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Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC)

English title Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC)
Applicant Rozanov Eugene V.
Number 169241
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und Weltstrahlungszentrum
Institution of higher education Physikal.-Meteorolog. Observatorium Davos - PMOD
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.10.2016 - 30.11.2018
Approved amount 226'600.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences

Keywords (6)

Stratospheric aerosol; Numerical Modeling; Future Climate; Stratospheric dynamics; Ozone layer; Volcanoes

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Das Ziel von VEC ist es die Auswirkungen von Vulkanausbrüchen auf langfristige Veränderungen der Hauptklimaindikatoren, Klimaextrema und Nahrungsmittelproduktion zu untersuchen. Wir werden zuerst eine Reihe von Zukunftsszenarien der Vulkanaktivität entwickeln um dann die Auswirkungen grosser und kleiner Vulkanausbrüche zu simulieren. In einem weiteren Schritt werden wir diese Szenarien in Standard-Klimaprognosen integrieren und deren potentiellen Auswirkungen auf das Klima, extreme Wetterereignisse und Nahrungsmittelproduktion untersuchen.
Lay summary
Das Verständnis zukünftiger Klimaveränderungen ist für die Wissenschaft, die Gesellschaft und die politischen Entscheidungsträger von grosser Bedeutung. Der Einfluss von mächtigen Vulkanausbrüchen auf das Klima ist seit längerem verstanden. Seit kurzem wird angenommen, dass auch kleinere Vulkanausbrüche das Klima beeinflussen können. Weder in der jüngsten Vergangenheit noch in naher Zukunft werden jedoch vom Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) bei den Prognosen zukünftiger Klimaveränderungen keinerlei Auswirkungen von seltenen, explosiven oder zahlreichen kleineren Vulkanausbrüchen berücksichtigt; was zu einem unvollständigen Verständnis des zukünftigen Klimas führt. Um diese fehlende Komponente in den Prognosen zukünftiger Klimaveränderungen zu berücksichtigen werden wir Gebrauch von unserem gekoppelten Atmosphäre-Ozean-Aerosol-Chemie-Klima-Modell (AOACCM) machen. Dieses Modell stellt ein mächtiges Werkzeug zur Verfügung um Interaktionen zwischen Sulfataerosolen, atmosphärischer Chemie, Ozeandynamik und dem Klima zu untersuchen. Unser Projekt wird zu einer ersten umfassenden Einschätzung des langfristigen natürlichen Einflussen von Vulkanausbrüchen auf Zukunktsprognosen des Klimas, deren Unsicherheiten und deren Einfluss auf extreme Wetterereignisse führen. Unsere Arbeit wird eine umfassende Einschätzung zukünftiger Klimaveränderungen für die Gesellschaft und für politische Entscheidungsträger zur Verfügung stellen.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 28.09.2016

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
The goal of VEC is to evaluate the influence of volcanic eruptions on long-term changes in major climate indicators, climate extremes and food production. We will design a set of future scenarios of volcanic activity, simulate the effect of both large and small volcanic eruptions, integrate these scenarios into the standard set of future climate projections and investigate their potential effects on climate, extreme weather events and food production.
Lay summary
Understanding of the future change in climate is a problem of utmost importance for the scientific community, society and policymakers. The influence of powerful volcanic eruptions on climate was recognized long ago. Recently, it was suggested that small volcanic eruptions can also influence climate. However, projections of future climate change in the recent and upcoming Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) activity do not take into account any effects from either infrequent, explosive or more-numerous small volcanic eruptions, rendering our knowledge of future climate far from complete. To address this missing component in future climate change projections, we will make use of our coupled atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model (AOACCM). This model provides a powerful tool to investigate interaction between sulphate aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics and climate. Our project will lead to the first comprehensive assessment of the long-term natural influence of volcanic eruptions on future climate projections, their uncertainties and their impact on extreme weather events. The work will provide more complete information about future climate change for society and policymakers.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 28.09.2016

