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Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate

English title Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate
Applicant Schmutz Werner
Number 130642
Funding scheme Sinergia
Research institution Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und Weltstrahlungszentrum
Institution of higher education Physikal.-Meteorolog. Observatorium Davos - PMOD
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.09.2010 - 31.12.2013
Approved amount 1'296'139.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Meteorology
Astronomy, Astrophysics and Space Sciences

Keywords (12)

Future Solar forcing; Climate; Modelling; Chemistry; Ocean; Sun-Earth connection; Past Solar forcing; future climate; past climate; Sun-Earth-connection; atmospheric chemistry; solar irradiance

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
Lay summary
Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unac-ceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions. During the past several decades the Sun was relatively stable on an unusually high level of activity. There are indi-cations, such as the unusual current solar minimum, that we are approaching the end of the high activity period within the next 10 to 20 years. Such a change could significantly affect future climate, partly offsetting the anticipated anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, this collaborative project aims to address the following two main research questions:1.How did past solar variations affect climate, and how can we use this information to constrain solar-climate modeling? 2.How will a decrease in solar forcing in the next decades affect climate at global and regional scales? To improve our knowledge of the solar contribution to the climate variability, we take advantage of the unique fact that leading groups from the solar and the climate community, working on both, observational and modeling aspects, are located in Switzerland. Within this collaboration of five groups at four Swiss institutes and we will:ofurther develop and apply new data sets of solar forcing factors, like total solar irradiance (TSI), spectral solar irradi-ance, solar energetic particles, for the past;opredict these solar forcing factors until 2100 AD; osimulate the global climate system behavior from 1600 to 2100 with an unprecedented long run and a series of embed-ded multi-year ensemble experiments using a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM); oquantify the solar influence on global climate in the future by evaluating the simulations and using information from past analogs such as the Dalton minimum. The project is timely because we are about to enter a new phase of solar activity and it is expected to significantly increase our knowledge of the solar influence on the climate system on various time scales and to elucidate the Sun's expected role in future climate change.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.02.2013

