climate dynamics; ice core analysis; climate modelling; paleoclimate modelling; climate change projections; polar drilling technology; greenhouse gases; paleoceanographic tracer modeling
Kim Woon Mi, Raible Christoph C. (2021), Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model, in Climate of the Past
, 17(2), 887-911.
Raible Christoph C., Pinto Joaquim G., Ludwig Patrick, Messmer Martina (2021), A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future, in WIREs Climate Change
, 12(1), e680.
Zscheischler Jakob, Naveau Philippe, Martius Olivia, Engelke Sebastian, Raible Christoph C. (2021), Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes, in Earth System Dynamics
, 12(1), 1-16.
McConnell Joseph R., Sigl Michael, Plunkett Gill, Burke Andrea, Kim Woon Mi, Raible Christoph C., Wilson Andrew I., Manning Joseph G., Ludlow Francis, Chellman Nathan J., Innes Helen M., Yang Zhen, Larsen Jessica F., Schaefer Janet R., Kipfstuhl Sepp, Mojtabavi Seyedhamidreza, Wilhelms Frank, Opel Thomas, Meyer Hanno, Steffensen Jørgen Peder (2020), Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
, 117(27), 15443-15449.
Sousa Pedro M., Ramos Alexandre M., Raible Christoph C., Messmer M., Tomé Ricardo, Pinto Joaquim G., Trigo Ricardo M. (2020), North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall, in Journal of Climate
, 33(1), 263-279.
Born Andreas, Imhof Michael A., Stocker Thomas F. (2019), An efficient surface energy–mass balance model for snow and ice, in The Cryosphere
, 13(5), 1529-1546.
Pfister Patrik L, Stocker Thomas F (2018), The realized warming fraction: a multi-model sensitivity study, in Environmental Research Letters
, 13(12), 124024-124024.
Raible Christoph C., Messmer Martina, Lehner Flavio, Stocker Thomas F., Blender Richard (2018), Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century, in Climate of the Past
, 14(10), 1499-1514.
Kilic Cevahir, Lunkeit Frank, Raible Christoph C., Stocker Thomas F. (2018), Stable Equatorial Ice Belts at High Obliquity in a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model, in The Astrophysical Journal
, 864(2), 106-106.
Fischer Hubertus, Meissner Katrin J., Mix Alan C., Abram Nerilie J., Austermann Jacqueline, Brovkin Victor, Capron Emilie, Colombaroli Daniele, Daniau Anne-Laure, Dyez Kelsey A., Felis Thomas, Finkelstein Sarah A., Jaccard Samuel L., McClymont Erin L., Rovere Alessio, Sutter Johannes, Wolff Eric W., Affolter Stéphane, Bakker Pepijn, Ballesteros-Cánovas Juan Antonio, Barbante Carlo, Caley Thibaut, Carlson Anders E., Churakova Olga, et al. (2018), Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond, in Nature Geoscience
, 11(7), 474-485.
Gómez-Navarro Juan José, Raible Christoph C., Bozhinova Denica, Martius Olivia, García Valero Juan Andrés, Montávez Juan Pedro (2018), A new region-aware bias-correction method for simulated precipitation in areas of complex orography, in Geoscientific Model Development
, 11(6), 2231-2247.
Grieger Jens, Leckebusch Gregor C., Raible Christoph C., Rudeva Irina, Simmonds Ian (2018), Subantarctic cyclones identified by 14 tracking methods, and their role for moisture transports into the continent, in Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
, 70(1), 1-18.
Pfister Patrik L., Stocker Thomas F. (2017), State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity, in Geophysical Research Letters
, 44(20), 10,643-10,653.
Lehner Flavio, Coats Sloan, Stocker Thomas F., Pendergrass Angeline G., Sanderson Benjamin M., Raible Christoph C., Smerdon Jason E. (2017), Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climatesDrought in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Climates, in Geophysical Research Letters
, 44(14), 7419-7428.
This project explores Pleistocene climate processes using a combined experimental and modelling approach. First, new greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration measurements on polar ice cores in sub-millennial resolution before 150,000 years will permit the identification of climate-carbon cycle processes during phases of large climate change. Leads and lags of GHGs with respect to climate change and interhemispheric coupling will be determined. The GHG radiative forcing will be better constrained with these new data. The project also includes a component of technological development: for our rapid access ice core drill RADIX we plan to design and construct a dust logger that will permit to count the sequence of ice ages in a bore hole. This unique in situ age determination of various Antarctic sites will be an important contribution by the University of Bern to the next European deep drilling project in Antarctica (Beyond EPICA: Oldest ICE) which aims at producing an ice core that covers the past 1.5 million years. Second with our Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, the Bern3D multi-tracer model, and with the comprehen¬sive Earth System Model CESM2 we will explore physical climate processes over the past 1.5 million years, and natural and forced climate variability on time scales from years to many millennia, respectively. To make progress in understanding ice age processes we propose a significant upgrade of the Bern3D model by coupling it to an ice sheet model and calibrating the coupled model for climate states of today, the last glacial maximum (LGM), the past Interglacial and others. The cost-efficiency of the model permits us to use the model for the simulation of entire glacial-interglacial cycles, and the large ocean tracer palette including Pa, Th, Nd, 13C, 14C, Be, and noble gases, enable the application of the Bern3D to many paleoclimatic problems: the stability of the atmosphere-ocean system and millennial changes during the ice ages, competing hypotheses explaining the Mid Pleistocene Transition, and noble gases as new tracers to reconstruct variations in ocean heat content and in the Earth's energy balance. The Bern3D model will also be used for massive ensemble simulation of the future to study the implications of climate targets such as the 1.5°C and 2°C targets of the Paris Agreement. Our model will produce new policy-relevant information through a probabilistic approach, consideration of multiple climate system targets, and various CO2 reduction scenarios. Simulations with the CESM2 model from 3500 years before present to the year 2300 in a seamless manner allows us to investigate the relative influence of natural variations, orbital and volcanic forcing on, e.g., modes of variability and extreme events. A new record of volcanic forcing will be used in our simulations. We will focus on a critical assessment of paleoclimate proxies in order to enhance the quantitative understanding and interpretation of them. Our simulations will make unique contributions to the international efforts of both PMIP4 and CMIP6, the modelling intercomparison projects addressing the past and the future, respectively.