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
Feinberg Aryeh, Sukhodolov Timofei, Luo Bei-Ping, Rozanov Eugene, Winkel Lenny H. E., Peter Thomas, Stenke Andrea (2019), Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, in Geoscientific Model Development, 12(9), 3863-3887.
Contributions of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing Agents to the Early 20th Century Warming
Egorova Tatiana, Rozanov Eugene, Arsenovic Pavle, Peter Thomas, Schmutz Werner (2018), Contributions of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing Agents to the Early 20th Century Warming, in Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 1-8.
Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends
Maycock Amanda C., Randel William J., Steiner Andrea K., Karpechko Alexey Yu, Christy John, Saunders Roger, Thompson David W. J., Zou Cheng-Zhi, Chrysanthou Andreas, Luke Abraham N., Akiyoshi Hideharu, Archibald Alex T., Butchart Neal, Chipperfield Martyn, Dameris Martin, Deushi Makoto, Dhomse Sandip, Di Genova Glauco, Jöckel Patrick, Kinnison Douglas E., Kirner Oliver, Ladstädter Florian, Michou Martine, Morgenstern Olaf, et al. (2018), Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends, in Geophysical Research Letters, 45(18), 9919-9933.
Stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo simulated with a coupled size-resolved aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0
Sukhodolov Timofei, Sheng Jian-Xiong, Feinberg Aryeh, Luo Bei-Ping, Peter Thomas, Revell Laura, Stenke Andrea, Weisenstein Debra K., Rozanov Eugene (2018), Stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo simulated with a coupled size-resolved aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0, in Geoscientific Model Development, 11(7), 2633-2647.
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations
Dhomse Sandip S., Kinnison Douglas, Chipperfield Martyn P., Salawitch Ross J., Cionni Irene, Hegglin Michaela I., Abraham N. Luke, Akiyoshi Hideharu, Archibald Alex T., Bednarz Ewa M., Bekki Slimane, Braesicke Peter, Butchart Neal, Dameris Martin, Deushi Makoto, Frith Stacey, Hardiman Steven C., Hassler Birgit, Horowitz Larry W., Hu Rong-Ming, Jöckel Patrick, Josse Beatrice, Kirner Oliver, Kremser Stefanie, et al. (2018), Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(11), 8409-8438.
Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations
Orbe Clara, Yang Huang, Waugh Darryn W., Zeng Guang, Morgenstern Olaf, Kinnison Douglas E., Lamarque Jean-Francois, Tilmes Simone, Plummer David A., Scinocca John F., Josse Beatrice, Marecal Virginie, Jöckel Patrick, Oman Luke D., Strahan Susan E., Deushi Makoto, Tanaka Taichu Y., Yoshida Kohei, Akiyoshi Hideharu, Yamashita Yousuke, Stenke Andreas, Revell Laura, Sukhodolov Timofei, Rozanov Eugene, et al. (2018), Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(10), 7217-7235.
Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models
Son Seok-Woo, Han Bo-Reum, Garfinkel Chaim I, Kim Seo-Yeon, Park Rokjin, Abraham N Luke, Akiyoshi Hideharu, Archibald Alexander T, Butchart N, Chipperfield Martyn P, Dameris Martin, Deushi Makoto, Dhomse Sandip S, Hardiman Steven C, Jöckel Patrick, Kinnison Douglas, Michou Martine, Morgenstern Olaf, O’Connor Fiona M, Oman Luke D, Plummer David A, Pozzer Andrea, Revell Laura E, Rozanov Eugene, et al. (2018), Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models, in Environmental Research Letters, 13(5), 054024-054024.
Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora
Marshall Lauren, Schmidt Anja, Toohey Matthew, Carslaw Ken S., Mann Graham W., Sigl Michael, Khodri Myriam, Timmreck Claudia, Zanchettin Davide, Ball William T., Bekki Slimane, Brooke James S. A., Dhomse Sandip, Johnson Colin, Lamarque Jean-Francois, LeGrande Allegra N., Mills Michael J., Niemeier Ulrike, Pope James O., Poulain Virginie, Robock Alan, Rozanov Eugene, Stenke Andrea, Sukhodolov Timofei, et al. (2018), Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(3), 2307-2328.
Impacts of Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol on the tropical stratosphere in chemistry–climate model simulations using CCMI and CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data
Revell Laura E., Stenke Andrea, Luo Beiping, Kremser Stefanie, Rozanov Eugene, Sukhodolov Timofei, Peter Thomas (2017), Impacts of Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol on the tropical stratosphere in chemistry–climate model simulations using CCMI and CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(21), 13139-13150.

