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Severe Weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a Changing Climate (SWALDRIC)

English title Severe Weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a Changing Climate (SWALDRIC)
Applicant Schär Christoph
Number 180587
Funding scheme Croatian-Swiss Research Programme (CSRP)
Research institution Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.03.2019 - 30.11.2022
Approved amount 337'579.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Meteorology

Keywords (4)

Hail and Lightning observations; Climate change; Severe convective storms; Convection-resolving simulations

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Wie verändern sich schwere Gewitter mit dem Klimawandel? Wie können hochauflösende Klimamodelle dazu beitragen, die Anpassung an den Klimawandel voranzutreiben?
Lay summary

Schwere Gewitter – oft verbunden mit Hagel, Blitzschlag, Starkniederschlägen, Überschwemmungen und Windböen – fordern oft Menschenleben und verursachen jedes Jahr enorme ökonomische Schäden. Obwohl das Verhalten von schweren Gewittersystemen in den Grundzügen verstanden ist, stellen Gewitter gewaltige Herausforderungen an Praxis und Wissenschaft. Einerseits sind Beobachtungen von Gewittern oft unvollständig und sporadisch. Andererseits lassen sich Gewitter in konventionellen Klimamodellen aufgrund ihrer kleinräumigen Struktur nicht simulieren.

Das vorliegende Projekt dient der Erforschung solcher Ereignisse im Grossraum der Alpen auf Zeitskalen von Jahrzehnten bis Jahrhunderten. Zu diesem Zweck sollen hochauflösende Klimamodelle eingesetzt werden, welche moderne Hardware-Architekturen optimal nutzen. Zur Überprüfung und Weiterentwicklung der Modelle werden umfangreiche  Beobachtungsdaten verwendet, darunter auch Daten eines aussergewöhnlich dichten Netzwerks von Hagel-Detektoren in Kroatien. Mit hochauflösenden Klimamodellen soll insbesondere auch untersucht werden, wie sich die Häufigkeit und der Charakter solcher Unwetter mit dem Klimawandel verändert. Das Projekt beinhaltet eine enge Zusammenarbeit mit zwei kroatischen Forschungsgruppen. Die Resultate sollen helfen, die Anpassung an den Klimawandel voranzutreiben und zu optimieren.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 08.02.2019

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Gesuchsteller/innen Ausland

Employees

Name Institute

Publications

Publication
Performance of HAILCAST and the Lightning Potential Index in simulating hailstorms in Croatia in a mesoscale model – Sensitivity to the PBL and microphysics parameterization schemes
Malečić Barbara, Telišman Prtenjak Maja, Horvath Kristian, Jelić Damjan, Mikuš Jurković Petra, Ćorko Karol, Mahović Nataša Strelec (2022), Performance of HAILCAST and the Lightning Potential Index in simulating hailstorms in Croatia in a mesoscale model – Sensitivity to the PBL and microphysics parameterization schemes, in Atmospheric Research, 272, 106143-106143.
Estimation of Turbulent Triplet Covariances for Bora Flows
Večenaj Željko, Malečić Barbara, Grisogono Branko (2021), Estimation of Turbulent Triplet Covariances for Bora Flows, in Fluids, 6(12), 452-452.
The Oxford Handbook of Non-Synoptic Wind Storms
KozmarHrvoje, GrisogonoBranko (2021), The Oxford Handbook of Non-Synoptic Wind Storms, in Oxford Handbooks Online, 1.
A New Approach for the Analysis of Deep Convective Events: Thunderstorm Intensity Index
Jelić Damjan, Telišman Prtenjak Maja, Malečić Barbara, Belušić Vozila Andreina, Megyeri Otília Anna, Renko Tanja (2021), A New Approach for the Analysis of Deep Convective Events: Thunderstorm Intensity Index, in Atmosphere, 12(7), 908-908.
Hail Climatology Along the Northeastern Adriatic
Jelić Damjan, Megyeri Otília Anna, Malečić Barbara, Belušić Vozila Andreina, Strelec Mahović Nataša, Telišman Prtenjak Maja (2020), Hail Climatology Along the Northeastern Adriatic, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(23), 1.
Kilometer-Scale Climate Models: Prospects and Challenges
Schär Christoph, Fuhrer Oliver, Arteaga Andrea, Ban Nikolina, Charpilloz Christophe, Di Girolamo Salvatore, Hentgen Laureline, Hoefler Torsten, Lapillonne Xavier, Leutwyler David, Osterried Katherine, Panosetti Davide, Rüdisühli Stefan, Schlemmer Linda, Schulthess Thomas C., Sprenger Michael, Ubbiali Stefano, Wernli Heini (2020), Kilometer-Scale Climate Models: Prospects and Challenges, in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(5), E567-E587.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ) Croatia (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
MeteoSwiss Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Research Infrastructure
Department of Geophysics (GFZ), University of Zagreb Croatia (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
8th International Conference on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean Talk given at a conference Malečić et al.,: Lightning Potential Index performance in convection-permitting simulations of hail events in Croatia – sensitivity to microphysics and PBL schemes 25.05.2021 Online, Croatia Grisogono Branko;
EGU General Assembly 2021 Poster Jelić et al.,: Inspection of new thunderstorm intensity index 19.04.2021 Vienna (online), Austria Grisogono Branko;
3rd European Hail Workshop Talk given at a conference Malečić et al.,: Performance of HAILCAST and Lightning Potential Index in simulating hail events over Croatia – sensitivity to microphysics and PBL parameterization schemes 15.03.2021 Karlsruhe (Online), Germany Grisogono Branko;
3rd European Hail Workshop Poster Jelić et al.,: Potential uses of new Thunderstorm Intensity Index 15.03.2021 Karlsruhe (online), Germany Grisogono Branko;
3rd European Hail Workshop Talk given at a conference Cui et al., Exploring hail and lightning mechanisms over the Alpine-Adriatic region using HAILCAST and LPI in a convection-resolving model 15.03.2021 Online event, Germany Cui Ruoyi; Schär Christoph;
ICON/COSMO/CLM/ART User Seminar (ICCARUS) Talk given at a conference Cui et al., Exploring hail and lightning mechanisms over the Alpine-Adriatic region using HAILCAST and LPI in a convection-resolving model. 08.03.2021 Online event, Germany Cui Ruoyi; Schär Christoph;
Challenges in Meteorology 7 Talk given at a conference Jelić et al. Estimation of hail using lightning vs radar data, Case study of 25 June 2017 04.11.2020 Zagreb (online event), Croatia Grisogono Branko;
Challenges in Meteorology 7 Talk given at a conference Malečić et al., Application of the WRF-HAILCAST model to the Croatian area – sensitivity to PBL schemes 04.11.2020 Zagreb (online event), Croatia Grisogono Branko;
EGU 2020 Talk given at a conference Malečić et al., Simulation of hail events with the WRF - HAILCAST model - sensitivity to microphysics and PBL parameterization schemes 04.05.2020 Vienna (online), Austria Grisogono Branko;
EGU 2020 Talk given at a conference Jelic et al. Estimation of hail occurrence from satellite, lightning and radar data in Croatia 04.05.2020 Vienna (online event), Austria Grisogono Branko;
10th European Conference on Severe Storms Poster Jelić D et al: Capabilities of Eulerian based lightning jump algorithm 04.11.2019 Krakow, Poland Grisogono Branko;
10th European Conference on Severe Storms Poster Malečić B et al: 04.11.2019 Krakow, Poland Grisogono Branko;
EMS Annual Meeting Poster Ćorko K et al: Analysis of modeled hail parameters obtained by numerical mesoscale WRF-HAILCAST model 09.09.2019 Copenhagen, Denmark Grisogono Branko;
5th PannEx Workshop Poster The SWALDRIC project 03.06.2019 Novi Sad, Serbien Grisogono Branko; Schär Christoph; Fuhrer Oliver;


Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
201792 Seamless coupling of kilometer-resolution weather predictions and climate simulations with hail impact assessments for multiple sectors (scClim) 01.01.2022 Sinergia
154486 Cloud-resolving climate modeling on future supercomputing platforms 01.05.2015 Sinergia

Abstract

Severe convective storms are a primary cause of catastrophic loss through property damage and life-threatening weather conditions. These events are characterized by the presence of heavy convective storms, lightning that can initiate wildfires, strong and damaging winds (e.g., wind gusts), as well as heavy rain that can cause flash floods and hail. Due to sparse observations and inability of conventional climate models to represent these local weather phenomena, our understanding of severe weather events and their response to a changing climate is still very limited. Advances in computational power and recent developments in atmospheric modeling have enabled the use of climate models at kilometer-scale horizontal resolutions. These so-called convection-resolving models (CRMs) resolve deep convective events such as thunderstorms and rain showers. Such models have been used for numerical weather forecasting purposes for over a decade. Although these models improve the simulation of heavy precipitation, their application for climate studies and the analysis of severe convective events, like lightning, hail and severe winds, has been very limited. The proposed collaboration will investigate severe weather events over Europe, with a specific focus on the Alpine and Adriatic region. The main goals of the study are to better understand severe weather events, to evaluate their representation in weather and climate models, and to investigate their response to climate change. Key elements of the proposal are: The exploitation of a unique Croatian hail-pad data set, the exploration and intercomparison of a wide range of different atmospheric (weather and climate) modeling systems, and the use of kilometer-scale pan-European decade-long simulations using the first regional climate modeling framework able to run entirely on Graphics Processing Units (COSMO-GPU).The SWALDRIC project is organized into three parts, which will be addressed through three PhD projects that will focus on the analysis and climatology of observational data, performing, intercompare and validate high-resolution case study simulations using hail and lightning diagnostics, and conduct and analyze decade-long European-scale climate simulations at 2 km resolution. The collaboration of Croatian and Swiss scientists in SWALDRIC is essential for achieving the project goals, and will include sharing model components, model data, observations, experience in using severe weather diagnostics, and exchange of knowledge. The project will not only deepen the collaboration of Swiss and Croatian scientists, but will also contribute to the general understanding of severe weather events, and their response to the further warming and moistening of the atmosphere. This will be the first time that climate changes of severe weather events will be addressed in such high-resolution simulations over pan-European scales.
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