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Integrated Water Resources Modeling: Future Risks and Adaptation Strategies - a case study in the Andes of Peru

English title Integrated Water Resources Modeling: Future Risks and Adaptation Strategies - a case study in the Andes of Peru
Applicant Huggel Christian
Number 166272
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Physische Geographie Geographisches Institut Universität Zürich-Irchel
Institution of higher education University of Zurich - ZH
Main discipline Hydrology, Limnology, Glaciology
Start/End 01.11.2016 - 31.08.2021
Approved amount 353'185.00
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All Disciplines (5)

Discipline
Hydrology, Limnology, Glaciology
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Sociology
Social geography and ecology
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences

Keywords (15)

Risk assessment ; Tropical Andes; Governance; Glacier retreat ; Adaptation strategies; Climate change; Agriculture; Peru; Hydropower; Scenario Modeling; Integrated Water Resources Management; Tropical Andes; Water security; Water balance; Cross-Impact Balance analysis

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Wasser-Ressourcen spielen eine fundamentale Rolle für Gesellschaft und Ökosysteme. Das Hochgebirge mit Gletschern, Schnee, Permafrost und Seen reagiert besonders sensibel auf klimatische Veränderungen, welche starke Auswirkungen auf den Wasserabfluss und -kreislauf haben können. Eine beträchtliche Anzahl von Studien hat sich bereits mit Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Gletscher, Schnee und Abfluss auseinandergesetzt. Andererseits wurden auch einzelne Vorschläge für Anpassungsstrategien für sich ändernde und abnehmende Wasserressourcen erarbeitet. Die systematische Analyse von Risiken im Zusammenhang mit verschiedenen Einflüssen auf Wasserangebot und -nachfrage ist jedoch komplex und bisher wenig behandelt worden. Eine besondere Herausforderung sind Gebirgsregionen und Entwicklungsländer, die zwar stark betroffen sind, aber kaum über ausreichende Datengrundlagen und Infrastruktur verfügen.
Lay summary

Dieses Forschungsprojekt geht diese Herausforderung an, indem verschiedene interdisziplinäre Forschungsgruppen in der Schweiz, Deutschland und Peru zusammen arbeiten und Daten zu Wasserangebot und –nachfrage in einem integrierten Wasserbilanzmodell kombinieren, analysieren und für die nächsten Jahrzehnte projizieren. Die Arbeiten konzentrieren sich auf verschiedene vergletscherte Einzugsgebiete in den peruanischen Anden. Entwickelt und angewandt werden Methoden zur räumlich-zeitlichen Interpolation und Skalierung von hydro-klimatischen Daten aus verschiedenen boden- und satellitengestützten Quellen. Parallel dazu werden sozio-ökonomische Szenarien mit lokalen Akteuren erarbeitet, und schliesslich Risiken und mögliche Anpassungsstrategien systematisch durchgerechnet. Risiken für verschiedene ökonomische Sektoren und soziale Gruppen werden explizit analysiert und dabei Grenzen der Anpassungsfähigkeit von natürlichen und menschlichen Systemen berücksichtigt.

Das Forschungsprojekt nimmt sich gezielt wissenschaftlichen Lücken im Bereich von aktuellen und zukünftigen Wasserrisiken in entlegenen Gebirgsregionen mit beschränkten Daten an. Entsprechende Methoden werden zwar für die peruanischen Anden entwickelt und getestet, können aber auch in anderen Regionen der Welt angewandt werden. Diese Arbeiten leisten einen wichtigen Beitrag zu Lösungsansätzen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel und damit verbundenen Risiken in Bezug auf Wasserressourcen. Der Einbezug von lokalen Akteuren und Institutionen ermöglicht einerseits eine bessere Berücksichtigung des gesellschaftlichen und politischen Kontexts und erhöht andererseits die gesellschaftliche Relevanz und Potenzial der Weiterverwendung der Forschungsresultate.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 18.10.2016

