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Ocean extremes in a warmer world: Discovering risks for marine ecosystems (OceanX)

Applicant Frölicher Thomas
Number 170687
Funding scheme SNSF Professorships
Research institution Klima und Umweltphysik Physikalisches Institut Universität Bern
Institution of higher education University of Berne - BE
Main discipline Oceanography
Start/End 01.08.2017 - 31.07.2021
Approved amount 1'597'735.00
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Keywords (10)

Ocean deoxygenation; Extreme events; Marine ecosystems; Marine organisms; Global warming; Ocean observations; Climate change; High-resolution modeling; Earth System modeling; Ocean acidification

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Als Folge des globalen Klimawandels wird die Häufigkeit, Intensität und Dauer von Extremereignissen über dem Land stark zunehmen. Zurzeit wissen wir aber nicht, wie sich Extremereignisse im Ozean zukünftig verändern werden und was die Auswirkungen von solchen Extremereignissen auf einzelne Arten oder ganze Ökosysteme und deren sozioökonomischen Dienste sind. Dies ist besorgniserregend, da marine Ökosysteme nicht nur einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Klimaregulierung leisten, sondern auch etwa die Hälfte zur jährlichen global produzierten Biomasse beisteuern und lebenswichtige Proteine für mehr als eine Milliarde Menschen liefern.
Lay summary

Unser übergeordnetes Ziel ist es erstmals quantitative Aussagen über die Häufigkeit, Stärke und räumliche Verteilung von vergangenen und zukünftigen Extremereignisse im Ozean zu machen und die Risiken solcher Extremereignisse für marine Ökosysteme abzuschätzen. Dabei werden wir uns auf Hitzewellen, Ozeanversauerung und Sauerstoffverlust fokussieren – dies sind drei Stressfaktoren welche die marinen Lebewesen und Ökosysteme nachweisbar unter Druck setzen.

Im Detail werden wir (i) vergangene Änderungen in marinen Hitzewellen und Extremereignisse in der Ozeanversauerung anhand von Satelliten und in-situ Beobachtungen quantifizieren, (ii) die Prozesse die zu Änderungen in Extremereignissen führen mit einem neuen hochaufgelösten Klimamodell untersuchen, und (iii) die regionalen Auswirkungen von Extremereignissen für einzelne Fischarten und ganze Ökosysteme mit einer Risikoanalyse bestimmen.

Das Projekt wird neue und wichtige Informationen über die Änderungen und die dazugehörigen Prozesse von Extremereignissen im Ozean generieren und erstmals deren Risiko für die marinen Ökosysteme abschätzen. Ein besseres Verständnis ist zentral um die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den Ozean zu verstehen und um passende Massnahmen zum Schutz der Weltmeere zu planen.

 

