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Climate and Environmental Physics: Pleistocene Earth System Evolution (pleistoCEP)

English title Climate and Environmental Physics: Pleistocene Earth System Evolution (pleistoCEP)
Applicant Stocker Thomas
Number 172745
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Klima und Umweltphysik Physikalisches Institut Universität Bern
Institution of higher education University of Berne - BE
Main discipline Other disciplines of Physics
Start/End 01.04.2017 - 31.03.2021
Approved amount 1'607'000.00
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All Disciplines (4)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Physics
Oceanography
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy

Keywords (8)

climate dynamics; ice core analysis; climate modelling; paleoclimate modelling; climate change projections; polar drilling technology; greenhouse gases; paleoceanographic tracer modeling

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Klimaprozesse während den letzten 1.5 Millionen Jahren sollen mit einer Kombination von Klimamodellen, und Messungen der Treibhausgaskonzentrationen an polaren Eisbohrkernen besser verstanden werden.
Lay summary

Prozesse im Ozean, auf dem Land und in der Atmosphäre prägen, zusammen mit Variationen der Konzentrationen der wichtigsten Treibhausgase (CO2, Methan und Lachgas) das Klima der letzten 1.5 Millionen Jahre. Zunächst soll die Energiebilanz der Erde durch besser aufgelöste Rekonstruktionen von CO2, CH4 und N2O aus polaren Eisbohrkernen verfeinert werden. Schnellbohrungen in der Antarktis sollen bei der Wahl des Bohrorts der nächsten Tiefbohrung in der Antarktis Informationen über das maximale Alter des Eises liefern. Der Schnellbohrer RADIX wird in diesem Projekt weiterentwickelt. Das Bern3D Modell wird mit der Kopplung einer Landeiskomponente erweitert, so dass Simulationen über mehrere 100'000 Jahre möglich werden und quantitative Informationen zum Verständnis der Eiszeit-Zyklen liefern. Dabei werden neue paläozeanographische Spurenstoffe (Nd und Pa/Th) sowie die Edelgaskonzentrationen explizit simuliert und mit Paläoklimadaten aus verschiedenen Archiven verglichen. Für die Fragestellung von natürlicher Klimavariabilität der letzten 3500 Jahre und der kommenden 300 Jahre wird ein vollständiges 3-dimensionale Klimamodell verwendet (CESM2). Dabei berücksichtigen wir die neusten Rekonstruktionen der Vulkanaktivität und fokussieren auf Prozesse in der Nordhemisphäre.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 05.04.2017

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Project partner

Publications

Publication
Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model
Kim Woon Mi, Raible Christoph C. (2021), Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model, in Climate of the Past, 17(2), 887-911.
A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future
Raible Christoph C., Pinto Joaquim G., Ludwig Patrick, Messmer Martina (2021), A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future, in WIREs Climate Change, 12(1), e680.
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Zscheischler Jakob, Naveau Philippe, Martius Olivia, Engelke Sebastian, Raible Christoph C. (2021), Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes, in Earth System Dynamics, 12(1), 1-16.
Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom
McConnell Joseph R., Sigl Michael, Plunkett Gill, Burke Andrea, Kim Woon Mi, Raible Christoph C., Wilson Andrew I., Manning Joseph G., Ludlow Francis, Chellman Nathan J., Innes Helen M., Yang Zhen, Larsen Jessica F., Schaefer Janet R., Kipfstuhl Sepp, Mojtabavi Seyedhamidreza, Wilhelms Frank, Opel Thomas, Meyer Hanno, Steffensen Jørgen Peder (2020), Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(27), 15443-15449.
North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall
Sousa Pedro M., Ramos Alexandre M., Raible Christoph C., Messmer M., Tomé Ricardo, Pinto Joaquim G., Trigo Ricardo M. (2020), North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall, in Journal of Climate, 33(1), 263-279.
An efficient surface energy–mass balance model for snow and ice
Born Andreas, Imhof Michael A., Stocker Thomas F. (2019), An efficient surface energy–mass balance model for snow and ice, in The Cryosphere, 13(5), 1529-1546.
The realized warming fraction: a multi-model sensitivity study
Pfister Patrik L, Stocker Thomas F (2018), The realized warming fraction: a multi-model sensitivity study, in Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 124024-124024.
Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century
Raible Christoph C., Messmer Martina, Lehner Flavio, Stocker Thomas F., Blender Richard (2018), Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century, in Climate of the Past, 14(10), 1499-1514.
Stable Equatorial Ice Belts at High Obliquity in a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model
Kilic Cevahir, Lunkeit Frank, Raible Christoph C., Stocker Thomas F. (2018), Stable Equatorial Ice Belts at High Obliquity in a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model, in The Astrophysical Journal, 864(2), 106-106.
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Fischer Hubertus, Meissner Katrin J., Mix Alan C., Abram Nerilie J., Austermann Jacqueline, Brovkin Victor, Capron Emilie, Colombaroli Daniele, Daniau Anne-Laure, Dyez Kelsey A., Felis Thomas, Finkelstein Sarah A., Jaccard Samuel L., McClymont Erin L., Rovere Alessio, Sutter Johannes, Wolff Eric W., Affolter Stéphane, Bakker Pepijn, Ballesteros-Cánovas Juan Antonio, Barbante Carlo, Caley Thibaut, Carlson Anders E., Churakova Olga, et al. (2018), Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond, in Nature Geoscience, 11(7), 474-485.
A new region-aware bias-correction method for simulated precipitation in areas of complex orography
Gómez-Navarro Juan José, Raible Christoph C., Bozhinova Denica, Martius Olivia, García Valero Juan Andrés, Montávez Juan Pedro (2018), A new region-aware bias-correction method for simulated precipitation in areas of complex orography, in Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2231-2247.
Subantarctic cyclones identified by 14 tracking methods, and their role for moisture transports into the continent
Grieger Jens, Leckebusch Gregor C., Raible Christoph C., Rudeva Irina, Simmonds Ian (2018), Subantarctic cyclones identified by 14 tracking methods, and their role for moisture transports into the continent, in Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 70(1), 1-18.
State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
Pfister Patrik L., Stocker Thomas F. (2017), State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity, in Geophysical Research Letters, 44(20), 10,643-10,653.
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climatesDrought in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Climates
Lehner Flavio, Coats Sloan, Stocker Thomas F., Pendergrass Angeline G., Sanderson Benjamin M., Raible Christoph C., Smerdon Jason E. (2017), Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climatesDrought in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Climates, in Geophysical Research Letters, 44(14), 7419-7428.

