Ocean deoxygenation; Extreme events; Marine ecosystems; Marine organisms; Global warming; Ocean observations; Climate change; High-resolution modeling; Earth System modeling; Ocean acidification
Gloege Lucas, McKinley Galen A., Landschützer Peter, Fay Amanda R., Frölicher Thomas L., Fyfe John C., Ilyina Tatiana, Jones Steve, Lovenduski Nicole S., Rodgers Keith B., Schlunegger Sarah, Takano Yohei (2021), Quantifying Errors in Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Carbon Sink Variability, in
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 35(4), e2020GB006.
Grix Natacha Le, Zscheischler Jakob, Laufkötter Charlotte, Rousseaux Cecile S., Frölicher Thomas L. (2021), Compound high-temperature and low-chlorophyll extremes in the ocean over the satellite period, in
Biogeosciences, 18, 2119-2137.
Cheung William W. L., Frölicher Thomas L., Lam Vicky W. Y., Oyinlola Muhammed A., Reygondeau Gabriel, Sumaila U. Rashid, Tai Travis C., Teh Lydia C. L., Wabnitz Colette C. C. (2021), Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries, in
Science Advances, 7(40), eabh0895.
Terhaar Jens, Frölicher Thomas, Joos Fortunat (2021), Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity, in
Science Advances, eabd5964.
Fernandes Jose A., Frölicher Thomas L., Rutterford Louise A., Erauskin-Extramiana Maite, Cheung William W. L. (2020), Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios, in
Regional Environmental Change, 20(4), 116-116.
Cheung William W. L., Frölicher Thomas L. (2020), Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific, in
Scientific Reports, 10(1), 6678-6678.
Albouy Camille, Delattre Valentine, Donati Giulia, Frölicher Thomas L., Albouy-Boyer Severine, Rufino Marta, Pellissier Loïc, Mouillot David, Leprieur Fabien (2020), Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming, in
Scientific Reports, 10(1), 548-548.
Pinsky M. L., Rogers L. A., Morley J. W., Frölicher T. L. (2020), Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs, in
Science Advances, 6(50), 10.1126/sc.
Rodgers K. B., Ishii M., Frölicher T. L., Schlunegger S., Aumont O., Toyama K., Slater R. D. (2020), Coupling of Surface Ocean Heat and Carbon Perturbations over the Subtropical Cells under Twenty-First Century Climate Change, in
Journal of Climate, 33(23), 10321-10338.
Morley James W, Frölicher Thomas L, Pinsky Malin L (2020), Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf, in
ICES Journal of Marine Science, 77(6), 2118-2133.
Reygondeau Gabriel, Cheung William W. L., Wabnitz Colette C. C., Lam Vicky W. Y., Frölicher Thomas, Maury Olivier (2020), Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces, in
Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 657.
Collins Mat, Barreiro Marcelo, Frölicher Thomas, Kang Sarah M., Ashok Karumuri, Roxy Mathew Koll, Singh Deepti, Tedeschi Renata Goncalves, Wang Guojian, Wilcox Laura, Wu Bo (2020), Frontiers in Climate Predictions and Projections, in
Frontiers in Climate, 2, 571245.
Rodgers K. B., Schlunegger S., Slater R. D., I e2020GL089275 shii M., Frölicher T. L., Toyama K., Plancherel Y., Aumont O., Fassbender A. J. (2020), Reemergence of Anthropogenic Carbon Into the Ocean's Mixed Layer Strongly Amplifies Transient Climate Sensitivity, in
Geophysical Research Letters, 47(18), e2020GL089.
Lam Vicky W. Y., Allison Edward H., Bell Johann D., Blythe Jessica, Cheung William W. L., Frölicher Thomas L., Gasalla Maria A., Sumaila U. Rashid (2020), Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development, in
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1(9), 440-454.
Frölicher Thomas L., Ramseyer Luca, Raible Christoph C., Rodgers Keith B., Dunne John (2020), Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers, in
Biogeosciences, 17(7), 2061-2083.
Fernandes Jose A., Rutterford Louise, Simpson Stephen D., Butenschön Momme, Frölicher Thomas L., Yool Andrew, Cheung William W. L., Grant Alastair (2020), Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?, in
Global Change Biology, 26(7), 3891-3905.
Frölicher T. L., Aschwanden M. T., Gruber N., Jaccard S. L., Dunne J. P., Paynter D. (2020), Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming, in
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34(8), e2020GB00.
Rugenstein Maria, Bloch-Johnson Jonah, Gregory Jonathan, Andrews Timothy, Mauritsen Thorsten, Li Chao, Frölicher Thomas L., Paynter David, Danabasoglu Gokhan, Yang Shuting, Dufresne Jean-Louis, Cao Long, Schmidt Gavin A., Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Geoffroy Olivier, Knutti Reto (2020), Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models, in
Geophysical Research Letters, 47(4), e2019GL083.
Laufkötter Charlotte, Zscheischler Jakob, Frölicher Thomas L. (2020), High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming, in
Science, 369(6511), 1621-1625.
Burger Friedrich A., John Jasmin G., Frölicher Thomas L. (2020), Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2, in
Biogeosciences, 4633-4662.
Hameau Angélique, Frölicher Thomas L., Mignot Juliette, Joos Fortunat (2020), Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?, in
Biogeosciences, 17(7), 1877-1895.
