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Coincidence Analysis

English title Coincidence Analysis
Applicant Baumgartner Michael
Number 144736
Funding scheme SNSF Professorships
Research institution Département de Philosophie Faculté des Lettres Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Philosophy
Start/End 01.03.2014 - 31.08.2018
Approved amount 1'355'351.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Philosophy
Sociology
Political science

Keywords (11)

Boolean dimensions of causation; Regularity theory of causation; Philosophy of causation; Causal inference; Scientific methodology; Qualitative Comparative Analysis; Philosophy of biology; Philosophy of science; Philosophy of the social sciences; Causal data analysis; Coincidence Analysis

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Disziplinen, die Kausalzusammenhänge untersuchen, verwenden verschiedene quantitative und qualitative Standardmethoden zur kausalen Analyse von empirischen Daten. Speziell in den Sozialwissenschaften hat man es aber oft mit Daten oder Fragestellungen zu tun, die mit herkömmlichen Methoden nur erschwert bearbeitbar sind. Deshalb sind in den vergangenen 2 Jahrzehnten vermehrt Methoden entwickelt worden, die eine Brückenfunktion zwischen quantitativen und qualitativen Standardmethoden einnehmen.
Lay summary
Inhalt und Ziel des Forschungsprojekts

Die bekannteste dieser 'Brücken'methoden ist die vom Sozialwissenschafter C. Ragin entwickelte sogenannte Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). Obgleich QCA mittlerweile besonders in den Sozialwissenschaften breite Anwendung findet, unterliegt die Methode einigen gewichtigen Einschränkungen. So kann QCA z.B. keine kausalen Verkettungen analysieren oder um Redundanzen aus kausalen Modellen zu eliminieren ist QCA regelmässig gezwungen Annahmen über nicht empirisch gemessenes Verhalten der untersuchten Faktoren einzuführen.

Die Methode der sogenannten Coincidence Analysis (CNA), die im Fokus dieses Projektes steht, verfolgt weitgehend dieselben Ziele und beantwortet dieselben Fragen wie QCA: (i) CNA übernimmt eine Brückenfunktion zwischen quantitativen und qualitativen Standardmethoden, (ii) CNA arbeitet mit Booleschen und mengentheoretischen Techniken, (iii) CNA analysiert Konfigurationsdaten, und (iv) CNA gruppiert die Ursachen einer untersuchten Wirkung in zusammenwirkende komplexe Ursachen und voneinander unabhängig wirkende alternative Ursachen. Die Anwendung von CNA ist jedoch nicht von vergleichbaren Einschränkungen betroffen wie diejenige von QCA. Im Gegenzug liegt der Entwicklungs- und Verbreitungsstand von CNA noch weit hinter demjenigen von QCA zurück.

Ziel des vorliegenden Projektes ist es deshalb, CNA zu voller, flexibler, effizienter, theoretisch fundierter und computerunterstützter Anwendungsreife weiter zu entwickeln.


Wissenschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Kontext

Mit der Anwendungsreife von CNA wird Boolesches und mengentheoretisches kausales Schliessen auf eine ähnliche Entwicklungsstufe gehoben wie die herkömmlichen Standardmethoden. Damit wird eine wesentliche Lücke im  Werkzeugkasten der kausalen Datenanalyse geschlossen. 
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 02.04.2015