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity since 1750: 2. Cosmogenic radionuclide reconstructions
Owens M. J., Cliver E., McCracken K. G., Beer J., Barnard L., Lockwood M., Rouillard A., Passos D., Riley P., Usoskin I., Wang Y. -M. (2016), Near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity since 1750: 2. Cosmogenic radionuclide reconstructions, in JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, 121(7), 6064-6074.
Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability
Woollings T., Franzke C., Hodson D. L. R., Dong B., Barnes E. A., Raible C. C., Pinto J. G. (2015), Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability, in Climate Dynamics, 45(1-2), 539-556.
Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth’s Atmosphere
Mironova Irina A., Aplin Karen L., Arnold Frank, Bazilevskaya Galina A., Harrison R. Giles, Krivolutsky Alexei A., Nicoll Keri A., Rozanov Eugene V., Turunen Esa, Usoskin Ilya G. (2015), Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth’s Atmosphere, in Space Science Reviews, 194(1-4), 1-96.
The Annual Cosmic-Radiation Intensities 1391 – 2014; The Annual Heliospheric Magnetic Field Strengths 1391 – 1983, and Identification of Solar Cosmic-Ray Events in the Cosmogenic Record 1800 – 1983
McCracken K. G., Beer J. (2015), The Annual Cosmic-Radiation Intensities 1391 – 2014; The Annual Heliospheric Magnetic Field Strengths 1391 – 1983, and Identification of Solar Cosmic-Ray Events in the Cosmogenic Record 1800 – 1983, in Solar Physics, 290(10), 3051-3069.
Analysis of Different Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstructions and Their Impact on Solar Heating Rates
Thuillier Gérard O., Melo Stella M L, Lean J., Krivova Natalie A., Bolduc C., Fomichev Victor I., Charbonneau Paul, Shapiro Alexander I., Schmutz Werner K., Bolsée David (2014), Analysis of Different Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstructions and Their Impact on Solar Heating Rates, in Solar Physics, 289(4), 1115-1142.
Evaluation of the ECHAM family radiation codes performance in the representation of the solar signal
Sukhodolov Timofei, Rozanov Eugene, Shapiro Alexander, Anet Julien, Cagnazzo Chiara, Peter Tomas, Schmutz Werner (2014), Evaluation of the ECHAM family radiation codes performance in the representation of the solar signal, in Geoscience Model development, 7, 2859-2866.
Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
Suter I., Zech R., Anet J. G., Peter T. (2014), Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, in Climate of the Past, 10(3), 1183-1194.
Impact of solar vs. volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum
Anet Julien, Muthers. Stefan, Rozanov Eugene, Raible Cristoph, Stenke Andrea, Shapiro Alexander, Brönnimann Stefan, Arfeuille. Florian, Brugnara Yuri, Beer Juerg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Schmutz Werner, Peter Thomas (2014), Impact of solar vs. volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, in Climate of the Past, 10, 921-938.
Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology
Muthers Stefan, Anet Julien, Raible Cristoph, Brönnimann Stefan, Rozanov Eugene, Arfeuille Florian, Peter Thomas, Shapiro Alexander, Beer Juerg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Brugnara Yuri, Schmutz W. (2014), Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology, in J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1340-1355.
The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM
Muthers S., Anet J. G., Stenke A., Raible C. C., Rozanov E., Brönnimann S., Peter T., Arfeuille F. X., Shapiro A. I., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2014), The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM, in Geoscientific Model Development, 7(5), 2157-2179.
The Solar Irradiance Spectrum at Solar Activity Minimum Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24
Thuillier Gérard O., Bolsée David, Schmidtke Gerhard L., Foujols Thomas, Nikutowski Bernd, Shapiro Alexander I., Brunner Raimund, Weber M., Erhardt Christian, Hersé Michel, Gillotay Didier, Peetermans William, Decuyper W., Pereira N., Haberreiter Margit, Mandel Holger G., Schmutz W. (2014), The Solar Irradiance Spectrum at Solar Activity Minimum Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24, in Solar Physics, 289(6), 1931-1958.
Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: A new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present
Arfeuille Florian, Weisenstein Debra K., MacK, Rozanov Eugene V., Peter Thomas, Brönnimann Stefan (2014), Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: A new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present, in Climate of the Past, 10(1), 359-375.
A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979
Brönnimann Stefan, Bhend Jonas, Franke Jörg, Flückiger S., Fischer Andreas Marc, Bleisch René, Bodeker Greg E., Haßler Birgit, Rozanov Eugene V., Schraner Martin (2013), A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(18), 9623-9639.
A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo
McCracken Ken G., Beer Jürg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Abreu Jose A. (2013), A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo, in Solar Physics, 286(2), 609-627.
Correlation of spectral solar irradiance with solar activity as measured by VIRGO
Wehrli Ch, Schmutz Werner K., Shapiro Alexander I. (2013), Correlation of spectral solar irradiance with solar activity as measured by VIRGO, in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 556(L3), 1-10.
Cosmogenic radionuclides as an extension of the neutron monitor era into the past: Potential and limitations
Beer Jürg, McCracken Ken G., Abreu Jose A., Heikkilä Ulla E., Steinhilber Friedhelm (2013), Cosmogenic radionuclides as an extension of the neutron monitor era into the past: Potential and limitations, in Space Science Reviews, 176(1-4), 89-100.
Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum
Anet J. G., Muthers S., Rozanov E., Raible C. C., Peter T., Stenke A., Shapiro A. I., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Broennimann S., Arfeuille F., Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2013), Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 13(21), 10951-10967.
Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone
Anet J. G., Rozanov E. V., Muthers S., Peter T., Broennimann S., Arfeuille F., Beer J., Shapiro A. I., Raible C. C., Steinhilber F., Schmutz W. K. (2013), Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, in GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 40(16), 4420-4425.
Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations
Auchmann Renate, Arfeuille Florian, Wegmann Martin, Franke Jörg, Barriendos Mariano, Prohom Marc, Sanchez-Lorenzo Arturo, Bhend Jonas, Wild Martin, Folini Doris, Štěpánek Petr, Brönnimann Stefan (2013), Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations, in Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, 118(16), 9064-9077.
Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: Revised
Calisto M., Usoskin Ilya G., Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: Revised, in Environmental Research Letters, 8(4), 1-10.
Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets
Brugnara Y., Brönnimann Stefan, Luterbacher Jürg, Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(13), 6275-6288.
Lower-tropospheric humidity: Climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ
Läderach Alexander, Raible Christoph Cornelius (2013), Lower-tropospheric humidity: Climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ, in Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 65(1), 1-13.
Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years
Steinhilber Friedhelm, Beer Jürg (2013), Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, in Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics, 118(5), 1861-1867.
Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling
Ermolli I., Matthes K., de Wit T. Dudok, Krivova N. A., Tourpali K., Weber M., Unruh Y. C., Gray L., Langematz U., Pilewskie P., Rozanov E., Schmutz W., Shapiro A., Solanki S. K., Woods T. N. (2013), Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 13(8), 3945-3977.
Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
Zubov V., Rozanov Eugene V., Egorova Tatiana A., Karol Igor L., Schmutz W. (2013), Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(9), 4697-4706.
Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core
Brönnimann Stefan, Mariani I., Schwikowski Margit, Auchmann Renate, Eichler Anja (2013), Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core, in Climate of the Past, 9(4), 2013-2022.
Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies
Franke Jörg, Frank David Charles, Raible Christoph Cornelius, Esper Jan, Brönnimann Stefan (2013), Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, in Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 360-364.
The place of the Sun among the Sun-like stars
Shapiro Alexander I., Schmutz Werner K., Cessateur Gaël, Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), The place of the Sun among the Sun-like stars, in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 552(A114), 1-8.
The role of the solar irradiance variability in the evolution of the middle atmosphere during 2004-2009
Shapiro A. V., Rozanov Eugene V., Shapiro Alexander I., Egorova Tatiana A., Harder Jerald W., Weber Mark C., Smith Anne K C, Schmutz W., Peter T. (2013), The role of the solar irradiance variability in the evolution of the middle atmosphere during 2004-2009, in Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, 118(9), 3781-3793.
The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry-climate model: Description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm
Stenke Andrea, Schraner Martin, Rozanov Eugene V., Egorova Tatiana A., Luo B. P., Peter Thomas (2013), The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry-climate model: Description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm, in Geoscientific Model Development, 6(5), 1407-1427.
9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings
Steinhilber F., Abreu J., Beer J., Brunner I., Christl M., Fischer H., Heikkilä U., Kubik P., Mann M., McCracken K., Miller H., Miyahara H., Oerter H., Wilhelms F. (2012), 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , 109, 5967-5971.
Anomalous 10Be spikes during the Maunder Minimum: Possible evidence for extreme space weather in the heliosphere
Kataoka Ryuho, Miyahara Hiroko, Steinhilber Friedhelm (2012), Anomalous 10Be spikes during the Maunder Minimum: Possible evidence for extreme space weather in the heliosphere, in Space Weather, 10(11), 1-10.
Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data
Judge P., Lockwood G., Radick R., Henry G., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Lindsey C. (2012), Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data, in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 544(A88), 1-6.
Detection of Solar Rotational Variability in the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) 190 – 222 nm Spectral Band
Shapiro A.V., Shapiro A.I., Dominique M., Dammasch I., Wehrli C., Rozanov E., Schmutz W. (2012), Detection of Solar Rotational Variability in the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) 190 – 222 nm Spectral Band, in Solar Physics, 1-13.
Eclipses observed by LYRA - a sensitive tool to test the models for the solar irradiance
Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Dominique M., Shapiro A.V. (2012), Eclipses observed by LYRA - a sensitive tool to test the models for the solar irradiance, in Solar Physics, 171, 1-19.
Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics
Calisto M., Verronen P., Rozanov E., Peter T. (2012), Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics, in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8679-8686.
Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?
Abreu J. A., Beer J., Ferriz-Mas A., McCracken K. G., Steinhilber F. (2012), Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?, in ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, 548, 1-9.
Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity
Rozanov E., Egorova T., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W. (2012), Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity, in Comparative Magnetic Minima, Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 286, Mendoza, ArgentineInternational Astronomical Union, US.
Past and Recent Changes in the NAO
Pinto J., Raible C. (2012), Past and Recent Changes in the NAO, in Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 3, 79-90.
Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-TermForecast in theMiddle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance
Egorova T., Rozanov E., Shapiro A.V., Schmutz W. (2012), Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-TermForecast in theMiddle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance, in International Journal of Geophysics, 2012, 1-7.
Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder
Shapiro A.V., Rozanov E., Shapiro A. I., Wang S., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T. (2012), Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3181-3188.
The influence of the precipitating energetic particles on atmospheric chemistry and climate
Rozanov E., Calisto M., Egorova T., Peter T., Schmutz W. (2012), The influence of the precipitating energetic particles on atmospheric chemistry and climate, in Surveys in Geophysics, 33(3), 483-501.
The solar spectral irradiance as a function of the Mg II index for atmosphere and climate modelling
Thuillier G., DeLand M., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Bolsée D., Melo S. (2012), The solar spectral irradiance as a function of the Mg II index for atmosphere and climate modelling, in Solar Physics, 277(245T), 1-22.
A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing
Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Rozanov E., Schoell M., Haberreiter M., Shapiro A.V., Nyeki S. (2011), A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, in Astron. & Astrophys., 529(A67), 1-8.
Composition changes after the ''Halloween'' solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study
Funke B., Baumgaertner A., Calisto M., Egorova T., Jackman C, Kieser J., Krivolutsky A., López-Puertas M., Marsh D., Reddmann T., Rozanov E., Salmi S.-M., Sinnhuber M., Stiller G., Verronen P., Versick S., von Clarmann T., Vyushkova T., Wieters N., Wissing J.-M. (2011), Composition changes after the ''Halloween'' solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study, in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 11, 9089-9139.
Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics
Calisto M., Usoskin I., Rozanov E., Peter T. (2011), Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics, in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 11, 4547-4556.
Solar turbulent magnetic fields: Non-LTE modeling of the Hanle effect in the C2 molecule
Kleint L., Shapiro A.I., Berdyugina S., Bianda M. (2011), Solar turbulent magnetic fields: Non-LTE modeling of the Hanle effect in the C2 molecule, in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 536(A47), 1-9.
Storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Millennium: reconciling contradictory proxy records of NAO variability
Trouet V., Scourse J., Raible C. (2011), Storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Millennium: reconciling contradictory proxy records of NAO variability, in Global and Planetary Change, 84-85, 48-55.
Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: Possible cause for “Years Without a Summer”
Wegmann Martin, Brönnimann Stefan, Bhend Jonas, Franke Juerg, Folini Doris, Wild Martin, Luterbacher Juerg, Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: Possible cause for “Years Without a Summer”, in Journal of Climate.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
PAGES is a core project of IGBP and is funded by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results