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Statistical Characteristics of Global Daily Extreme Precipitation during the last 3350 years (1501BC – 1849 AD) 30.04.2021 Vienna but online, Austria Raible Christoph C.; Messmer Martina; Kim Woon Mi;
Politologie Jahreskongress 2021 Talk given at a conference Climate Crisis: How effective was "science-based" policy? 04.02.2021 Bern, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
Swiss Academies: Science Communication Talk given at a conference 1. Fakten zur heissen Luft; 2. Fakten zu coolen Visionen 16.09.2020 Solothurn, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Sensitivity of high-resolution precipitation to physics parameterization options in WRF over equatorial regions 08.05.2020 Vienna but online, Austria Messmer Martina; Raible Christoph C.; Stocker Thomas;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Using a long-term climate simulation to address future changes in Western Europe precipitation regimes due to global warming 07.05.2020 Vienna, but online, Austria Raible Christoph C.; Messmer Martina;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster A millennium-length temperature reconstruction for the eastern Mediterranean 06.05.2020 Vienna but online, Austria Raible Christoph C.;
Annual Meeting Sustainable Universities Talk given at a conference Climate Change: Have science and education failed? 28.04.2020 Zürich, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
Hochschule für Wirtschaft, Bern Individual talk Klimaerhitzung: Wie dringend ist Klimaschutz? 25.02.2020 Bern, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
19th Swiss Global Change Day Poster Droughts during the past 1250 years over Europe in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.1 19.02.2020 Bern, Switzerland Stocker Thomas; Raible Christoph C.; Kim Woon Mi;
Jang Bogo Station, Antarctica Individual talk From Dome C to Paris ― and back 29.01.2020 Jang Bogo Station, Antarctica, Korean Republic (South Korea) Stocker Thomas;
Dome Concordia, Antarctica Eveneing Lecture Individual talk From Dome C to Paris ― and back 28.12.2019 Dome Concordia Station, France Stocker Thomas;
AGU Fall Meeting 2019 Poster Dynamics of persistent multi-year Mediterranean Droughts in the Community Earth System Model. 09.12.2019 San Francisco, United States of America Raible Christoph C.; Kim Woon Mi;
8th Workshop on European Storms Poster memeber of the organizing team 28.10.2019 Birmingham, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Raible Christoph C.;
Basel Life 2019 Talk given at a conference Climate Crisis: How much can we bear? 09.09.2019 Basel, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
Swiss Climate Summer school Talk given at a conference Anthropogenic climate change: The scientific basis for climate targets 08.09.2019 Locarno, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
Bachelor Summer School on Climate Change, University of Bern, Bern Talk given at a conference IPCC AR5: The Physical Science Basis 10.08.2019 Bern, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
18th Swiss Climate Summer School Talk given at a conference Anthropogenic climate change: The scientific basis for climate targets 08.08.2019 Locarno, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
27th IUGG General Assembly, IAMAS 100, Centennial Symposium of IAMAS Talk given at a conference Climate Change: From Knowledge to Action 10.07.2019 Montreal, Canada Stocker Thomas;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Using deep learning on the search of physically constrained precipitation extremes 10.04.2019 Wien, Austria Messmer Martina; Raible Christoph C.;
EGU General Assembly Conference Talk given at a conference Detectability of past atmospheric temperature anomalies in the abyssal ocean 08.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Stocker Thomas; Scheen Jeemijn;
Workshop on Climate Extremes: New Ideas for Quantifying Changes and Improving Resilience. Talk given at a conference Past and Future (851-2100) changes of extreme dryness over the Northern Hemisphere in the Community Earth System Model 1.0.1 19.03.2019 Riederalp, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.; Kim Woon Mi;
Planetary Management Symposium Series: Climate Engineering, Arizona State University Talk given at a conference IPCC AR5: results relevant for the geoengineering discussion 11.02.2019 Tempe, United States of America Stocker Thomas;