 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 22.05.2017

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Imperial College Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Climate and Environmental Physics Institute, University of Bern Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
Environmental Physics Group, ETHZ Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Climate Physics Group, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETHZ Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
AOS Program, Princeton University United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia Canada (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
ROSES / ORCHESTRA Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Constraining the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink 07.07.2021 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Frölicher Thomas;
AOS Program Seminar Individual talk Emergent constraints on the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake 21.05.2021 Princeton, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
EGU 2021 Talk given at a conference Emergent constraints on the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake 20.05.2021 Wien, Austria Frölicher Thomas;
Oceanography Seminar, SOEST Individual talk From marine heatwaves to ocean biogeochemical extremes 14.04.2021 Honolulu, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
Plenary Meeting Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research Talk given at a conference Ocean extremes: From marine heatwaves to compound events 17.02.2021 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
Seminar Ocean and Fisheries, UBC Vancouver Individual talk Ocean extremes: From marine heatwaves to compound events 07.10.2020 Vancouver, Canada Frölicher Thomas;
Ocean Sciences Meeting Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves in a warming climate 25.02.2020 San Diego, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
COP21 - Ministry Segment Talk given at a conference Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate 02.12.2019 Neapel, Italy Frölicher Thomas;
Hauptaussagen des IPCC SROCC Talk given at a conference Die Ozean im IPCC SROCC 16.10.2019 Innsbruck, Austria Frölicher Thomas;
Workshop on Estimating the impact of climate change on Living Marine Resources Talk given at a conference Uncertainty in projections of marine ecosystem drivers and fisheries catch 08.10.2019 Bergen, Norway Frölicher Thomas;
Nereus open science conference Talk given at a conference Extreme climatic events in the ocean 03.09.2019 Princeton, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
Imber open science conference Talk given at a conference Variability changes alter ocean acidity extremes 19.06.2019 Brest, France Burger Friedrich;
Imber open science conference 2019 Talk given at a conference Attribution of recent marine heatwaves to anthropogenic climate change 19.06.2019 Brest, France Laufkötter Charlotte;
Climate and Environmental Physics PhD Day 2019 Talk given at a conference Variabiltiy changes alter ocean acidity extremes 13.06.2019 Bern, Switzerland Burger Friedrich;
Climate and Environmental Physics PhD Day 2019 Talk given at a conference Modelling marine heatwaves using high resolution Earth system models 13.06.2019 Bern, Switzerland Aschwanden Mathias;
Seminar, Department of Zoology, University of Basel Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 06.05.2019 Basel, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
Seminar, Department of Zoology, University of Basel Individual talk Ocean extreme events and their impacts on marine ecosystems 02.05.2019 Basel, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers 11.04.2019 Wien, Austria Frölicher Thomas;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference Variability changes alter ocean acidity extremes 11.04.2019 Wien, Austria Burger Friedrich;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves under global warming: Key processes, detection and attribution, and projections 08.04.2019 Wien, Austria Frölicher Thomas;
Physik am Freitag Individual talk Warm, sauer, wenig Sauerstoff - Der Ozean unter Stress 22.03.2019 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
CMIP6 workshop Poster Asessing the robustness of marine heatwave projections 21.03.2019 Barcelona, Spain Frölicher Thomas;
Swiss Global Change Day 2019 Poster Ocean acidity extremes altered by variability changes 07.02.2019 Bern, Switzerland Burger Friedrich;
Seminar, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 11.01.2019 Vancouver, Canada Frölicher Thomas;
American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves under global warming 10.01.2019 Phoenix, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
Swiss Society for Meteorology Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves under global warming 23.11.2018 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
OneNOAA Science Seminars, Webinar Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 15.11.2018 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
Ocean deoxygenation conference Talk given at a conference Robust millennial-scale recovery of deep ocean ventilation and oxygen with global warming? 03.09.2018 Kiel, Germany Frölicher Thomas;
Swiss Climate Summer School Poster Changing carbon weather altering extreme event characteristics 27.08.2018 Grindelwald, Switzerland Burger Friedrich;
Swiss Climate Summer School Poster Marine heatwaves in the satellite era 27.08.2018 Grindelwald, Switzerland Striegel Sandra;
Seminar Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 27.06.2018 Liverpool, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Frölicher Thomas;
Nereus Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves under global warming 25.06.2018 Seattle, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
AOS Seminar Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 15.06.2018 Princeton, United States of America Frölicher Thomas;
Climate and Environmental Physics PhD Day 2018 Talk given at a conference Assessing 21st century ocean acidification extreme events 07.06.2018 Bern, Switzerland Burger Friedrich;
Climate and Environmental Physics PhD Day 2018 Talk given at a conference Marine heatwaves in the satellite era 07.06.2018 Bern, Switzerland Striegel Sandra;
Seminar Geography Institute Individual talk Marine heatwaves under global warming 23.05.2018 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
Swiss Global Change Day Poster Assessing 21st century ocean acidification extreme events under three different carbon emission pathways 19.04.2018 Bern, Switzerland Burger Friedrich;
Swiss Global Change Day Poster Marine heatwaves under global warming 19.04.2018 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
Swiss Global Change Day Poster Attribution of marine heatwaves 19.04.2018 Bern, Switzerland Laufkötter Charlotte;
Swiss Global Change Day Poster Marine heatwaves in the satellite era 19.04.2018 Bern, Switzerland Striegel Sandra;
Seminar Climate and Environmental Physics Individual talk Ocean extremes in a warming world: Discovering risks for marine ecosystems (OceanX) 13.11.2017 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
OCCR Plenary Meeting Individual talk Ocean extremes in a warming world: Discovering risks for marine ecosystems (OceanX) 12.09.2017 Bern, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;
ICDC10 Talk given at a conference More intense, more frequent and longer lasting marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events under global warming 24.08.2017 Interlaken, Switzerland Frölicher Thomas;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
Session 1: Ocean extremes and their impact on marine ecosystem 04.06.2018 Washington, United States of America
Carbon feedbacks in the climate system 25.04.2018 University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: radio, television Das Meer und der Klimawandel SRF Radio German-speaking Switzerland 2021
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Fokus Forschung-Podcast #3: Der Ozean UBERN /SRF German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: print media, online media Folgen der Erderwärmung - Wie der Klimawandel den Fischfang beeinträchtigt ( Tagesanzeiger German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: radio, television Golfstrom - Schwach wie seit tausend Jahren nicht ORF German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: print media, online media Hitzewellen im Meer haben drastische Folgen für Fischerei UBERN Medienmitteilung German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: radio, television Physik-Nobelpreis für die Klimaforschung SRF Radio German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Talks/events/exhibitions Science after Noon: Ein Jahr in der Arktis - über die Polarexpedition MOSAIC German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Talks/events/exhibitions Sozialdiakoniekonferenz Bern German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: print media, online media Unsicherheit bezüglich CO2-Aufnahme im Südpolarmeer halbiert UBERN German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: radio, television World Ocean Assessment II SRF WOAII German-speaking Switzerland 2021
Media relations: print media, online media Dead birds washing up by the thousands send a warning about climate change Inside Climate News International 2020
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Deep-Ocean Oxygen May Increase with Climate Change EOS International 2020
Media relations: radio, television Die Meere erwärmen sich schneller SRF RAdio German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Talks/events/exhibitions Herausforderung Klimawandel, Klimastreik Köniz German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Media relations: print media, online media Hitzwellen stressen Fische massiv Horizonte SNSF German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Media relations: print media, online media Marine heatwaves are human made UBERN Press Release German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Talks/events/exhibitions Ökumenische Erwachsenenbildung Zofingen German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Media relations: print media, online media Return of the Blob could intensify climate change impacts on Northeast Pacific fisheries Press Release UBC International 2020
Media relations: radio, television Wie nimmt man einem fiebrigen Ozean die Temperatur? SRF Radio German-speaking Switzerland 2020
Media relations: print media, online media Bedrohte Riffe: Klimawandel verursacht Korallensterben Göttinger Tageblatt International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Das passiert durch die Erwärmung der Ozeane quarks.de International 2019
Talks/events/exhibitions Herausforderung Klimawandel, Business lunch, Kiwanis club, Solothurn German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Talks/events/exhibitions Herausforderung Klimawandel, CVP Annual meeting, Schließfach German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Hitze töten Korallen superschnell welt.de International German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Höher, schneller, wärmer BMEL: Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Les scientifiques s'inquiètent d'un ralentissement des courants dans l'Atlantique Nord Atlantico.fr International 2019
Media relations: radio, television Sturmflut in Venedig - geplanter Staudamm immer noch in Planung SRF Tagesschau German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Talks/events/exhibitions Sustainability and city development German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Talks/events/exhibitions Swiss Engineering Society, Baden German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Climat : la mer aussi se réchauffe Le Parisiene International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Climate change has doubled the frequency of ocean heatwaves Nature News International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Climate Change Is Cooking the Oceans Earther International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Climate change is driving ocean oxygen declines Oceana International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Das Meer leidet unter der Hitze Tagesanzeiger German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Deep coral reefs are not the safe haven scientists hoped Axios International 2018
Talks/events/exhibitions Der Ozean unter Stress, Berufsbildungszentrum Olten German-speaking Switzerland 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Effective fisheries management can reduce extinction risk of marine fish stocks from climate change UBC main website International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Especialistas alertam que aquecimento dos oceanos ameaça vida marinha Correio Braziliense International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) In hot water: Global warming amplifies risk of marine heat waves Axios International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Interview Frölicher D'Region German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Jetzt schwappt die Hitzewelle in die Ozeane Blick International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Ocean's soaking up more heat than estimated BBC International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Podcast: Bumblebees, opioids, and ocean weather Nature Podcast International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Restricting global warming to 1.5C would ‘halve’ risk of marine heatwaves Carbonbrief International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Unterschätzte Gefahr: Hitzewellen im Meer Klimareporter International 2018
Media relations: radio, television Warming Waters Push Fish To Cooler Climates, Out Of Some Fishermen's Reach National Public Radio International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Why is the Gulf of Maine warming faster than 99% of the ocean EOS International 2018

