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A new integrative multi-hazard volcanic risk assessment combining multi-temporal and multi-spatial scales

English title A new integrative multi-hazard volcanic risk assessment combining multi-temporal and multi-spatial scales
Applicant Bonadonna Costanza
Number 163152
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Département des sciences de la Terre Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Start/End 01.11.2015 - 31.10.2019
Approved amount 311'223.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Geology

Keywords (11)

lahars; multi-hazard assessment; modeling; tephra ; probabilistic analysis; Puyehue-Cordon Calle Volcanic Complex; vulnerability; risk reduction; fragility curves; volcanic risk; impact

Lay Summary (Italian)

Lead
Come dimostrato dalle crisi vulcaniche recenti dei vulcani Eyjafjallajökull (Islanda, 2010) e Cordón Caulle (Cile, 2011), le eruzioni esplosive anche di moderata intensità possono paralizzare interi settori economici, e, in particolar modo, il commercio, l’agricoltura, il turismo e i trasporti, e creare notevoli danni alle infrastrutture e alla salute, sia di persone che di animali. Le analisi di rischio degli ultimi decenni si sono spesso limitate allo studio della pericolosità di queste eruzioni, ovvero della loro probabilità di accadimento, della descrizione dei parametri fisici associati, come massa eruttata e altezza della colonna eruttiva, e dello studio della distribuzione dei prodotti vulcanici, come la dispersione della cenere. Tuttavia, misure di mitigazione efficicaci dei rischi vulcanici necessitano anche di studi multidisciplinari che possano descrivere e quantificare l’interazione delle eruzioni con i sistemi urbani e socio-economici più esposti.
Lay summary

Soggetto e obiettivo

Il nostro obiettivo principale è lo sviluppo di una nuova strategia multidiscipliare per l’analisi del rischio vulcanico che combini la valutazione della pericolosità con valutazioni di vulnerabilità e resilienza utilizzando l’eruzione del 2011 del vulcano Cordón Caulle (Cile) come caso studio. Più precisamente, redigeremo mappe di pericolosità per flussi di fango (lahars) e per la ricaduta e la rimobilizzazione di cenere vulcanica, che sono stati le cause principali dei danni associati con questa eruzione, che combineremo con la valutazione di vulnerabilità e resilienza per generare mappe di rischio, necessarie per mitigare gli effetti di posibili eruzioni future. La combinazione della valutazione di pericolosità con gli studi di vulnerabilità e resilienza verrà fatta grazie alla costruzione di curve di fragilità che permettono di descrivere la probabilità di subire determinati danni fisici o socio-economici in relazione a fenomeni vulcanici specifici, come ad esempio l’accumulo di cenere o il passaggio di flussi di fango.

 

Contesto socio-scientifico

Il nostro lavoro permetterà di estendere gli studi di analisi di rischio vulcanico includendo aspetti urbanistici e socio-economici spesso ignorati in precedenza che serviranno sia per la gestione locale dei rischi vulcanici sia a stimolare la comunità scientifica internazionale verso nuove direzioni di ricerca che possano favorire lo sviluppo di strategie sostenibili per la gestione dei rischi naturali in genere. I risultati attesi permetteranno anche una migliore comprensione di fenomeni vulcanici poco studiati, come la rimobilizzazione di cenere per mezzo dei venti atmosferici, e dell’interazione fra fenomeni vulcanici multiplici, come caduta di cenere, rimobilizzazione di cenere e colate di fango (lahars).