20th Swiss Global Change Day Poster Droughts during the Last Millennium over the United States in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.1 07.02.2019 Bern, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.; Kim Woon Mi; Stocker Thomas;
Geokolloquium, Institut für Geowissenschaften, Universität Heidelberg Individual talk Reduced-complexity models as a tool for paleooceanographic tracer exploration and hypothesis testing 06.02.2019 Heidelberg, Germany Scheen Jeemijn; Stocker Thomas;
7th Workshop on European Storms Talk given at a conference Long-term variability regional changes in precipitation since 850 and the role of the water vapor transport 10.10.2018 Karlsruhe, Germany Messmer Martina; Raible Christoph C.;
Lund University Centre for studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions, Closing Conference, Lund Talk given at a conference CO2 from Polar Ice Cores: A hard constraint for the past and the future 02.10.2018 Lund, Sweden Stocker Thomas;
17th Swiss Climate Summer School Poster Ocean circulation and tracer changes on time scales from millennia to ice age cycles simulated by an EMIC model 26.08.2018 Grindelwald, Switzerland Scheen Jeemijn; Stocker Thomas;
17th Swiss Climate Summer School Poster Droughts during the Last Millennium over the United States in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.1 26.08.2018 Grindelwald, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.; Stocker Thomas; Kim Woon Mi;
Urbino Summer School in Paleoclimatology (USSP) Poster Ocean circulation and tracer changes on time scales from millennia to ice age cycles simulated by an EMIC model 11.07.2018 Urbino, Italy Scheen Jeemijn; Stocker Thomas;
3rd Sustainability Forum, University of Basel Talk given at a conference Climate Change: Resource Problem of the 21st Century 04.06.2018 Basel, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
DLR Conference on Climate Change Talk given at a conference Climate Change: Ocean services under threat 17.04.2018 Köln, Germany Stocker Thomas;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Vorticity and geopotential height extreme values in ERA-Interim data during boreal winters 13.04.2018 Wien, Austria Raible Christoph C.;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Regional changes in precipitation regimes between 850 A.D. and 2100: the role of the Integrated Water Vapor Transport 13.04.2018 Wien, Austria Messmer Martina; Raible Christoph C.;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Extreme extratropical cyclone characteristics during the last millennium and the future 11.04.2018 Wien, Austria Stocker Thomas; Raible Christoph C.; Messmer Martina;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Droughts during the past 1250 years over the United States in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0. 1. 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Raible Christoph C.; Kim Woon Mi; Stocker Thomas;
EGU General Assembly Conference Poster Extreme extratropical cyclone charcteristics during the last millennium and the future 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Stocker Thomas; Messmer Martina; Raible Christoph C.;
Kollquium am KIT Individual talk North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Changes during glacial and intergalcial times 01.02.2018 Karlsruhe, Germany Raible Christoph C.;
AGU Fall Meeting 2017 Talk given at a conference Emiliani Lecture: Reconstructing rapid climate change: The model-data ping-pong 11.12.2017 New Orleans, United States of America Stocker Thomas;
Fourth International Conference on Earth System Modeling, Hamburg Talk given at a conference Climate Science: Remaining policy-relevant without becoming policy-driven 28.08.2017 Hamburg, Germany Stocker Thomas;
6th European Windstorm Workshop Talk given at a conference Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium 21.06.2017 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Stocker Thomas; Raible Christoph C.; Messmer Martina;
5th PAGES Open Science Meeting Talk given at a conference Extratropical cycloens characteristics during the last millennium and the future - implications on wind and precipiation extremes 09.05.2017 Zaragoza, Spain Raible Christoph C.; Stocker Thomas; Messmer Martina;