Scientific events



Self-organised

Title Date Place
The Sun and its Role in Climate Change: State of the art (gemeinsam organisiertes Meeting von FUPSOL und PAGES) 05.09.2012 PMOD/WRC, Switzerland

Awards

Title Year
The International Kristian Birkeland medal for Space Weather and Space Climate for outstanding scientific or technological results. 2015

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
153302 Variability of Solar Irradiance and its implications on the terrestrial middle atmosphere 01.04.2014 Project funding (Div. I-III)
143219 Long-term changes of weather extremes in a large ensmble of climate model simulations (EXTRA-LARGE) 01.09.2013 Project funding (Div. I-III)
147659 Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II 01.01.2014 Sinergia
140573 Seismology of the Sun, Variability of Solar Irradiance, and its implications on the terrestrial middle atmosphere 01.04.2012 Project funding (Div. I-III)
147174 Climate and Environmental Physics 01.04.2013 Project funding (Div. I-III)
132520 Swiss Solar Radio Flux Monitor: Technology demonstration and physical understaning of the solar irradiance at radio frequencies 01.09.2011 Project funding (Div. I-III)
138037 Future role of Methane Emissions in the climate System (FuMES) 01.11.2011 Project funding (Div. I-III)
149182 Study of factors influencing ozone layer evolution (SILA) 01.01.2014 Project funding (Div. I-III)
110884 Modelling of the global ozone and climate evolution in the first half of the XXI century 01.09.2005 SCOPES

Abstract

Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unacceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions.During the past several decades the Sun was relatively stable on an unusually high level of activity. There are indications, such as the unusual current solar minimum, that we are approaching the end of the high activity period within the next 10 to 20 years. Such a change could significantly affect future climate, partly offsetting the anticipated anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, this collaborative project aims to address the following two main research questions:1. How did past solar variations affect climate, and how can we use this information to constrain solar-climate modeling? 2. How will a decrease in solar forcing in the next decades affect climate at global and regional scales?To improve our knowledge of the solar contribution to the climate variability, we take advantage of the unique fact that leading groups from the solar and the climate community, working on both, observational and modeling aspects, are located in Switzerland. Within this collaboration of five groups at four Swiss institutes (which have been collaborating successfully in NCCR Climate and within an ETH Polyproject) we propose to:• further develop and apply new data sets of solar forcing factors, like total solar irradiance (TSI), spectral solar irradiance, solar energetic particles, for the past;• predict these solar forcing factors until 2100 AD; • simulate the global climate system behavior from 1600 to 2100 with an unprecedented long run and a series of embedded multi-year ensemble experiments using a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM); • quantify the solar influence on global climate in the future by evaluating the simulations and using information from past analogs such a the Dalton minimum. These goals are very ambitious and, to the best of our knowledge, have never been addressed before with atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-coupling. They can only be reached by joining the available expertise within the consortium from different fields (solar physics, solar irradiance, paleoclimatology, atmospheric chemistry and climate modeling) and by exploiting new information and tools such as: • novel data (10'000 yr decadal solar activity reconstructions, 600 yr annual TSI reconstruction);• a novel, solar irradiance model-based reconstruction technique for spectral solar irradiance;• a novel climate modeling system (capable of simulating solar influences from oceanic energy absorption and UV effects on ozone to the effect of energetic particles and cosmic rays on mesospheric and stratospheric chemistry)The proposal is timely because we are about to enter a new phase of solar activity. The present solar minimum provides new and unprecedented instrumental data, which in combination with long-term reconstructions based on solar activity proxies form the basis for reliable model runs of future solar influence on the terrestrial climate. The project is expected to significantly increase our knowledge of the solar influence on the climate system on various time scales and to elucidate the Sun’s expected role in future climate change.
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