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Horizontal Surgicality and Mechanistic Constitution
Baumgartner Michael, Casini Lorenzo, Krickel Beate (2018), Horizontal Surgicality and Mechanistic Constitution, in Erkenntnis, 1-14.
The Inherent Empirical Underdetermination of Mental Causation
Baumgartner Michael (2018), The Inherent Empirical Underdetermination of Mental Causation, in Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 96, 335-350.
Reasons without argument. Bradford Skow: Reasons why, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016, x+195 pp, $70 HB
Baumgartner Michael (2017), Reasons without argument. Bradford Skow: Reasons why, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016, x+195 pp, $70 HB, in Metascience, 26(3), 511-514.
Burden Sharing in CSDP Military Operations
Haesebrouck Tim, Thiem Alrik (2017), Burden Sharing in CSDP Military Operations, in Defence and Peace Economics, 1-18.
Ockham's Razors: A User's Manual, by Elliott Sober. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015, pp. x + 314, £17.99 (paperback)
Baumgartner Michael (2017), Ockham's Razors: A User's Manual, by Elliott Sober. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015, pp. x + 314, £17.99 (paperback), in Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 96(1), 199-202.
An Abductive Theory of Constitution
Baumgartner MIchael, Casini Lorenzo (2017), An Abductive Theory of Constitution, in Philosophy of Science, 84, 214-233.
Conducting Configurational Comparative Research With Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Hands-on Tutorial for Applied Evaluation Scholars and Practitioners
Thiem Alrik (2017), Conducting Configurational Comparative Research With Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Hands-on Tutorial for Applied Evaluation Scholars and Practitioners, in American Journal of Evaluation, 420-433.
Is It Possible to Experimentally Determine the Extension of Cognition?
Baumgartner Michael, Wilutzky Wendy (2017), Is It Possible to Experimentally Determine the Extension of Cognition?, in Philosophical Psychology, 30, 1104-1125.
Model Ambiguities in Configurational Comparative Research
Baumgartner Michael, Thiem Alrik (2017), Model Ambiguities in Configurational Comparative Research, in Sociological Methods & Research, 954-987.
Often Trusted But Never (Properly) Tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Baumgartner Michael, Thiem Alrik (2017), Often Trusted But Never (Properly) Tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis, in Sociological Methods & Research, 1-23.
Analyzing Multilevel Data with QCA: Yet Another Straightforward Procedure
Thiem Alrik (2016), Analyzing Multilevel Data with QCA: Yet Another Straightforward Procedure, in Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology , 50(1), 121-128.
Back to Square One: A Reply to Munck, Paine and Schneider
Thiem Alrik, Baumgartner Michael (2016), Back to Square One: A Reply to Munck, Paine and Schneider, in Comparative Political Studies, 49, 801-806.
Back to Square One: A Reply to Munck, Paine and Schneider
Thiem Alrik, Baumgartner Michael (2016), Back to Square One: A Reply to Munck, Paine and Schneider, in Comparative Political Studies, 49, 801-806.
Enhancing Sensitivity Diagnostics for Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Combinatorial Approach
Thiem Alrik, Spöhel Reto, Dusa Adrian (2016), Enhancing Sensitivity Diagnostics for Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Combinatorial Approach, in Political Analysis, (1), 104-120.
Modeling Causal Irrelevance in Evaluations of Configurational Comparative Methods
Thiem Alrik, Baumgartner Michael (2016), Modeling Causal Irrelevance in Evaluations of Configurational Comparative Methods, in Sociological Methodology, 46, 345-357.
Standards of Good Practice and the Methodology of Necessary Conditions in Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Thiem Alrik (2016), Standards of Good Practice and the Methodology of Necessary Conditions in Qualitative Comparative Analysis, in Political Analysis, 478-484.
Still Lost in Translation! A Correction of three Misunderstandings between Configurational Comparativists and Regressional Analysts
Thiem Alrik, Baumgartner Michael, Bol Damien (2016), Still Lost in Translation! A Correction of three Misunderstandings between Configurational Comparativists and Regressional Analysts, in Comparative Political Studies, 742-774.
Enhancing the Minimization of Boolean and Multivalue Output Functions with eQMC
Dusa Adrian, Thiem Alrik (2015), Enhancing the Minimization of Boolean and Multivalue Output Functions with eQMC, in Journal of Mathematical Sociology , 39(2), 92-108.
Identifying Complex Causal Dependencies in Configurational Data with Coincidence Analysis