Knowledge transfer events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Date Place Persons involved
3. nationale Unterglas Gewächshaustagung Talk 19.11.2019 Grangeneuve, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;
Axa seminar Talk 03.07.2019 Bern, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;
World Metorological Organization, Inaugural Public Science Lecture Talk 08.05.2019 Genf, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
UN International Law Commission, Geneva: Sea Level Rise: The Scientific Basis Talk 22.03.2019 Genf, Switzerland Stocker Thomas;
Liebegger Tag der Spezialkulturen – Herausforderungen und Chancen von morgen Talk 12.03.2019 Liebegg, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;
Von der Wissenschaft in die Politik IPCC, ProClim, HADES Talk 28.11.2018 Bern, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;
CH2018 Launch Event Talk 18.11.2018 Zuerich, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;
Gruppe Gewerbler Kirchdorf und Gerzensee Talk 08.04.2017 BErn, Switzerland Raible Christoph C.;


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: radio, television Kultur und Klima SRF 1: Kulturplatz German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: print media, online media Klimanotstand im Bundeshaus? Kornhaus Forum, Bern German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Talks/events/exhibitions NZZ Global Konferenz, Zürich: Klimaziel 2°C: Schon zu spät? German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: radio, television Grosse Anzahl Interviews in Radio und Fernsehen German-speaking Switzerland International Western Switzerland Italian-speaking Switzerland 2017
Talks/events/exhibitions Seit April 2017 über 150 öffentliche Vorträge Italian-speaking Switzerland Western Switzerland German-speaking Switzerland International 2017

Awards

Title Year
Member Academy of Sciences Leopoldina of Germany 2019
Highly Cited Researcher, Thomson Reuters 2018
Prix de la Belgica, Académie Royale de Belgique 2018
Emiliani Lecture, American Geophysical Union 2017
Exzellenz Professur der Professor Dr. Werner Petersen-Stiftung Kiel 2017
Highly Cited Researcher, Thomson Reuters 2017
Swiss Science Award Marcel Benoist 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
164190 EGRIP: The Swiss Contribution 01.04.2016 Research Infrastructure
159563 Climate and Environmental Physics 01.04.2015 Project funding (Div. I-III)
147659 Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II 01.01.2014 Sinergia
200492 Climate and Environmental Physics: Pleistocene Earth System Evolution 2 (pleistoCEP2) 01.04.2021 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

This project explores Pleistocene climate processes using a combined experimental and modelling approach. First, new greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration measurements on polar ice cores in sub-millennial resolution before 150,000 years will permit the identification of climate-carbon cycle processes during phases of large climate change. Leads and lags of GHGs with respect to climate change and interhemispheric coupling will be determined. The GHG radiative forcing will be better constrained with these new data. The project also includes a component of technological development: for our rapid access ice core drill RADIX we plan to design and construct a dust logger that will permit to count the sequence of ice ages in a bore hole. This unique in situ age determination of various Antarctic sites will be an important contribution by the University of Bern to the next European deep drilling project in Antarctica (Beyond EPICA: Oldest ICE) which aims at producing an ice core that covers the past 1.5 million years. Second with our Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, the Bern3D multi-tracer model, and with the comprehen¬sive Earth System Model CESM2 we will explore physical climate processes over the past 1.5 million years, and natural and forced climate variability on time scales from years to many millennia, respectively. To make progress in understanding ice age processes we propose a significant upgrade of the Bern3D model by coupling it to an ice sheet model and calibrating the coupled model for climate states of today, the last glacial maximum (LGM), the past Interglacial and others. The cost-efficiency of the model permits us to use the model for the simulation of entire glacial-interglacial cycles, and the large ocean tracer palette including Pa, Th, Nd, 13C, 14C, Be, and noble gases, enable the application of the Bern3D to many paleoclimatic problems: the stability of the atmosphere-ocean system and millennial changes during the ice ages, competing hypotheses explaining the Mid Pleistocene Transition, and noble gases as new tracers to reconstruct variations in ocean heat content and in the Earth's energy balance. The Bern3D model will also be used for massive ensemble simulation of the future to study the implications of climate targets such as the 1.5°C and 2°C targets of the Paris Agreement. Our model will produce new policy-relevant information through a probabilistic approach, consideration of multiple climate system targets, and various CO2 reduction scenarios. Simulations with the CESM2 model from 3500 years before present to the year 2300 in a seamless manner allows us to investigate the relative influence of natural variations, orbital and volcanic forcing on, e.g., modes of variability and extreme events. A new record of volcanic forcing will be used in our simulations. We will focus on a critical assessment of paleoclimate proxies in order to enhance the quantitative understanding and interpretation of them. Our simulations will make unique contributions to the international efforts of both PMIP4 and CMIP6, the modelling intercomparison projects addressing the past and the future, respectively.
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