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Narratives of ice loss: New approaches to shrinking glaciers and climate change adaptation
Moulton Holly, Carey Mark, Huggel Christian, Motschmann Alina (2021), Narratives of ice loss: New approaches to shrinking glaciers and climate change adaptation, in Geoforum, 125, 47-56.
70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future
Emmer Adam, Harrison Stephan, Mergili Martin, Allen Simon, Frey Holger, Huggel Christian (2020), 70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future, in Geomorphology, 365, 107178-107178.
Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
Huggel Christian, Carey Mark, Emmer Adam, Frey Holger, Walker-Crawford Noah, Wallimann-Helmer Ivo (2020), Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20(8), 2175-2193.
Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
Motschmann Alina, Huggel Christian, Carey Mark, Moulton Holly, Walker-Crawford Noah, Muñoz Randy (2020), Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in Climatic Change, 162(2), 837-858.
Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes
Motschmann Alina, Huggel Christian, Muñoz Randy, Thür Angela (2020), Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes, in Geoenvironmental Disasters, 7(1), 26-26.
Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere
Huggel Christian, Muccione Veruska, Carey Mark, James Rachel, Jurt Christine, Mechler Reinhard (2019), Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere, in Regional Environmental Change, 19(5), 1387-1399.
Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin
Drenkhan Fabian, Huggel Christian, Guardamino Lucía, Haeberli Wilfried (2019), Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, in Science of The Total Environment, 665, 465-483.
Precipitation Characteristics at Two Locations in the Tropical Andes by Means of Vertically Pointing Micro-Rain Radar Observations
Seidel Jochen, Trachte Katja, Orellana-Alvear Johanna, Figueroa Rafael, Célleri Rolando, Bendix Jörg, Fernandez Ciro, Huggel Christian (2019), Precipitation Characteristics at Two Locations in the Tropical Andes by Means of Vertically Pointing Micro-Rain Radar Observations, in Remote Sensing, 11(24), 2985-2985.
Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead
Vuille Mathias, Carey Mark, Huggel Christian, Buytaert Wouter, Rabatel Antoine, Jacobsen Dean, Soruco Alvaro, Villacis Marcos, Yarleque Christian, Elison Timm Oliver, Condom Thomas, Salzmann Nadine, Sicart Jean Emmanuel (2018), Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead, in Earth-Science Reviews, 176(May 2017), 195-213.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
ANA Peru (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Universidad Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo Peru (South America)
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
H2K UZH Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
CCA Peru (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
GEAS Peru (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
University of Oregon United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
EGU General Assembly 2021 Talk given at a conference Current and future water balance in a Peruvian water catchment – combining hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios 19.04.2021 Online, Austria Huggel Christian; Seidel Jochen; Muñoz Asmat Randy; Motschmann Alina; Weimer-Jehle Wolfgang;
Andes+ 2020 Talk given at a conference Integrating Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios in a Hydrological Model for the Santa River Basin, Peru 07.07.2020 Online, Switzerland Huggel Christian; Seidel Jochen;
EGU General Assembly 2020 Poster Integrating Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios in a Hydrological Model for the Santa River Basin, Peru 04.05.2020 Online, Austria Seidel Jochen; Bárdossy András; Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
Conference on Loss and Damage Talk given at a conference Glacier retreat and its challenges for the people of the Cordillera Blanca Peru – an insight into losses and damages 30.10.2019 Lund, Sweden Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
International Mountain Conference Poster Analyzing impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a Loss and Damage perspective –a case study from Peru 09.09.2019 Innsbruck, Austria Motschmann Alina; Huggel Christian;
EGU General Assembly 2018 Talk given at a conference Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risks: the climate litigation case of Huaraz, Peru 08.08.2019 Vienna, Austria Huggel Christian;
EGU General Assembly 2018 Poster Integrating disaster risk and water management in the Southern Andes of Peru 08.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Motschmann Alina; Huggel Christian; Muñoz Asmat Randy;
EGU General Assembly 2019 Talk given at a conference Understanding socio-hydrological systems in a context of climate and socioeconomic change: Santa river basin, Peru 07.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Muñoz Asmat Randy; Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
EGU General Assembly 2019 Poster Integrating Hydro-Climatic and Socio-Economic Data into Hydrological Models for Data-Scarce Mountain Regions - A Case Study in the Santa River Catchment, Peru 07.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Seidel Jochen; Motschmann Alina; Bárdossy András; Huggel Christian;
EGU General Assembly 2019 Poster Analyzing impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a Loss and Damage perspective –a case study from Peru 07.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
MeteoSwiss seminar Individual talk Evidence, challenges and risks of climate change in the Andes of Peru 08.01.2019 Zurich, Switzerland Huggel Christian;
Global Mountain Safeguard Research Poster Integrating disaster risk and water management in the Southern Andes of Peru 17.10.2018 Bozen, Italy Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
Symposium: Environmental Risks in Water Research – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Evaluations and Perspectives 2018 Poster Integrated Water Resources Modeling in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru 15.01.2018 Karlsruhe, Germany Seidel Jochen; Huggel Christian;
International Congress on Climate Change and its Impacts Talk given at a conference An integrative risk framework under multiple drivers of water‐related changes in the Vilcanota catchment, Southern Peru 29.11.2017 Huaraz, Peru Motschmann Alina; Huggel Christian;
International Forum on Social Sciences Talk given at a conference Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks in the Peruvian Andes 05.08.2017 Cusco, Peru Huggel Christian; Motschmann Alina;
EGU General Assembly 2017 Poster Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks 23.04.2017 Vienna, Austria Motschmann Alina; Huggel Christian;