Baumgartner Michael, Thiem Alrik (2015), Identifying Complex Causal Dependencies in Configurational Data with Coincidence Analysis, in The R Journal, 1-9.
Parameters of Fit and Intermediate Solutions in Multi-Value Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Thiem Alrik (2015), Parameters of Fit and Intermediate Solutions in Multi-Value Qualitative Comparative Analysis, in Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 49(2), 657-674.
Parsimony and Causality
Baumgartner Michael (2015), Parsimony and Causality, in Quality & Quantity, 49, 839-856.
Navigating the Complexities of Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Case Numbers, Necessity Relations, and Model Ambiguities
Thiem Alrik (2014), Navigating the Complexities of Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Case Numbers, Necessity Relations, and Model Ambiguities, in Evaluation Review, 38, 487-513.
Causal Modeling With Multi-Value and Fuzzy-Set Coincidence Analysis
Baumgartner Michael, Ambühl Mathias, Causal Modeling With Multi-Value and Fuzzy-Set Coincidence Analysis, in Political Science Research and Methods.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Institut für Philosophie, Universität Konstanz Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Jiji Zhang, Lingnan University China (Asia)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Sozialwissenschaften Fribourg Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
International QCA Summer Workshop Talk given at a conference Are There Multiple Viable QCA Systems? 29.05.2018 Wuppertal, Germany Baumgartner Michael;
5th International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference Causal Modeling with Multi-Value and Fuzzy-Set Coincidence Analysis 14.12.2017 Zürich, Switzerland Baumgartner Michael;
Annual Lecture Series Talk given at a conference The Inherent Empirical Underdetermination of Mental Causation, 16.11.2017 Stockholm, Sweden Baumgartner Michael;
Workshop on Elliott Sober's User's Manual on Ockham's Razors Talk given at a conference Razoring Mental Causation non-Sober Style 10.10.2017 Kopenhagen, Denmark Baumgartner Michael;
Configurational Research with QCA and CNA Talk given at a conference Workshop Lead 25.09.2017 Indianapolis, United States of America Thiem Alrik; Baumgartner Michael;
General Conference of the European Sociological Association Talk given at a conference Limited empirical diversity and the incorrectness of Qualitative Comparative Analysis 29.08.2017 Athen, Greece Thiem Alrik;
Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association (EPSA) Talk given at a conference A Phantom Menace:Random Data, Model Specification and Causal Inference in Qualitative Comparative Analysis 22.06.2017 Milan, Italy Thiem Alrik;
Bergen Philosophy of Science Workshop Talk given at a conference Boolean Difference-Making: A Modern Regularity Theory of Causation 31.05.2017 Bergen, Norway Baumgartner Michael;
Annual Conference of the Empirical Methods section of the German Political Science Association (DVPW) Talk given at a conference Limited empirical diversity and the incorrectness of Qualitative Comparative Analysis 12.05.2017 Mainz, Germany Thiem Alrik;
Joint Sessions of the European Consortium for Political Research Talk given at a conference Causal Modeling with Multi-Value and Fuzzy-Set Coincidence Analysis 25.04.2017 Nottingham, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Baumgartner Michael;
Invited web-seminar "Configurational data analysis with QCA and CNA for health researchers" Individual talk Causal Modeling with QCA and CNA for Health Researchers 02.03.2017 Washington, United States of America Baumgartner Michael; Thiem Alrik;
2nd Annual Conference of the Political Methodology Section of the Political Studies Association Talk given at a conference Often trusted but never (properly) tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis 13.01.2017 Oxford, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Thiem Alrik;
4th International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference Often trusted but never (properly) tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis 08.12.2016 Zürich, Switzerland Thiem Alrik;
Workshop on Current Issues in Causation Talk given at a conference Boolean Difference-Making: A Modern Regularity Theory of Causation 02.12.2016 Copenhagen, Denmark Baumgartner Michael;
2nd Society for Metaphysics of Science Conference Talk given at a conference A Bayesian Theory of Consitution 15.09.2016 Geneva, Switzerland Baumgartner Michael;
Conference on Causality in the Sciences of the Mind and Brain Talk given at a conference The inherent empirical underdetermination of mental causation 27.06.2016 Aarhus, Denmark Baumgartner Michael;
