Project

Discipline

middle atmosphere; modeling; solar irradiance variability; climate variability; Ozone layer; observations

Lead
Le but de SIMA est de determiner l'amplitude de la variation de l'irradiance solaire spectrale (ISS) au cours du cycle solaire. Nous combinerons des observations, des simulations et des informations deja connues sur l'atmosphere et sur le Soleil. Nous creerons une base de donnees de l'irradiance solaire en fonction du temps debutant en 1970, et nous simulerons les donnees pour remplir les trous dans les observations.
Lay summary
Contenu et but du projet Les variations de l'irradiance solaire affectent notre climat. Or, puisque l'amplitude de la variation dans l'ultraviolet solaire (UVS) est incertaine, la reponse climatique est mal connue. Ce projet combinera l'utilisation de modele de chimie-climat, des observations du Soleil, la chimie, la temperature et la dynamique atmospheriques, dans un contexte statistique robuste. Ensemble, ces donnees pourront contraindre l'amplitude de la reponse du climat ainsi que celle de la variabilite solaire. Nous pourrons enfin creer une base de donnee de l'UVS qui sera utile pour les scientifiques etudiant l'interaction entre la radiation solaire et l'atmosphere terrestre. Contexte scientifique et societal Le projet fournira une evaluation de l'etat des connaissances actuelles sur l'influence du Soleil sur l'atmosphere et le climat. Une meilleure estimation de la temperature et de la reponse dynamique nous aidera a comprendre le couplage entre l'endroit ou l'influence du Soleil se produit et la meteo et le climat a la surface, en particulier en Amerique du Nord et en Europe, ou les effets sont plus prononces. Le projet contribuera aux objectifs de recherche de plusieurs projets internationaux. Mots-cles Ozone, hydroxyles, nitrates, irradiance solaire, atmosphere moyenne, modelisation numerique, observations, inference Bayesienne, dynamique.

Direct link to Lay Summary

Last update: 15.10.2015

Lead
The goal of SIMA is to determine the magnitude of the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) changes over the solar cycle. We will combine observations, simulations and prior information about the atmosphere and Sun. We will create a time-resolved solar irradiance database back to the 1970s, and will bridge past and future gaps in the observations.
Lay summary
The content and aim of the research project Solar irradiance changes affect our climate. But, the magnitude of the solar ultraviolet (SUV) variability has a large uncertainty, and so the size and spatial extent of the climate response is poorly constrained. This project will combine a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, observations of the Sun, atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics, within a powerful statistical framework. Together, these will self-constrain the response that can be induced in the terrestrial atmosphere, and how much the SSI can vary. We will then create a time-resolved SUV dataset, with uncertainties, providing valuable information for scientists investigating the interaction of solar radiation with the Earth's atmosphere. Scientific and societal context of the research project The project will give a full appraisal of the current state of knowledge regarding solar influences on atmosphere and climate. A better estimate of the temperature and dynamical response will help us understand the coupling between the where solar influence begins high up, and our weather and climate near the surface, particularly over North America and Europe, where the effect is most pronounced. The project will contribute to the research goals of several international projects. Keywords Ozone, hydroxyls, nitrates, solar irradiance, middle atmosphere, numerical modeling, observations, Bayesian inference, dynamics.

Direct link to Lay Summary

Last update: 15.10.2015

BASIC Composite Ozone Time-Series Data version 1

Author	Alsing, Justin; Ball, William
Publication date	05.09.2017
Persistent Identifier (PID)	10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.1
Repository	Mendeley Data
Abstract

BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite ozone time-series dataset built from a Bayesian joint self-calibration analysis of multiple composite ozone datasets. The construction of the BASIC composite is described in detail in the paper:Ball et al, Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites, ACP (2017).If you use the BASIC dataset, please cite both the DOI for this data page and Ball et al 2017 (ACP).The netCDF file includes variables for time, pressure and latitude giving the Julian dates* and pressure and latitude grid respectively. The ozone time-series data is given in the variable o3[time, pressure, latitude] and associated (time-varying) 1-sigma uncertainties are given in sigma_o3[time, pressure, latitude].Version 1 of the BASIC ozone composite is built from SWOOSH v2.6, GOZCARDS v1.0, SBUV-MOD v8.6 and SBUV-MER as described in Tummon et al 2015.

