lahars; multi-hazard assessment; modeling; tephra ; probabilistic analysis; Puyehue-Cordon Calle Volcanic Complex; vulnerability; risk reduction; fragility curves; volcanic risk; impact
Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Frischknecht Corine, Menoni Scira, Garcia Alexander (2021), Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile), in Frontiers in Earth Science
, 9, 645945.
Dominguez Lucia, Rossi Eduardo, Mingari Leonardo, Bonadonna Costanza, Forte Pablo, Panebianco Juan Esteban, Bran Donaldo (2020), Mass flux decay timescales of volcanic particles due to aeolian processes in the Argentinian Patagonia steppe, in Scientific Reports
, 10(1), 14456-14456.
Jarvis Paul A., Bonadonna Costanza, Dominguez Lucia, Forte Pablo, Frischknecht Corine, Bran Donaldo, Aguilar Rigoberto, Beckett Frances, Elissondo Manuela, Gillies John, Kueppers Ulrich, Merrison Jonathan, Varley Nick, Wallace Kristi L. (2020), Aeolian Remobilisation of Volcanic Ash: Outcomes of a Workshop in the Argentinian Patagonia, in Frontiers in Earth Science
, 8, 8.
Mingari Leonardo, Folch Arnau, Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza (2020), Volcanic Ash Resuspension in Patagonia: Numerical Simulations and Observations, in Atmosphere
, 11(9), 977-977.
Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Forte Pablo, Jarvis Paul Antony, Cioni Raffaello, Mingari Leonardo, Bran Donaldo, Panebianco Juan Esteban (2020), Aeolian Remobilisation of the 2011-Cordón Caulle Tephra-Fallout Deposit: Example of an Important Process in the Life Cycle of Volcanic Ash, in Frontiers in Earth Science
, 7, 343.
Baumann Valérie, Bonadonna Costanza, Cuomo Sabatino, Moscariello Mariagiovanna, Biass Sebastien, Pistolesi Marco, Gattuso Alessandro (2019), Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
, 19(11), 2421-2449.
Baumann V., Bonadonna C., Cuomo S., Moscariello M. (2019), Modelling of erosion processes associated with rainfall-triggered lahars following the 2011 Cordon Caulle eruption (Chile), in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Baumann Valérie, Bonadonna Costanza, Cuomo Sabatino, Moscariello Mariagiovanna, Manzella Irene (2018), Slope stability models for rainfall-induced lahars during long-lasting eruptions, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
, 359, 78-94.
Forte Pablo, Domínguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Gregg Chris E., Bran Donaldo, Bird Deanne, Castro Jonathan M. (2018), Ash resuspension related to the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile, in a rural community of Patagonia, Argentina, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
, 350, 18-32.
The science of risk assessment is relatively young in studies of natural hazards and existing methods are mostly adapted from the financial industry. No comprehensive method is widely accepted and, while several models identify some individual aspects of hazard and vulnerability, they lack inclusion of key indicators of both vulnerability and resilience. This obscures our understanding of the real risk we face by natural hazards. Improvements are therefore needed in techniques for risk assessment. Recent eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland (2010) and of Cordón Caulle, Chile (2011) demonstrated that society faces great risk from even small to moderate size eruptions. For example, the total impact on global GDP through the April-May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption was US$5 billion! Improving methods for assessing risk will allow us to better utilize available resources for reducing risk. We therefore propose to develop a new framework for the assessment of volcanic risk that integrates relevant conditions of hazard(s), built environment (buildings and infrastructures), ecosystem, socio-economic factors and resilience to compile thematic risk maps. Such a model will be applied and validated on the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (PCCVC) of Chile. We have assembled a multi-disciplinary team from physical and social sciences, planning and economics with considerable international experience in studies of volcanic hazards and vulnerability that will work together with national and international agencies for risk reduction. Cordón Caulle (CC) volcano, part of the PCCVC, erupted explosively in 2011 after decades of repose, generating multiple hazards that occurred over multiple temporal and spatial scales. The eruption caused widespread social and economic impacts both nationally and internationally. Due to prevailing wind patterns, volcanic ash was mostly dispersed across a wide region of Argentina. In addition, during and after the eruption, the fine ash accumulated on the ground surface was and continues to be remobilized by strong winds and vehicular traffic, causing additional impacts over greater land areas even at large distances from the volcano. The CC eruption demonstrated the complex connection amongst hazards and physical, social, economic and systemic vulnerabilities that provides an opportunity to gather fundamental insights into their contributions to short- and long-term volcanic risk. Furthermore, 112 volcanoes located along the Andes between Chile and Argentina have erupted in the Holocene period, with the potential to affect ~800,000 people distributed along the border.Our goal is to develop an integrated risk-analysis framework adapted to a volcanic context that combines hazard assessment with vulnerability and resilience assessment. Specific objectives are to: i) compile a hazard assessment of the PCCVC for tephra primary sedimentation, atmospheric dispersal and resuspension and lahars; ii) conduct physical and systemic vulnerability assessments related to each volcanic hazard based on dedicated fragility curves combined with resilience capacity to recover after an event; iii) combine outcomes of i) and ii) to compile thematic-risk maps which will be used to quantify critical risk parameters (e.g., value of damages, loss of buildings, loss of agricultural land); and iv) transfer our research findings to national authorities in Argentina and more widely through our Geneva-based Disaster Risk Reduction partners, publications and scientific conferences.The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will develop a new risk assessment tool that incorporates important indicators of vulnerability and resilience. We will do so by exploring a major international question: how to reduce short- and long-term volcanic risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damages? The results will be readily generalizable to other areas and other hazards. Broader impacts include that the findings will serve as a platform for developing multiple-hazard volcanic risk assessment and reduction models with tremendous potential for real life application for hazards in Argentina and worldwide.