Datasets

SOCOL-AER results simulting aerosol after Pinatubo

Author Sukhodolov, Timofei
Publication date 11.05.2018
Persistent Identifier (PID) doi
Repository zenodo
Abstract
See description of experiments in Sukhodolov et al. (2018)

Aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 code

Author Sukhodolov, Timofei
Publication date 11.05.2018
Persistent Identifier (PID) doi
Repository zenodo
Abstract
Aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 code used to study stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo. To run the model, one needs to have installed OpenMPI, Fortran, and NETCDF. Please contact the author to get access for model initial and boundary conditions.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
IAC ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
ISSI team workshop Talk given at a conference The atmospheric response to precipitating energetic electrons 22.10.2018 Beijing, China Rozanov Eugene V.;
SPARC General Assembly 2018 Poster Modelling of the stratospheric aerosol layer: role of volcanic SO2 emissions during early 21st century 01.10.2018 Kyoto, Japan Sukhodolov Timofei;
ISEE workshop Talk given at a conference Atmospheric transport of cosmogenic isotopes 01.10.2018 Nagoya, Japan Rozanov Eugene V.;
Graubünden forscht – The Young Researchers Convention 2018 Poster Modeling of the aerosol cloud after Pinatubo using Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Models 19.09.2018 Davos, Switzerland Sukhodolov Timofei;
HEPPA-SOLARIS workshop Talk given at a conference Global atmospheric models (review) 19.09.2018 Bergen, Norway Rozanov Eugene V.;
EMS-2018 Talk given at a conference Solar irradiance and energetic particle impacts on the atmosphere: Status and development 03.09.2018 Budapest, Hungary Rozanov Eugene V.;
2nd IUGG Conference on Mathematical Geophysics Talk given at a conference Simulating evolution of stratospheric aerosol after Pinatubo eruption using coupled aerosol-chemistry climate models 23.06.2018 Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia Sukhodolov Timofei;
Davos Science Rally Talk given at a conference Climate studies in PMOD/WRC 06.06.2018 Davos, Switzerland Sukhodolov Timofei;
Swiss Global Change Day Poster Size-resolved stratospheric aerosol distributions after Pinatubo derived from a coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model 19.04.2018 Bern, Switzerland Sukhodolov Timofei;
Chapman Conference on Stratospheric Aerosol in the Post-Pinatubo Era: Processes, Interactions, and Importance Poster Size-resolved stratospheric aerosol distributions after Pinatubo derived from a coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model 18.03.2018 Puerto de la Cruz, Tenerife, Spain Sukhodolov Timofei;
2-nd Swiss SCOSTEP workshop Talk given at a conference Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD 10.10.2017 Locarno, Switzerland Sukhodolov Timofei;
IUPAC-2017 Talk given at a conference What should be done for sustainable recovery of the ozone layer in the future? 02.10.2017 Moscow, Russia Rozanov Eugene V.;
IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Joint Assembly Talk given at a conference Climate and ozone layer response to solar irradiance and energetic particle precipitation variability 27.08.2017 CapeTown, South Africa Rozanov Eugene V.;
Second VarSITI General Symposium Talk given at a conference Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar storm of 775 AD 10.07.2017 Irkutsk, Russia Rozanov Eugene V.; Sukhodolov Timofei;
Second SCOSTEP VarSITI General Simposium Talk given at a conference Contribution of TSI, solar UV and energetic particles to early 20th century climate and ozone layer evolution 10.07.2017 Irkutsk, Russia Rozanov Eugene V.;
C2SM GCM Workshop Talk given at a conference Major volcanic eruptions modelling with SOCOLv3-AER 27.06.2017 Zurich, Switzerland Sukhodolov Timofei; Rozanov Eugene V.;
IUGG CGM-2018 conference Poster The evolution of the ozone layer under influence of the natural and anthropogenic factors 23.06.2017 Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia Rozanov Eugene V.;
Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Science Workshop Poster Size-Resolved stratospheric aerosol distributions after Pinatubo derived from a coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate Model1306.217 13.06.2017 Toulouse, France Sukhodolov Timofei;
SOLAR Science Team Meeting Talk given at a conference Atmospheric response to short-term solar irradiance variability 16.03.2017 Noordwijk, Netherlands Sukhodolov Timofei;
1-st Swiss SCOSTEP workshop Talk given at a conference Modeling of the middle atmosphere response to the 27- day solar irradiance variability 04.10.2016 Bern, Switzerland Rozanov Eugene V.; Sukhodolov Timofei;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
IUGG CGM-2018 conference 23.06.2018 Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia
Joint IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Assembly 2017 (Session M12) 27.08.2017 Capetown, South Africa

