weather extremes; climate change ; historical data; climate model simulations; past climate; climate dynamics
Brönnimann Stefan, Frigerio Luca, Schwander Mikhaël, Rohrer Marco, Stucki Peter, Franke Jörg (2019), Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century, in Climate of the Past
, 15(4), 1395-1409.
Rohrer Marco, BrÖnnimann Stefan, Martius Olivia, Raible Christoph C., Wild Martin (2019), Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses, in Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
, 71(1), 1-21.
Brönnimann Stefan, Martius Olivia, Rohr Christian, Bresch David N., Lin Kuan-Hui Elaine (2019), Historical weather data for climate risk assessmentHistorical weather data for climate risk assessment, in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
, 1436(1), 121-137.
Rössler Ole, Brönnimann Stefan (2018), The effect of the Tambora eruption on Swiss flood generation in 1816/1817, in Science of The Total Environment
, 627, 1218-1227.
Rohrer Marco, Brönnimann Stefan, Martius Olivia, Raible Christoph C., Wild Martin, Compo Gilbert P. (2018), Representation of Extratropical Cyclones, Blocking Anticyclones, and Alpine Circulation Types in Multiple Reanalyses and Model Simulations, in Journal of Climate
, 31(8), 3009-3031.
Brönnimann Stefan, Rohr Christian, Stucki Peter, Summermatter Stephanie (2018), 1868 – das Hochwasser, das die Schweiz veränderte: Ursachen, Folgen und Lehren für die Zukunft
, Geographica Bernensia, Bern.
Flückiger Simon, Brönnimann Stefan, Holzkämper Annelie, Fuhrer Jürg, Krämer Daniel, Pfister Christian, Rohr Christian (2017), Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios, in Environmental Research Letters
, 12(7), 074026-074026.
Rohrer Marco, Croci-Maspoli Mischa, Appenzeller Christof (2017), Climate change and circulation types in the Alpine region, in Meteorologische Zeitschrift
, 26(1), 83-92.
Schwander Mikhaël, Rohrer Marco, Brönnimann Stefan, Malik Abdul (2017), Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of Central European weather types from 1763 to 2009, in Climate of the Past Discussions
Steinacker Reinhold, Brönnimann Stefan (2017), Stationary flow near fronts, in Meteorologische Zeitschrift
, 25(6), 805-809.
BrönnimannStefan (2017), Historical Weather Extremes in Reaalyses
, Geographica Bernensia, Bern.
A large part of the damage caused by ongoing and future climatic changes is not due to changes in the mean climate state but rather due to changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme events. However, our understanding of decadal-to-centennial variability in the frequency or intensity of extreme events is still rudimentary. It is limited by both, the length of the observational record and model simulation uncertainties. Here, we propose to combine the analysis of past extreme weather events in a newly avail-able 140-yr long observation-based data set (the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” or 20CR, Compo et al. 2011) and in historical instrumental observations and climate proxies span-ning the past half millennium with a large ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art global climate model. We focus on storms, heat waves, and droughts as well as on associ-ated atmospheric flow features such as blocking or jet stream characteristics. Preliminary results suggest that the model set-up (spectral truncation of T63, 31 levels) is able to real-istically reproduce the dynamical processes leading to weather extremes. Six-hourly data from an ensemble of 30 simulations from 1600 to 2005 is available and will be used to as-sess multidecadal changes in occurrence frequencies of extreme weather events. The project will provide information on decadal-to-centennial variability of extremes during the past 400 years, a period that underwent large climatic changes on global and regional scales of both natural and anthropogenic origin. The variability of extremes will be related to the large-scale circulation, changes in mean climate, and climate forcings. Exploring multidecadal variability in the frequency of extremes is important as planning horizons for damage averting constructions typically are on the multidecadal scale. The project will likely provide new insights on the decadal variability and trends of extreme events, which is of importance for the public and stakeholders such as the insurance sector.