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A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

English title A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy
Applicant Bonadonna Costanza
Number 149285
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Département des sciences de la Terre Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Start/End 01.10.2013 - 30.06.2015
Approved amount 107'737.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Geology

Keywords (8)

modeling; probabilistic analysis; multi-hazard assessment; volcanic risk; risk reduction; Vulcano; risk mitigation; risk management

Lay Summary (French)

Lead
Les éruptions volcaniques sont accompagnées d’un éventail d’aléas causant des problèmes aux hommes et aux infrastructures. La présence de signes précurseurs rend les stratégies proactives propices à être efficace à réduire le risque. L’île de Vulcano en Italie présente des signes clairs d’agitation pouvant conduire à des éruptions destructrices. C’est donc un lieu idéal pour le développement de nouveaux modèles pour la réduction du risque volcanique dans des environnements nécessiteux.
Lay summary

Les éruptions volcaniques sont accompagnées d’aléas causant des problèmes à courts et moyens termes aux hommes et aux infrastructures. Ces aléas diffèrent néanmoins d’autres de part le fait qu’ils sont fréquemment précédés de signes précurseurs laissant le temps pour une réponse rapide. L’étude du risque volcanique est donc désirable quant aux possibles retours sur investissements en termes de vies et de propriétés. Néanmoins, malgré un effort international pour réduire l’impact d’éruptions, les stratégies restent largement réactive ou inactives plutôt que proactives. Dès lors, nous développons ici un nouveau modèle multidisciplinaire pour l’étude du risque volcanique basé sur l’île de Vulcano en Italie, avec comme but la réduction du risque sur les vies humaines et les propriétés. Les objectifs sont i) raffiner le modèle d’analyse du risque basé sur des études exhaustives des aléas et de la vulnérabilité, ii) le développement d’un modèle d’évacuation dynamique, iii) l’identification de mesures de mitigation et iv) la communication des résultats aux autorités opérationnelles.

Vulcano présente des signes distincts d’activité et est un lieu type pour un style éruptif destructeur. Le système actif (La Fossa) a été identifié comme capable de produire un éventail de styles et d’intensités d’éruptions associées à différents aléas. Dès lors, Vulcano est un environnement idéal pour tester un model de risque comprenant divers aléas. Ce projet verra une évaluation complète du risque lié aux retombées de tephra pour tous les scénarios éruptifs se basant sur des techniques probabilistes. Ces mêmes techniques seront adaptées à d’autres phénomènes tels que impact de balistiques, les émissions de gaz ou les lahars secondaires, souvent ignorés dans les études de risque volcanique.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 29.09.2013

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Name Institute

Publications

Publication
TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout
Biass Sébastien, Biass Sébastien, Bonadonna Costanza, Connor Laura, Connor Charles (2016), TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout, in Journal of Applied Volcanology, 5(1), 1.
Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy
Biass Sebastien, Biass Sebastien, Bonadonna Costanza, di Traglia Federico, Pistolesi Marco, Rosi Mauro, Lestuzzi Pierino (2016), Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy, in Bulletin of Volcanology, 78(5), 1-22.
Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics — A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy
Biass Sebastien, Falcone JeanLuc, Bonadonna Costanza, Di Traglia Federico, Pistolesi Marco, Rosi Mauro, Lestuzzi Pierino (2016), Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics — A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 1.
Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand
Thompson MaryAnne, Lindsay JanM., Sandri Laura, Biass Sébastien, Bonadonna Costanza, Jolly Gill, Marzocchi Warner (2015), Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, in Bulletin of Volcanology, 77(5), 1-23.
Physical characterization of explosive volcanic eruptions based on tephra deposits: Propagation of uncertainties and sensitivity analysis
Bonadonna Costanza, Biass Sébastien, Costa Antonio (2015), Physical characterization of explosive volcanic eruptions based on tephra deposits: Propagation of uncertainties and sensitivity analysis, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 296, 80-100.
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 1: Hazard assessment
Biass S, Scaini C, Bonadonna C, Folch A, Smith K, Höskuldsson A (2014), A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 1: Hazard assessment, in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14(8), 2265-2287.
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 2: Vulnerability and impact
Scaini C, Biass S, Galderisi A, Bonadonna C, Folch A, Smith K, Höskuldsson A (2014), A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 2: Vulnerability and impact, in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14(8), 2289-2312.
Acoustic wavefield and Mach wave radiation of flashing arcs in strombolian explosion measured by image luminance
Genco Riccardo, Ripepe Maurizio, Marchetti Emanuele, Bonadonna Costanza, Biass Sebastien (2014), Acoustic wavefield and Mach wave radiation of flashing arcs in strombolian explosion measured by image luminance, in Geophysical Research Letters, 41(20), 2014-061597.
Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)
Sandri Laura, Thouret Jean-Claude, Constantinescu Robert, Biass Sébastien, Tonini Roberto (2014), Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru), in Bulletin of Volcanology, 76(2), 1-26.
TError: towards a better quantification of the uncertainty propagated during the characterization of tephra deposits
Biass Sébastien, Bagheri G, Aeberhard WH, Bonadonna Costanza (2014), TError: towards a better quantification of the uncertainty propagated during the characterization of tephra deposits, in Statistics in Volcanology, 1(2), 1-27.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Dr. Corine Frischknecht, Department of Mineralogy, University of Geneva Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Prof. Chris Gregg (East Tennessee State University, USA and UNIGE) United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Dr. Antonio Costa, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
Jean-Luc Falcone, CUI, UNIGE Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
Dr. Franco Romerio, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Geneva Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Pierino Lestuzzi, EPFL, Lausanne Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
Prof. Mauro Rosi, Italian Civil Protection Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Dr. Simona Scollo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Research Infrastructure