MacDougall Andrew H., Frölicher Thomas L., Jones Chris D., Rogelj Joeri, Matthews H. Damon, Zickfeld Kirsten, Arora Vivek K., Barrett Noah J., Brovkin Victor, Burger Friedrich A., Eby Micheal, Eliseev Alexey V., Hajima Tomohiro, Holden Philip B., Jeltsch-Thömmes Aurich, Koven Charles, Mengis Nadine, Menviel Laurie, Michou Martine, Mokhov Igor I., Oka Akira, Schwinger Jörg, Séférian Roland, Shaffer Gary, Sokolov Andrei, Tachiiri Kaoru, Tjiputra Jerry, Wiltshire Andrew, Ziehn Tilo (2020), Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2, in
Biogeosciences, 17(11), 2987-3016.
Matthews H. Damon, Tokarska Katarzyna B., Nicholls Zebedee R. J., Rogelj Joeri, Canadell Josep G., Friedlingstein Pierre, Frölicher Thomas L., Forster Piers M., Gillett Nathan P., Ilyina Tatiana, Jackson Robert B., Jones Chris D., Koven Charles, Knutti Reto, MacDougall Andrew H., Meinshausen Malte, Mengis Nadine, Séférian Roland, Zickfeld Kirsten (2020), Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy, in
Nature Geosciences, 769-779.
Schlunegger Sarah, Rodgers Keith B., Sarmiento Jorge L., Ilyina Tatiana, Dunne John P., Takano Yohei, Christian James R., Long Matthew C., Frölicher Thomas L., Slater Richard, Lehner Flavio (2020), Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends, in
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34(8), e2019GB006.
FrölicherThomas (2019),
Extreme climatic events in the ocean, Elsevier, Predicing future oceans.
Jones Chris D., Frölicher Thomas L., Koven Charles, MacDougall Andrew H., Matthews H. Damon, Zickfeld Kirsten, Rogelj Joeri, Tokarska Katarzyna B., Gillett Nathan, Ilyina Tatiana, Meinshausen Malte, Mengis Nadine, Seferian Roland, Eby Michael (2019), The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, in
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-18.
Frölicher Thomas (2019), Hitzewellen im Ozean: Die unterschätzte Gefahr, in
Physik in unserer Zeit, 50(2), 64-70.
Frölicher Thomas L., Laufkötter Charlotte (2018), Emerging risks from marine heat waves, in
Nature Communications, 9(1), 650-650.
Cheung William W. L., Jones Miranda C., Reygondeau Gabriel, Frölicher Thomas L. (2018), Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management, in
Global Change Biology.
Frölicher Thomas L., Fischer Erich M., Gruber Nicolas (2018), Marine heatwaves under global warming, in
Nature, 560(7718), 360-364.
Palter Jaime B., Frölicher Thomas L., Paynter David, John Jasmin G. (2018), Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming, in
Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 817-828.
Morley James W., Selden Rebecca L., Latour Robert J., Frölicher Thomas L., Seagraves Richard J., Pinsky Malin L. (2018), Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf, in
PLOS ONE, 13(5), e0196127-e0196127.
Franco A. C., Gruber N., Frölicher T. L., Kropuenske Artman L. (2018), Contrasting Impact of Future CO 2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO 3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System, in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123(3), 2018-2036.
Paynter D., Frölicher T. L., Horowitz L. W., Silvers L. G. (2018), Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models, in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(4), 1921-1941.
Williams Richard G., Roussenov Vassil, Frölicher Thomas L., Goodwin Philip (2017), Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon EmissionsDrivers of Continued Surface Warming, in
Geophysical Research Letters, 44(20), 10,633-10,642.
Rugenstein Maria, Bloch-Johnson Jonah, Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Andrews Timothy, Beyerle Urs, Cao Long, Chadha Tarun, Danabasoglu Gokhan, Dufresne Jean-Louis, Duan Lei, Foujols Marie-Alice, Frölicher Thomas, Geoffroy Olivier, Gregory Jonathan, Knutti Reto, Li Chao, Marzocchi Alice, Mauritsen Thorsten, Moyer Elisabeth, Nazarenko Larissa, Paynter David, Saint-Martin David, Schmidt Gavin A., Yamamoto Akitomo, Yang Shuting, LongRunMIP – motivation and design for a large collection of millennial-length AO-GCM simulations, in
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc..
Extreme climate and weather events shape the structure of biological systems and affect the biogeochemical functions and services they provide for society in a fundamental manner. There is overwhelming evidence that the frequency, duration, intensity, and timing of extreme events on land are changing under global warming, increasing the risk of severe, pervasive and in some cases irreversible impacts on natural and socio-economic systems. In contrast, we know very little how extreme events in the ocean, especially those associated with warming, acidification, deoxygenation and nutrient stress will unfold in time and space, as this requires dense observations and high-resolution ocean models. In addition, our understanding of the role of ocean extreme events for marine organisms and ecosystem services is very poor. This knowledge gap is of particular concern as the ocean provides food security and livelihoods for about 15% of the world population.I will move knowledge boundaries by discovering and attributing past and future changes in ocean extremes, and by assessing and mapping the risk of these ocean extreme events for marine organisms and ecosystems. I will quantify historical changes in marine heat waves and ocean acidification extreme events by synthesizing and analyzing novel satellite-based and in-situ physical and biogeochemical ocean observations. Model-derived relationships among physical and biogeochemical variables will be used to underpin the extreme event assessment of the sparse oxygen and net primary production observations. A new high-resolution global Earth System Model version will be applied to quantify and understand the drivers of past and future changes in ocean extreme events and to attribute specific ocean extreme events to human-caused climate change and natural variability. The integration of available and newly developed marine ecosystem exposure and vulnerability indices into the high-resolution modeling framework allows me to quantify regional risk levels of marine organisms and ecosystems to key ocean extreme events. This project aims at a major breakthrough in our understanding of the fundamental processes governing ocean extreme events and whether organisms and ecosystems might be pushed to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, potentially causing dramatic and irreversible changes.