Knowledge transfer events



Self-organised

Title Date Place
AguaFuturo Closing Workshop 01.09.2021 Online, Peru
Escenarios socio-económicos para la adaptación al cambio climático y gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos en la cuenca del Río Santa 09.08.2018 Huaraz, Peru

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Talks/events/exhibitions AguaFuturo Closing Workshop International 2021
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) by Elza Bouhassira |August 26, 2020 Comments The world is moving too slowly in its efforts to conf State of the Planet International 2020

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
198086 Cascading impacts of compound climate extremes in Switzerland 01.03.2021 COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)

Abstract

Water resources in high mountains play a fundamental role for societies and ecosystems. A growing number of studies assesses recent and future impacts in snow and ice related river runoff due to climate change and socioeconomic shifts in major mountain ranges and adjacent downstream areas. In parallel, scholars, engineers and decision-makers have come up with adaptation strategies to reduce existing and projected water supply-demand deficits. The recently published 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC has emphasized the fundamental importance of the risk-adaptation nexus for the development of adaptation strategies to reduce and manage future climate risks. However, comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity represents important limitations.This collaborative project will address this challenge by combining internationally leading expertise from geographical (GIUZ, University of Zurich), hydrological (IWS, University of Stuttgart) and social sciences (ZIRIUS, University of Stuttgart). This research, conducted in strong collaboration with local partners, focuses on the highly glaciated Santa and Vilcanota river basins in Peru, extending from the Andes to dry coastal downstream areas where water risks are of highest relevance. It proposes the coupling of hydro-climatic (water supply) and socioeconomic (water demand) data in an integrated water balance modelling framework, as a basis to develop scenarios for the future with local stakeholders, and iteratively analyse water risks and adaptation strategies based on the IPCC and IRGC risk governance frameworks. The project will be organized in five Work Packages (WP). WP1, led by IWS, aims at developing spatially and temporally consistent series of high-resolution hydro-climatic data (observed and projected), using innovative interpolation, gap-filling and climate downscaling methods. WP2 (led by GIUZ) undertakes a comprehensive analysis and quantification of water demand and related drivers as observed in the case study regions. Based on the inputs from WP1 and WP2, WP3 (led by ZIRIUS) develops consistent scenarios by combining hydro-climatic and socioeconomic drivers within a stakeholder process, and using a Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB) approach. Afterwards, WP4 (led by GIUZ) builds an integrative water balance modelling framework for current basin state (WP1, WP2) and future scenario simulations (WP3) that will identify water resources variability and availability. Finally, WP5 (led by GIUZ) will assess the related water risks for different economic sectors and social groups, considering resilience and limits to adaptation. Risk evaluation, and development and evaluation of adaptation strategies will be undertaken using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders. The project addresses several key scientific gaps related to the analysis of current and future water risks in data-scarce mountain regions. The innovation of the approach lies in the combination of climate spatio-temporal interpolation and downscaling methods, participatory scenario development, new applications of integrated hydrological modeling, and stakeholder borne analysis and evaluation of risks and adaptation options. Methodologies and conceptual approaches can be transferred to other regions with similar water risks and sparse data. The project will be conducted in close collaboration between GIUZ, IWS and ZIRIUS, offering a productive research environment. Collaboration with academic and governmental water research and management institutions in Peru with the involvement of local stakeholders ensures salient research results and a strong broader impact.
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