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
IUGG General Assembly Talk given at a conference TephraProb: a toolbox for the probabilistic hazard assessment of ground tephra accumulation 22.06.2015 Prague, Czech Republic Bonadonna Costanza; Biass Sébastien;
IUGG General Assembly Talk given at a conference Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island 22.06.2015 Prague, Czech Republic Bonadonna Costanza; Biass Sébastien;
IUGG General Assembly Talk given at a conference TError: a systematic approach for the quantification of the uncertainty propagated during the characterization of tephra deposits 22.06.2015 Prague, Czech Republic Biass Sébastien; Bonadonna Costanza;
AGU General Assembly Talk given at a conference Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island 15.12.2014 San Francisco, United States of America Bonadonna Costanza; Biass Sébastien;
Swiss Geoscience Meeting Talk given at a conference Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: The example of four Icelandic volcanoes 21.11.2014 Fribourg, Switzerland Biass Sébastien;
EGU General Assembly Talk given at a conference Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: The example of four Icelandic volcanoes 27.04.2014 Vienna, Austria Biass Sébastien;
2nd IUGG-WMO workshop on Ash dispersal forecast and civil aviation, Geneva, Switzerland Talk given at a conference Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes 18.11.2013 Geneva, Switzerland Biass Sébastien; Bonadonna Costanza;


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Talks/events/exhibitions Workshop on Characterization and modelling of tephra sedimentation and associated hazards, OVSICORI, International 2014

Awards

Title Year
IAVCEI George Walker Award: The award recognizes achievements of a recent outstanding graduate in the fields of research encompassed by IAVCEI (International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior; http://www.iavcei.org/iavcei-awards/george-walker-medal.html) 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
163152 A new integrative multi-hazard volcanic risk assessment combining multi-temporal and multi-spatial scales 01.11.2015 Project funding
129997 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.05.2010 Project funding
129997 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.05.2010 Project funding
188757 A new probabilistic framework for regional volcanic risk assessment including hazards interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales 01.11.2020 Project funding

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property, but volcanic hazards differ from many other hazards in that there are normally clear precursory signs of eruptions, which allow for short-term responses. This in turn makes studies of volcanic risk desirable because of the potential return on investment measured in lives and property saved. Despite international strategies to reduce the impacts of eruptions, the efforts of decision makers remain largely reactive or inactive, rather than proactive. Here we propose to develop a new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk using the island of Vulcano, Italy, as a case study. We have assembled a team of physical and social scientists, economists, planners and Civil Protection professionals with track records in risk assessment and management to accomplish the goal and objectives. The ultimate goal of this project is to reduce risk to volcanic eruptions by saving lives and property. Specific objectives include:1. develop a new volcanic risk-evaluation model based on comprehensive hazard and vulnerability assessments that includes analysis of volcanic events and their impacts;2. develop a dynamic evacuation model based on an accurate evaluation of accessibility to critical infrastructures (e.g. ports) under various hazardous conditions and impediments associated with volcanic activity; 3. identify potential mitigation measures combined with a cost-benefit analysis and4. translate research findings to policy-relevant decision making at local to national levels.The model will be developed by combining hazard assessments with vulnerability assessments to produce thematic risk maps that quantify the expected loss from specific eruption scenarios. This quantification of risk is the starting point for identifying achievable mitigation measures, each of which will be analyzed in cost-benefit analyses to assess their financial feasibility. Mitigation options and procedures will be discussed in collaboration with the Italian Civil Protection Agency who are focused on the development and enforcement of strategies for risk reduction at Vulcano and other European volcanoes. The dynamic evacuation model will investigate alternative evacuation routes and access to critical facilities (e.g. ports) as a response to impediments related to potential volcanic crisis in order to optimize the contingency plan now under development at the Italian Civil Protection Agency. The final risk-reduction model will be tested on the island of Vulcano, which is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and represents the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system on the island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. This is one reason why Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk-reduction model. Other reasons relate to the social and political structure of the island and the research teams history of working there (since 2007). The last 1000 years of activity of La Fossa have been characterized in detail and the most likely eruptive scenarios identified. With the proposed project we will complete a tephra (air borne) hazard assessment for all eruptive scenarios. In particular, probabilistic strategies for hazard assessment will have to be implemented to describe specific phenomena that are often overlooked in volcanic risk assessment (e.g. long-term Vulcanian eruptions, ballistic impact, gas emissions and secondary lahars). We will also quantify and classify the built environment through vulnerable building elements for individual hazards that will be used to compile thematic hazard-specific vulnerability maps and thematic risk maps. The proposed project represents the continuation of the currently funded FNS project (No 200021-129997) and is meant to support the last two years of PhD of Mr Sebastien Biass with the involvement of a Master student of the University of Geneva.Intellectual merit. The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will work collaboratively on a major international issue, i.e. how to reduce risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damages by developing an integrated model of risk encompassing broad characterizations of both hazard and vulnerability. Broader impacts. Broader impacts are that the findings will serve as a platform for developing risk assessment models at continental volcanoes and for other events and hazards. Most importantly, the model engages emergency managers through consideration of the financial and engineering feasibility of specific mitigation options, so it has tremendous potential for real life application. Moreover, Professors, graduate and undergraduate students and Civil Protection authorities from multiple institutions will be directly involved in the project. Findings will be published in scientific conferences and journals and through white papers prepared for government agencies.
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