Workshop of the Glasgow Emergence Project Talk given at a conference The inherent empirical underdetermination of mental causation 14.04.2016 Glasgow, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Baumgartner Michael;
3rd International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference Standards of Good Practice and the Methodology of Necessary Conditions in QCA 02.12.2015 Zürich, Switzerland Thiem Alrik;
Annual Conference of the Austrian Political Science Association Talk given at a conference Often Trusted But Never (Properly) Tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis 27.11.2015 Salzburg, Austria Thiem Alrik;
International Conference of European Philosophy of Science Association (EPSA15) Talk given at a conference Establishing Constitutional Relations, in Theory and in Practice 23.09.2015 Düsseldorf, Germany Baumgartner Michael;
9th International Conference of the German Society for Analytic Philosophy (GAP9) Talk given at a conference Mutual Manipulability and the Extension of Cognition 14.09.2015 Osnabrück, Germany Baumgartner Michael;
12th Conference of the European Sociological Association Talk given at a conference Often Trusted But Never (Properly) Tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis 25.08.2015 Prague, Czech Republic Baumgartner Michael; Thiem Alrik;
Annual Conference of the Empirical Methods section of the German Political Science Association Talk given at a conference Often Trusted but Never (Properly) Tested: Evaluating Qualitative Comparative Analysis 13.05.2015 Kassel, Germany Thiem Alrik;
International Conference of the German Society for the Philosophy of Science (GWP.16) Talk given at a conference Bayesian Constitutional Discovery 08.03.2015 Düsseldorf, Germany Baumgartner Michael;
Qualitative Comparative Analysis - Social Science Applications and Methodological Challenges Talk given at a conference Still lost in translation! A correction of three misunderstandings between configurational comparativists and regressional analysts 14.01.2015 Tilburg, Netherlands Thiem Alrik; Baumgartner Michael;
Qualitative Comparative Analysis - Social Science Applications and Methodological Challenges Talk given at a conference When There is More Than Meets the Eye: Model Ambiguities in Configurational Comparative Research 14.01.2015 Tilburg, Netherlands Baumgartner Michael; Thiem Alrik;
Laboratoire d'Analyse de la Gouvernance et de l'Action Publique en Europe Individual talk Is QCA of Questionable Value for Policy Research? 19.11.2014 Lausanne, Switzerland Thiem Alrik;
2nd International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference Conceptual Foundations of QCA: From Hume and Mill via Reichenbach and Mackie to QCA 05.11.2014 Zürich, Switzerland Baumgartner Michael;
2nd International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference Sensitivity Diagnostics for Measurement Error and Missing Data in Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Mathematical Approach 05.11.2014 Zürich, Switzerland Thiem Alrik;
2nd International QCA Expert Workshop Talk given at a conference When there is more than meets the eye: Model ambiguities in configurational comparative research 05.11.2014 Zürich, Switzerland Baumgartner Michael; Thiem Alrik;
European Political Science Association Annual Conference Talk given at a conference When There is More Than Meets the Eye: Model Ambiguities in Configurational Comparative Research 19.06.2014 Edinburgh, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Baumgartner Michael; Thiem Alrik;
IQMR Workshop on Causal Inference for Single Events Talk given at a conference A Regularity Theoretic Approach to Actual Causation 15.06.2014 Syracuse, United States of America Baumgartner Michael;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
Configurational Research with QCA and CNA 26.09.2016 Konstanz, Germany
Configurational Research with QCA and CNA 02.11.2015 Genf, Switzerland

Abstract

This project aims to bring Coincidence Analysis (CNA) -- a Boolean method of causal data analysis -- from the methodological drawing board to effective, flexible, and computer-assisted applicability in real-life contexts of causal discovery. Moreover, Boolean causal modeling shall be supplied with a transparent and solid theoretical and conceptual foundation.In this vein, a precise understanding of the domain of applicability and the inferential potential of CNA shall be gained. Moreover, ways for integrating CNA and other methodological frameworks shall be explored. The output of the project will be a fully worked out, ready-to-use, maximally general, and theoretically grounded method of Boolean causal data analysis that is applicable to data not processable by other methods and that, thus, constitutes a valid alternative for researchers interested in Boolean dimensions of causality.
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