Awards

Title Year
Certificate of outstanding contribution in reviewing from Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2017
Reviewer Certificate from International Journal of Climatology 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
130478 Impact of Artificial Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols investigated with a coupled aerosol-chemistry climate model (IASSA) 01.11.2010 Project funding (Div. I-III)
182239 Past and future of the Ozone Layer Evolution (POLE) 01.01.2019 Project funding (Div. I-III)
182239 Past and future of the Ozone Layer Evolution (POLE) 01.01.2019 Project funding (Div. I-III)
147659 Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II 01.01.2014 Sinergia

Abstract

Understanding of the future change in climate is a problem of utmost importance for the scientific community, society and policymakers. The influence of powerful volcanic eruptions on climate was recognized long ago. Recently, it was suggested that small volcanic eruptions can also influence climate. However, projections of future climate change in the recent and upcoming IPCC reports do not take into account any effects from either infrequent, explosive or more-numerous small volcanic eruptions, rendering our knowledge of future climate far from complete. We propose to address this missing component in future climate change projections. We will design a set of future scenarios of volcanic activity, simulate the effect of both large and small volcanic eruptions, integrate these scenarios into the standard set of future climate projections and investigate their potential effects on extreme weather events and food production. The main objectives of the project are to:•Design future scenarios of volcanic activity that include eruptions of all intensities;•Evaluate the influence of volcanic eruptions on long-term changes in major climate indicators, climate extremes and food production;•Compare the effect of volcanic eruptions with other natural and anthropogenic factors influencing climate;•Characterize and understand both the mechanisms responsible for the downward propagation of stratospheric disturbances resulting from volcanic eruptions, as well as their influence on the predictability of weather and climate. To achieve these goals, we will make use of our coupled atmosphere-ocean-aerosol-chemistry-climate model (AOACCM). This model provides a powerful tool to investigate interaction between sulfate aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics and climate. The sulfate aerosol part of the model, developed in our group, is capable of explicitly calculating the sulfate aerosol properties and therefore treating all kind of volcanic eruptions as well as other sources of sulfur containing emissions. Our project will lead to the first comprehensive assessment of the long-term natural influence of volcanic eruptions in future climate projections, their uncertainties and their impact on extreme weather events. The work will impact the future IPCC and WMO/UNEP ozone assessments and will provide better information for society and policymakers.
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