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 09.10.2015

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile)
Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Frischknecht Corine, Menoni Scira, Garcia Alexander (2021), Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile), in Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 645945.
Mass flux decay timescales of volcanic particles due to aeolian processes in the Argentinian Patagonia steppe
Dominguez Lucia, Rossi Eduardo, Mingari Leonardo, Bonadonna Costanza, Forte Pablo, Panebianco Juan Esteban, Bran Donaldo (2020), Mass flux decay timescales of volcanic particles due to aeolian processes in the Argentinian Patagonia steppe, in Scientific Reports, 10(1), 14456-14456.
Aeolian Remobilisation of Volcanic Ash: Outcomes of a Workshop in the Argentinian Patagonia
Jarvis Paul A., Bonadonna Costanza, Dominguez Lucia, Forte Pablo, Frischknecht Corine, Bran Donaldo, Aguilar Rigoberto, Beckett Frances, Elissondo Manuela, Gillies John, Kueppers Ulrich, Merrison Jonathan, Varley Nick, Wallace Kristi L. (2020), Aeolian Remobilisation of Volcanic Ash: Outcomes of a Workshop in the Argentinian Patagonia, in Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 8.
Volcanic Ash Resuspension in Patagonia: Numerical Simulations and Observations
Mingari Leonardo, Folch Arnau, Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza (2020), Volcanic Ash Resuspension in Patagonia: Numerical Simulations and Observations, in Atmosphere, 11(9), 977-977.
Aeolian Remobilisation of the 2011-Cordón Caulle Tephra-Fallout Deposit: Example of an Important Process in the Life Cycle of Volcanic Ash
Dominguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Forte Pablo, Jarvis Paul Antony, Cioni Raffaello, Mingari Leonardo, Bran Donaldo, Panebianco Juan Esteban (2020), Aeolian Remobilisation of the 2011-Cordón Caulle Tephra-Fallout Deposit: Example of an Important Process in the Life Cycle of Volcanic Ash, in Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, 343.
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Baumann Valérie, Bonadonna Costanza, Cuomo Sabatino, Moscariello Mariagiovanna, Biass Sebastien, Pistolesi Marco, Gattuso Alessandro (2019), Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19(11), 2421-2449.
Modelling of erosion processes associated with rainfall-triggered lahars following the 2011 Cordon Caulle eruption (Chile)
Baumann V., Bonadonna C., Cuomo S., Moscariello M. (2019), Modelling of erosion processes associated with rainfall-triggered lahars following the 2011 Cordon Caulle eruption (Chile), in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 106727-106727.
Slope stability models for rainfall-induced lahars during long-lasting eruptions
Baumann Valérie, Bonadonna Costanza, Cuomo Sabatino, Moscariello Mariagiovanna, Manzella Irene (2018), Slope stability models for rainfall-induced lahars during long-lasting eruptions, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 359, 78-94.
Ash resuspension related to the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile, in a rural community of Patagonia, Argentina
Forte Pablo, Domínguez Lucia, Bonadonna Costanza, Gregg Chris E., Bran Donaldo, Bird Deanne, Castro Jonathan M. (2018), Ash resuspension related to the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile, in a rural community of Patagonia, Argentina, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 350, 18-32.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Prof Sabatino Cuomo (University of Salerno) Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Dr. Héctor Taddeo (National Institute of Technology and Agriculture of Argentina) Argentina (South America)
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Prof Raffaello Cioni (University of Florence) Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
Dr. Estela Collini (National Meteorological Service of Argentina, SMN) Argentina (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Prof. Scira Menoni (Politecnico di Milano and University of Geneva) Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Dr Donaldo Bran (National Institute of Technology and Agriculture of Argentina) Argentina (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Dr. Irene Manzella (Dpt of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva and now University of Plymouth) Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Dr. Corine Frischknecht (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Ms Valerie Baumann (Mining and Geological Survey of Argentina, SEGEMAR, and University of Geneva) Argentina (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Prof. Chris Gregg (East Tennessee State University and University of Geneva) United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Dr Pablo Forte (University of Buenos Aires) Argentina (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Dr Leonardo Mingari (National Meteorological Service of Argentina) Argentina (South America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Volcano Observatory Best Practice Workshop #4 Talk given at a conference Characterization and description of tephra-related hazards 18.11.2019 Mexico City, Mexico Bonadonna Costanza;
WORKSHOP on WIND-REMOBILISATION PROCESSES OF VOLCANIC ASH Talk given at a conference Aeolian transport and deposition mechanisms of tephra remobilisation. Oral presentation at the Workshop Wind-remobilisation processes of volcanic ash 23.10.2019 San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina Dominguez Barragan Lucia; Bonadonna Costanza;
Cities on Volcanoes 10 Talk given at a conference Wind-remobilisation of volcanic particles: field observations and physical processes 02.09.2018 Naples, Italy Bonadonna Costanza; Dominguez Barragan Lucia;
Cities on Volcanoes 10 Talk given at a conference Impact assessment framework due to tephra fallout for critical infrastructures: an innovative forensic analysis 02.09.2018 Naples, Italy Dominguez Barragan Lucia; Bonadonna Costanza;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly Talk given at a conference Physical characterization of volcanic particle resuspension: the case of the 2011-2012 Cordón Caulle eruption (Chile) 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Bonadonna Costanza; Dominguez Barragan Lucia;
Journée Biennales des Géosciences et de l’Environment “Au-delà de l’aléa” Talk given at a conference Analyse des impactes volcaniques par les sciences forensiques: un outil innovateur pour l’évaluation du risqué 15.02.2018 Lausanne, Switzerland Dominguez Barragan Lucia; Bonadonna Costanza;
Cities on Volcanoes 9 Poster Short and long-term impact associated with volcanic tephra: the Cordón Caulle eruption, 2011 (Chile) 20.11.2016 Puerto Varas, Chile Bonadonna Costanza; Dominguez Barragan Lucia;
Geoscience Communication School Poster A new integrative multi-hazard volcanic risk assessment combining multi-temporal and multi-spatial scales 10.04.2016 Castiglione del Lago, Italy Dominguez Barragan Lucia;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
WORKSHOP on WIND-REMOBILISATION PROCESSES OF VOLCANIC ASH 23.10.2019 San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina

Knowledge transfer events



Self-organised

Title Date Place

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Científicos estudiaron el impacto de las cenizas del Cordón Caulle Rio Negro Periodico Argentino International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Estudio de la Universidad de Ginebra: “tormentas de cenizas seguirán ocurriendo en el futuro" El Cordillerano periodico argentino International 2019
Video/Film Impacto de las cenizas volcanicas International 2019

Awards

Title Year
“Un pueblo, Un Volcán”, film awarded first place in the “VolcanOscars-2018” in the category of films created and edited by early-career researchers at the Conference Cities on Volcanoes 10, Naples, Italy, from the 2nd to the 7th September 2018. http://www.citiesonvolcanoes10.com 2018

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
149285 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.10.2013 Project funding
169463 Modelling settling-driven gravitational instabilities from volcanic clouds 01.09.2017 Project funding
188757 A new probabilistic framework for regional volcanic risk assessment including hazards interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales 01.11.2020 Project funding

Abstract

The science of risk assessment is relatively young in studies of natural hazards and existing methods are mostly adapted from the financial industry. No comprehensive method is widely accepted and, while several models identify some individual aspects of hazard and vulnerability, they lack inclusion of key indicators of both vulnerability and resilience. This obscures our understanding of the real risk we face by natural hazards. Improvements are therefore needed in techniques for risk assessment. Recent eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland (2010) and of Cordón Caulle, Chile (2011) demonstrated that society faces great risk from even small to moderate size eruptions. For example, the total impact on global GDP through the April-May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption was US$5 billion! Improving methods for assessing risk will allow us to better utilize available resources for reducing risk. We therefore propose to develop a new framework for the assessment of volcanic risk that integrates relevant conditions of hazard(s), built environment (buildings and infrastructures), ecosystem, socio-economic factors and resilience to compile thematic risk maps. Such a model will be applied and validated on the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (PCCVC) of Chile. We have assembled a multi-disciplinary team from physical and social sciences, planning and economics with considerable international experience in studies of volcanic hazards and vulnerability that will work together with national and international agencies for risk reduction. Cordón Caulle (CC) volcano, part of the PCCVC, erupted explosively in 2011 after decades of repose, generating multiple hazards that occurred over multiple temporal and spatial scales. The eruption caused widespread social and economic impacts both nationally and internationally. Due to prevailing wind patterns, volcanic ash was mostly dispersed across a wide region of Argentina. In addition, during and after the eruption, the fine ash accumulated on the ground surface was and continues to be remobilized by strong winds and vehicular traffic, causing additional impacts over greater land areas even at large distances from the volcano. The CC eruption demonstrated the complex connection amongst hazards and physical, social, economic and systemic vulnerabilities that provides an opportunity to gather fundamental insights into their contributions to short- and long-term volcanic risk. Furthermore, 112 volcanoes located along the Andes between Chile and Argentina have erupted in the Holocene period, with the potential to affect ~800,000 people distributed along the border.Our goal is to develop an integrated risk-analysis framework adapted to a volcanic context that combines hazard assessment with vulnerability and resilience assessment. Specific objectives are to: i) compile a hazard assessment of the PCCVC for tephra primary sedimentation, atmospheric dispersal and resuspension and lahars; ii) conduct physical and systemic vulnerability assessments related to each volcanic hazard based on dedicated fragility curves combined with resilience capacity to recover after an event; iii) combine outcomes of i) and ii) to compile thematic-risk maps which will be used to quantify critical risk parameters (e.g., value of damages, loss of buildings, loss of agricultural land); and iv) transfer our research findings to national authorities in Argentina and more widely through our Geneva-based Disaster Risk Reduction partners, publications and scientific conferences.The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will develop a new risk assessment tool that incorporates important indicators of vulnerability and resilience. We will do so by exploring a major international question: how to reduce short- and long-term volcanic risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damages? The results will be readily generalizable to other areas and other hazards. Broader impacts include that the findings will serve as a platform for developing multiple-hazard volcanic risk assessment and reduction models with tremendous potential for real life application for hazards in Argentina and worldwide.
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