Stratospheric aerosol; Numerical Modeling; Future Climate; Stratospheric dynamics; Ozone layer; Volcanoes
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SOCOL-AER results simulting aerosol after Pinatubo
| Author |
Sukhodolov, Timofei |
| Publication date |
11.05.2018 |
| Persistent Identifier (PID) |
doi |
| Repository |
zenodo
|
| Abstract |
See description of experiments in Sukhodolov et al. (2018)
Aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 code
| Author |
Sukhodolov, Timofei |
| Publication date |
11.05.2018 |
| Persistent Identifier (PID) |
doi |
| Repository |
zenodo
|
| Abstract |
Aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 code used to study stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo. To run the model, one needs to have installed OpenMPI, Fortran, and NETCDF. Please contact the author to get access for model initial and boundary conditions.
Understanding of the future change in climate is a problem of utmost importance for the scientific community, society and policymakers. The influence of powerful volcanic eruptions on climate was recognized long ago. Recently, it was suggested that small volcanic eruptions can also influence climate. However, projections of future climate change in the recent and upcoming IPCC reports do not take into account any effects from either infrequent, explosive or more-numerous small volcanic eruptions, rendering our knowledge of future climate far from complete. We propose to address this missing component in future climate change projections. We will design a set of future scenarios of volcanic activity, simulate the effect of both large and small volcanic eruptions, integrate these scenarios into the standard set of future climate projections and investigate their potential effects on extreme weather events and food production. The main objectives of the project are to:•Design future scenarios of volcanic activity that include eruptions of all intensities;•Evaluate the influence of volcanic eruptions on long-term changes in major climate indicators, climate extremes and food production;•Compare the effect of volcanic eruptions with other natural and anthropogenic factors influencing climate;•Characterize and understand both the mechanisms responsible for the downward propagation of stratospheric disturbances resulting from volcanic eruptions, as well as their influence on the predictability of weather and climate. To achieve these goals, we will make use of our coupled atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model (AOACCM). This model provides a powerful tool to investigate interaction between sulfate aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics and climate. The sulfate aerosol part of the model, developed in our group, is capable of explicitly calculating the sulfate aerosol properties and therefore treating all kind of volcanic eruptions as well as other sources of sulfur containing emissions. Our project will lead to the first comprehensive assessment of the long-term natural influence of volcanic eruptions in future climate projections, their uncertainties and their impact on extreme weather events. The work will impact the future IPCC and WMO/UNEP ozone assessments and will provide better information for society and policymakers.