BASIC Composite Ozone Time-Series Data version 2

Author	Alsing, Justin; Ball, William
Publication date	12.12.2017
Persistent Identifier (PID)	10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.2
Repository	Mendeley Data
Abstract

BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite ozone time-series dataset built from a Bayesian joint self-calibration analysis of multiple composite ozone datasets. The construction of the BASIC composite is described in detail in the paper:Ball et al, Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites, ACP (2017).If you use the BASIC dataset, please cite both the DOI for this data page and Ball et al 2017 (ACP).The netCDF file includes variables for time, pressure and latitude giving the Julian dates* and pressure and latitude grid respectively. The ozone time-series data is given in the variable o3[time, pressure, latitude] and associated (time-varying) 1-sigma uncertainties are given in sigma_o3[time, pressure, latitude].BASIC_V1_swooshV2.6_gozcardsV1.0_sbuvmodV8.6_sbuvmer.nc is built from SWOOSH v2.6, GOZCARDS v1.0, SBUV-MOD v8.6 and SBUV-MER (as described in Tummon et al 2015). This corresponds to the BASIC composite presented in Ball et al 2017 (ACP); the data runs up until Dec 2012.BASIC_V1_swooshV2.6_gozcardsV2.20.nc is built from SWOOSH v2.6 and GOZCARDS v2.20; the updated data runs up until Dec 2016. This data was used in the revised version of Ball et al, Continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsets ozone layer recovery, 2017 (ACPD) (referred to as merged-swoosh/gozcards in that paper).

BASIC Composite Ozone Time-Series Data version 3

Author	Alsing, Justin; Ball, William
Publication date	05.09.2019
Persistent Identifier (PID)	http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.3
Repository	Mendeley Data
Abstract

BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite ozone time-series dataset built from a Bayesian joint self-calibration analysis of multiple composite ozone datasets. The construction of the BASIC composite is described in detail in the paper:Ball et al, Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites, ACP (2017).If you use the BASIC dataset, please cite both the DOI for this data page and Ball et al 2017 (ACP). The netCDF file includes variables for time, pressure and latitude giving the Julian dates* and pressure and latitude grid respectively. The ozone time-series data is given in the variable o3[time, pressure, latitude] and associated (time-varying) 1-sigma uncertainties are given in sigma_o3[time, pressure, latitude].BASIC_V1_swooshV2.6_gozcardsV1.0_sbuvmodV8.6_sbuvmer.nc is built from SWOOSH v2.6, GOZCARDS v1.0, SBUV-MOD v8.6 and SBUV-MER (as described in Tummon et al 2015). This corresponds to the BASIC composite presented in Ball et al 2017 (ACP); the data runs up until Dec 2012.BASIC_V1_swooshV2.6_gozcardsV2.20.nc is built from SWOOSH v2.6 and GOZCARDS v2.20; the updated data runs up until Dec 2018. This data was used in the revised version of Ball et al, Continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsets ozone layer recovery, 2017 (ACPD) (referred to as merged-swoosh/gozcards in that paper). *00:00:00.0 on 1/1/1980=2444239.5

Active participation

Communication	Title	Media	Place	Year

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Number	Title	Start	Funding scheme

SIMA is an extension of the “Study of factors influencing ozone layer evolution” (SILA) project. One of the major factors influencing ozone and the middle atmosphere are changes in spectral solar irradi-ance. On timescales longer than a few months this is still a highly uncertain quantity and, therefore, so is its impact on chemistry, temperature and dynamics in the middle atmosphere. In SIMA, we propose to simultaneously determine solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and the range of variability the Sun can induce in the atmosphere. Our objectives are:1) To develop a new technique to estimate SSI variability, and the atmospheric response to SSI, using atmospheric observations and state-of-the-art models by:a)expanding the Bayesian inference approach developed by Ball et al (2014a) to incorporate, in addition to ozone, other chemistry, temperature and dynamics;b)analysing and preparing observations of stratospheric variables and their uncertainties;c)performing multiple simulations with 2D and 3D models to quantify the atmospheric response and establish the link between SSI and atmospheric variables key to the Bayesian approach;d)evaluating SSI datasets to develop stronger priors, independently of atmospheric observations.2) We will fully appraise the level of uncertainty in observations and modelling, both of SSI and of stratospheric responses to solar variability. 3) A direct outcome will be a database of time-resolved spectral solar irradiance (SSI) for application in studies of variations in the Earth’s atmosphere, climate, and of the Sun, from 1970 to present, in-cluding, crucially, periods when direct measurements are either very poor or missing.The results will advance our understanding of solar variability, its impact on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry, and will benefit, among others: (i) climate scientists working to understand the influ-ence of solar variability on climate; (ii) climate scientists and meteorologists working on regional cli-mate variability, as well as seasonal and decadal prediction; (iii) atmospheric chemists and those re-searching the composition of the middle atmosphere; (iv) atmospheric dynamicists investigating dy-namical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere; (v) solar physicists studying the relation-ship between the Sun's magnetic activity and its radiative output. In addition, we will also contribute to research and the goals of the international activities of WCRP SPARC SOLARIS/HEPPA and SCOSTEP VarSITI ROSMIC.