales, Ball William, Arsenovic Pavle, Remsberg Ellis, Jöckel Patrick, Kunze Markus, Plummer David A., Stenke Andrea, Marsh Daniel, Kinnison Doug, Peter Thomas (2021), The response of mesospheric H<sub>2</sub>O and CO to solar irradiance variability in models and observations, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(1), 201-216.
Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
Ball William T., Chiodo Gabriel, Abalos Marta, Alsing Justin, Stenke Andrea (2020), Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(16), 9737-9752.
Study of the dependence of long-term stratospheric ozone trends on local solar time
Maillard Barras Eliane, Haefele Alexander, Nguyen Liliane, Tummon Fiona, Ball William T., Rozanov Eugene V., Rüfenacht Rolf, Hocke Klemens, Bernet Leonie, Kämpfer Niklaus, Nedoluha Gerald, Boyd Ian (2020), Study of the dependence of long-term stratospheric ozone trends on local solar time, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(14), 8453-8471.
Preface: Ozone Evolution in the Past and Future
Rozanov Eugene (2020), Preface: Ozone Evolution in the Past and Future, in Atmosphere, 11(7), 709-709.
Revisited Reference Solar Proton Event of 23 February 1956: Assessment of the Cosmogenic‐Isotope Method Sensitivity to Extreme Solar Events
Usoskin Ilya G., Koldobskiy Sergey A., Kovaltsov Gennady A., Rozanov Eugene V., Sukhodolov Timofei V., Mishev Alexander L., Mironova Irina A. (2020), Revisited Reference Solar Proton Event of 23 February 1956: Assessment of the Cosmogenic‐Isotope Method Sensitivity to Extreme Solar Events, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 125(6), e2020JA027.
Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century
Egorova Tatiana, Rozanov Eugene, Arsenovic Pavle, Sukhodolov Timofei (2020), Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century, in Atmosphere, 11(2), 169-169.
Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites
Kuai Le, Bowman Kevin W., Miyazaki Kazuyuki, Deushi Makoto, Revell Laura, Rozanov Eugene, Paulot Fabien, Strode Sarah, Conley Andrew, Lamarque Jean-François, Jöckel Patrick, Plummer David A., Oman Luke D., Worden Helen, Kulawik Susan, Paynter David, Stenke Andrea, Kunze Markus (2020), Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(1), 281-301.
Extreme Solar Particle Storms
Miyake Fusa, Usoskin Ilya, Poluianov Stepan (2019), Extreme Solar Particle Storms, IOP Publishing, UK.
Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period
Zhao Yuanhong, Saunois Marielle, Bousquet Philippe, Lin Xin, Berchet Antoine, Hegglin Michaela I., Canadell Josep G., Jackson Robert B., Hauglustaine Didier A., Szopa Sophie, Stavert Ann R., Abraham Nathan Luke, Archibald Alex T., Bekki Slimane, Deushi Makoto, Jöckel Patrick, Josse Béatrice, Kinnison Douglas, Kirner Ole, Marécal Virginie, O'Connor Fiona M., Plummer David A., Revell Laura E., Rozanov Eugene, et al. (2019), Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19(21), 13701-13723.
Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability
Ball William T., Alsing Justin, Staehelin Johannes, Davis Sean M., Froidevaux Lucien, Peter Thomas (2019), Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19(19), 12731-12748.
Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
Feinberg Aryeh, Sukhodolov Timofei, Luo Bei-Ping, Rozanov Eugene, Winkel Lenny H. E., Peter Thomas, Stenke Andrea (2019), Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, in Geoscientific Model Development, 12(9), 3863-3887.
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models
Gillett Zoe E., Arblaster Julie M., Dittus Andrea J., Deushi Makoto, Jöckel Patrick, Kinnison Douglas E., Morgenstern Olaf, Plummer David A., Revell Laura E., Rozanov Eugene, Schofield Robyn, Stenke Andrea, Stone Kane A., Tilmes Simone (2019), Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models, in Journal of Climate, 32(11), 3131-3151.

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
153302 Variability of Solar Irradiance and its implications on the terrestrial middle atmosphere 01.04.2014 Project funding (Div. I-III)
163206 Study to determine Spectral Solar Irradiance and its impact on the middle atmosphere (SIMA) 01.10.2015 Project funding (Div. I-III)
147659 Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II 01.01.2014 Sinergia
169241 Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC) 01.10.2016 Project funding (Div. I-III)
169241 Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC) 01.10.2016 Project funding (Div. I-III)
130478 Impact of Artificial Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols investigated with a coupled aerosol-chemistry climate model (IASSA) 01.11.2010 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

Background: The ozone layer plays an important role in shielding the biosphere from dangerous solar ultraviolet radiation, shapes the temperature structure of the stratosphere, and consequently has a direct impact on the general circulation and surface climate. The discovery of the ozone hole led to a strong limitation of the production of halogen containing ozone destroying substances (hODS) in 1987 through the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments (MPA). This measure aimed to be a protective hand over the ozone layer. While global models project an intact future for the ozone layer in the 21st century, its recovery has not been robustly established from observational data. Rationale: The widely expected future ozone recovery and the efficiency of the MPA is now being questioned due to disagreement between models and observations. As such, this now inspires a search for missing processes or unaccounted driving factors in models. Recent publications suggested several candidates: (i) changes in the meridional circulation in a warming climate; (ii) a decline of the solar activity; (iii) the influence of halogen containing very-short lived species; (iv) emissions of halogen containing gases unaccounted for by the MPA; (v) uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol loading; (vi) the treatment of the diffusion in the global models. All these issues will be carefully investigated in the proposed project. Overall objective: Understand the past behavior, and future prediction of ozone layer evolution. Specific aims: (i) Explain past ozone layer trends in the lower stratosphere. (ii) Revisit the role of the Montreal Protocol in sustaining recovery of the ozone layer and protecting climate. (iii) Project future behavior of the ozone layer considering very-short lived species, newly discovered hODS, solar and volcanic activity, as well as possible climate intervention. (iv) Investigate and suggest additional measures to guarantee ozone layer recovery. (v) Evaluate uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol loading, by participating in international ISA-MIP project, and estimate its potential impact on the ozone in the lower stratosphere. (vi) Validate the aerosol microphysics module and prepare for future explosive volcanic eruptions participating in international VolRES project.Methods: We intend to use our new atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model (AOACCM) SOCOLv4 which consists of MPI-MET Earth System model (ESM) coupled to chemical and sulfate aerosol modules. The model output will be compared to observations and other models using comprehensive statistical tools. Expected results: (i) Establish the processes responsible for the persistent ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. (ii) Newly assessing and judging the benefits of the MPA, which is an issue of utmost importance for sustainable development of the environment. (iii) Assess the potential danger for the ozone layer recovery from very-short lived substances, newly discovered hODS, solar and volcanic activity, as well as possible climate intervention. (iv) Suggest possible additional measures to guarantee ozone layer recovery. (v) Characterize the uncertainties in stratospheric aerosol loading. Impact: The project will provide understanding and direction how to protect the ozone layer and to make more accurate climate predictions. An impact on society and policy makers is foreseen, because we will suggest a way to guarantee ozone recovery even if extremely unfavorable future scenarios play out. The project will allow to continue Switzerland participation in international assessments and activities aimed at the ozone layer conservation as well as to underpin Switzerland policy positions on sustainable development.
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