Awards

Title Year
Contributing author, Chapter 9. Second World Ocean Assessment 2021 2021
Listed on Reuters Hot list of the 1000 world's top climate scientists 2021
Theodor Kocher Prize, University of Bern 2019
Young Academics Support Grant 2018
Lead author, Chapter six, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC), Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
198897 Ocean extremes in a warmer world: Discovering risks for marine ecosystems (OceanX) - Phase 2 01.08.2021 SNSF Professorships

Abstract

Extreme climate and weather events shape the structure of biological systems and affect the biogeochemical functions and services they provide for society in a fundamental manner. There is overwhelming evidence that the frequency, duration, intensity, and timing of extreme events on land are changing under global warming, increasing the risk of severe, pervasive and in some cases irreversible impacts on natural and socio-economic systems. In contrast, we know very little how extreme events in the ocean, especially those associated with warming, acidification, deoxygenation and nutrient stress will unfold in time and space, as this requires dense observations and high-resolution ocean models. In addition, our understanding of the role of ocean extreme events for marine organisms and ecosystem services is very poor. This knowledge gap is of particular concern as the ocean provides food security and livelihoods for about 15% of the world population.I will move knowledge boundaries by discovering and attributing past and future changes in ocean extremes, and by assessing and mapping the risk of these ocean extreme events for marine organisms and ecosystems. I will quantify historical changes in marine heat waves and ocean acidification extreme events by synthesizing and analyzing novel satellite-based and in-situ physical and biogeochemical ocean observations. Model-derived relationships among physical and biogeochemical variables will be used to underpin the extreme event assessment of the sparse oxygen and net primary production observations. A new high-resolution global Earth System Model version will be applied to quantify and understand the drivers of past and future changes in ocean extreme events and to attribute specific ocean extreme events to human-caused climate change and natural variability. The integration of available and newly developed marine ecosystem exposure and vulnerability indices into the high-resolution modeling framework allows me to quantify regional risk levels of marine organisms and ecosystems to key ocean extreme events. This project aims at a major breakthrough in our understanding of the fundamental processes governing ocean extreme events and whether organisms and ecosystems might be pushed to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, potentially causing dramatic and irreversible changes.
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