model uncertainty; ecological modelling; artificial intelligence; imprecise probabilities; multi model inference
Zaffalon Marco, Corani Giorgio, Mauá Denis (2012), Evaluating credal classifiers by utility-discounted predictive accuracy. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
, 53(8), 1282-1301.
Corani Giorgio, Magli C., Giusti Alessandro, Gianaroli L., Gambardella L.M. (2012), A Bayesian Network model for predicting the outcome of in vitro fertilization, in Proc. of the Sixth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM 2012)
, Granada, Spain.
Antonucci A., Corani G., Gabaglio S. (2012), Active Learning by the Naive Credal Classifier, in Proc. of the Sixth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM 2012)
, Granada, Spain.
Corani G., Antonucci A., De Rosa R. (2012), Compression-based AODE classifiers, in Proc. 20th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI 2012)
, Montpellier, France.
Antonucci A., Cattaneo M.E.G.V., Corani G. (2012), Likelihood-Based Robust Classification with Bayesian Networks, in Greco S., Bouchon-Meunier B., Coletti G., Fedrizzi M., Matarazzo B., Yager R.R. (ed.), Springer, Berlin, 491-500.
Mauà D.D., de Campos C.P. (2012), Anytime marginal map inference, in Proc. of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012)
, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Mignatti A., Corani G., Rizzoli A.E. (2012), Credal model averaging: dealing robustly with model uncertainty on small data sets, in Proc. 6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs 2012)
Mauá D.D., de Campos C.P., Zaffalon M. (2012), Solving limited memory influence diagrams, in Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 44, 97-140.
Mauá D.D., de Campos C.P., Zaffalon M. (2012), Updating credal networks is approximable in polynomial time, in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
, 53(8), 1183-1199.
Antonucci Alessandro, Cattaneo Marco E. G. V., Corani Giorgio (2011), Likelihood-Based Naive Credal Classifier, in Proceedings ISIPTA 2011
, Innsbruck, AustriaSIPTA, Innsbrück, Austria.
Zaffalon Marco, Corani Giorgio, Mauá Denis (2011), Utility-Based Accuracy Measures to Empirically Evaluate Credal Classifiers, in ISIPTA 2011
Corani Giorgio, Antonucci Alessandro, Zaffalon Marco (2011), Bayesian Networks with Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Application to Classification., in Holmes E. D., Lakhmi J.C. (ed.), Springer, Berlin, 49-93.
This proposal builds on a previous SNF project titled "Credal Model Averaging for dealing with uncertainty in environmental models". On the basis of the results obtained in that project, we want to address the problem posed when several competing models reasonably intepret the data and nevertheless lead to different conclusions about the quantities of interest. This is a common problem in environmental modelling, and in those disciplines where the role of uncertainty is most relevant.