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Rossby wave precursors to heavy precipitation events in Switzerland: dynamics and forecast errors

English title Rossby wave precursors to heavy precipitation events in Switzerland: dynamics and forecast errors
Applicant Romppainen-Martius Olivia
Number 137543
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Oeschger-Zentrum für Klimaforschung Universität Bern
Institution of higher education University of Berne - BE
Main discipline Meteorology
Start/End 01.02.2012 - 31.01.2016
Approved amount 181'776.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Meteorology
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy

Keywords (2)

Heavy precipitation; Weather forecast

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Lay summary

Starkniederschläge in den Alpen können zu Murgängen und Steinschlag führen und dadurch grosse Schäden anrichten. Gute Vorhersagen von Starkniederschlagsereignissen auf einer Zeitskala von mehreren Tagen sind deshalb ausserordentlich wichtig. Dieses Projekt untersucht in einem ersten Schritt die Prozesse, welche zu Starkniederschlägen auf der Alpennordseite führen und in einem zweiten Schritt wie gut die Starkniederschläge mit heutigen Wettervorhersagemodellen vorhergesagt wurden. 

Es soll untersucht werden was für Wettersituationen zu Starkniederschlägen führen und ob "Warnsignale" für Starkniederschlagsereignisse bereits einige Tage vor dem Ereignis in der Atmosphäre zu finden sind. 

Dazu werden aus 40 jährigen Niederschlagszeitreihen die extremsten Niederschlagsereignisse herausgesucht. Für diese Ereignisse werden dann die Wetterverhältnisse über Europa am Tag des Ereignisses und die Wetterverhältnisse über dem Atlantik in der Woche vor dem Ereignis analysiert. Die Wetterverhältnisse werden mittels sogenannter Reanalyse Daten analysiert. Reanalyse Daten sind eine Kombination von Beobachtungsdaten und Wettermodelldaten. Detailinformationen zu den Daten sind auf folgender Webseite erhältlich: www.ecmwf.int.

In einem zweiten Schritt wird analysiert wie gut diese Ereignisse vorhergesagt waren und falls die Vorhersagen fehlerhaft waren soll nach den Ursachen für die Vorhersagefehler gesucht werden. Es werden dazu die fünf- und zehntages Prognosen des Europäischen Zentrums untersucht (www.ecmwf.int).


Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.02.2013

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide - A Review
Wirth Volkmar, Riemer Michael, Chang Edmund, Martius Olivia (2018), Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide - A Review, in Monthly Weather Review, 1.
An object-based forecast verification tool for synoptic-scale Rossby waveguides
Giannakaki Paraskevi, Martius Olivia (2016), An object-based forecast verification tool for synoptic-scale Rossby waveguides, in Weather and Forecasting, 31, 937.
Clustering of Regional-scale Extreme Precipitation Events in Southern Switzerland
Barton Yannick, Giannakaki Paraskevi, von Waldow Harald, Chevalier Clément, Pfahl Stephan, Martius Olivia (2016), Clustering of Regional-scale Extreme Precipitation Events in Southern Switzerland, in Monthly Weather Review, 144, 347.
Precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level synoptic-scale flow structures
Toreti Andrea, Giannakaki Paraskevi, Martius Olivia (2016), Precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level synoptic-scale flow structures, in Climate Dynamics, 47, 1925.
Synoptic-scale flow structures associated with extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland
Giannakaki Paraskevi, Martius Olivia (2016), Synoptic-scale flow structures associated with extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland, in International Journal of Climatology, 36, 2497.
Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation
Piaget N., Froidevaux P., Giannakaki P., Gierth F, Martius O., Riemer M., Wolf G, Grams C. (2015), Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation, in Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1922.
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of the Blocking System over Russia in Summer 2010
QuandtLisa, KellerJulia, MartiusOlivia, PintoJoaquim, JonesSarah, Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of the Blocking System over Russia in Summer 2010, in Monthly Weather Review, 1.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Universität Mainz Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Atmospheric dynamics group, IAC, ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
IUGG General Assembly Talk given at a conference Synoptic-scale flow structures associated with extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland 24.06.2015 Prag, Czech Republic Giannakaki Paraskevi;
IUGG General Assembly Poster Forecast errors of Rosbby waveguides: An object-basedspatial forecast verification tool and a short climatology of forecasterrors. M02p-357 Poster Presenter: Paraskevi Giannakaki (Switzerland) 24.06.2015 Prag, Czech Republic Giannakaki Paraskevi;
Pandowae Final Symposium Talk given at a conference Extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland and an object-based spatial forecast verification tool of Rossby waveguides 20.05.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi; Romppainen-Martius Olivia;
Pandowae Final Symposium Poster Forecast errors of Rosbby waveguides: An object- based spatial forecast verification tool and a short climatology of forecast errors 20.05.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
Colloquium of the Climate, Remote Sensing and Climate Impact Group, University of Bern Individual talk Extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland 03.12.2014 Bern, Switzerland Giannakaki Paraskevi;
1st World Weather Open Science Conference Poster Extreme Precipitation Events in Northern Switzerland 16.08.2014 Montreal, Canada Giannakaki Paraskevi;
1st World Weather Open Science Conference Talk given at a conference Object-Based Forecast Verification Tool for Rossby Waveguides 16.08.2014 Montreal, Canada Giannakaki Paraskevi;
9th PANDOWAE Workshop Talk given at a conference Extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland 19.05.2014 Klingenmünster, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly Talk given at a conference Extreme Precipitation Events in Northern Switzerland 27.04.2014 Wien, Austria Giannakaki Paraskevi;
8th Pandowae Workshop Talk given at a conference Forecast errors of Rossby waveguides 07.01.2014 Benediktbeuern, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
Swiss Geoscience Meeting Talk given at a conference Forecast errors of Rossby wave guides 15.11.2013 Lausanne, Switzerland Giannakaki Paraskevi;
Cyclone Workshop Talk given at a conference Heavy precipitation events in Northern Switzerland 22.09.2013 Montreal, Canada Giannakaki Paraskevi;
6th PANDOWAE Young Scientists Workshop Talk given at a conference Heavy precipitation events in northern Switzerland 10.06.2013 Munich, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
14th Swiss Global Change Day Poster Heavy precipitation events in Northern Switzerland 16.04.2013 Bern, Switzerland Giannakaki Paraskevi;
EGU General Assembly Poster Heavy precipitation events on northern Switzerland 12.04.2013 Wien, Austria Giannakaki Paraskevi;
7th PANDOWAE Workshop Talk given at a conference Forecast errors of Rossby waveguides 13.03.2013 Durbach, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
5th PANDOWAE Young Scientists Workshop (Winter School) Talk given at a conference Forecast errors of Rossby waveguides: the matching process 26.11.2012 Mainz, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
10th Swiss Geoscience meeting, Alpine Meteorology Symposium Talk given at a conference Heavy precipitation events in Northern Switzerland 17.11.2012 Bern, Switzerland Giannakaki Paraskevi;
11th international NCCR Climate summer school Poster Heavy precipitation events in Northern Switzerland 13.09.2012 Monte Verita, Switzerland Giannakaki Paraskevi;
6th PANDOWAE Workshop Talk given at a conference Forecast errors of Rossby waveguides 20.06.2012 Klingenmünster, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;
4th PANDOWAE Young Scientists Workshop (Spring School) Talk given at a conference An introduction to forecast errors of Rossby waveguides 19.03.2012 Karlsruhe, Germany Giannakaki Paraskevi;


Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
159905 Triggering mechanisms of synoptic-scale Rossby waves 01.09.2015 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

Heavy precipitation events occurring in steep terrain such as the Alps often trigger mass movement events (e.g. rock-falls or mud-avalanches) with devastating consequences for population, settlements and infrastructure. Breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves over western Europe can trigger such high-impact heavy precipitation events on the Alpine south-side. The breaking waves form meridionally elongated upper-level troughs. The southerly wind component along the eastern flank of the breaking waves brings moist air towards the Alps, where the air is forced to rise and precipitation sets in. The breaking waves are in return preceded by upstream Rossby wave trains (precursor RWTs) over the Atlantic and sometimes even the Pacific basin. The extended lifetime of such precursor wave trains may be exploited to improve the forecast of these high-impact weather events on the medium time-scale (5 to 10 day lead time). In contrast, our knowledge of the local synoptic-scale structures triggering heavy precipitation events on the Swiss Alpine north-side and of potential precursor RWTs to these events is limited. The goal of the first part of the proposed project is to fill this gap in knowledge regarding both the local upper-level structures and the upstream precursor waves. We will use a high-resolution observation-based precipitation climatology to identify heavy precipitation events affecting the Swiss Alpine north-side. For these events a detailed statistical and dynamical analysis of the upper-level flow will be conducted using climatologies of synoptic-scale propagating and breaking Rossby waves as well as reanalysis data sets. The second part of the project will use the results from the first part of the project and from previous research projects of the PI to address the question how well heavy precipitation events in Switzerland (both northern and southern Switzerland) are predicted by a state of the art numerical weather prediction (NWP) suite (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) IFS model) for medium-range (5 to 10 days) forecast lead times. The spatial and temporal evolution of forecast errors associated with RWTs including precursor RWTs will be investigated for a three-year period from summer 2008 to summer 2011. This will include the development of novel, sophisticated object-based forecast error measures.A detailed analysis of the processes leading to errors in the medium-range forecast of heavy precipitation events is planed for a small sample of selected heavy precipitation events in collaboration with the group of Michael Riemer (co-PI).
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