Future Solar forcing; Climate; Modelling; Chemistry; Ocean; Sun-Earth connection; Past Solar forcing; future climate; past climate; Sun-Earth-connection; atmospheric chemistry; solar irradiance
Owens M. J., Cliver E., McCracken K. G., Beer J., Barnard L., Lockwood M., Rouillard A., Passos D., Riley P., Usoskin I., Wang Y. -M. (2016), Near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity since 1750: 2. Cosmogenic radionuclide reconstructions, in JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
, 121(7), 6064-6074.
Woollings T., Franzke C., Hodson D. L. R., Dong B., Barnes E. A., Raible C. C., Pinto J. G. (2015), Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability, in Climate Dynamics
, 45(1-2), 539-556.
Mironova Irina A., Aplin Karen L., Arnold Frank, Bazilevskaya Galina A., Harrison R. Giles, Krivolutsky Alexei A., Nicoll Keri A., Rozanov Eugene V., Turunen Esa, Usoskin Ilya G. (2015), Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth’s Atmosphere, in Space Science Reviews
, 194(1-4), 1-96.
McCracken K. G., Beer J. (2015), The Annual Cosmic-Radiation Intensities 1391 – 2014; The Annual Heliospheric Magnetic Field Strengths 1391 – 1983, and Identification of Solar Cosmic-Ray Events in the Cosmogenic Record 1800 – 1983, in Solar Physics
, 290(10), 3051-3069.
Thuillier Gérard O., Melo Stella M L, Lean J., Krivova Natalie A., Bolduc C., Fomichev Victor I., Charbonneau Paul, Shapiro Alexander I., Schmutz Werner K., Bolsée David (2014), Analysis of Different Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstructions and Their Impact on Solar Heating Rates, in Solar Physics
, 289(4), 1115-1142.
Sukhodolov Timofei, Rozanov Eugene, Shapiro Alexander, Anet Julien, Cagnazzo Chiara, Peter Tomas, Schmutz Werner (2014), Evaluation of the ECHAM family radiation codes performance in the representation of the solar signal, in Geoscience Model development
, 7, 2859-2866.
Suter I., Zech R., Anet J. G., Peter T. (2014), Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, in Climate of the Past
, 10(3), 1183-1194.
Anet Julien, Muthers. Stefan, Rozanov Eugene, Raible Cristoph, Stenke Andrea, Shapiro Alexander, Brönnimann Stefan, Arfeuille. Florian, Brugnara Yuri, Beer Juerg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Schmutz Werner, Peter Thomas (2014), Impact of solar vs. volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, in Climate of the Past
, 10, 921-938.
Muthers Stefan, Anet Julien, Raible Cristoph, Brönnimann Stefan, Rozanov Eugene, Arfeuille Florian, Peter Thomas, Shapiro Alexander, Beer Juerg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Brugnara Yuri, Schmutz W. (2014), Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology, in J. Geophys. Res.
, 119, 1340-1355.
Muthers S., Anet J. G., Stenke A., Raible C. C., Rozanov E., Brönnimann S., Peter T., Arfeuille F. X., Shapiro A. I., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2014), The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM, in Geoscientific Model Development
, 7(5), 2157-2179.
Thuillier Gérard O., Bolsée David, Schmidtke Gerhard L., Foujols Thomas, Nikutowski Bernd, Shapiro Alexander I., Brunner Raimund, Weber M., Erhardt Christian, Hersé Michel, Gillotay Didier, Peetermans William, Decuyper W., Pereira N., Haberreiter Margit, Mandel Holger G., Schmutz W. (2014), The Solar Irradiance Spectrum at Solar Activity Minimum Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24, in Solar Physics
, 289(6), 1931-1958.
Arfeuille Florian, Weisenstein Debra K., MacK, Rozanov Eugene V., Peter Thomas, Brönnimann Stefan (2014), Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: A new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present, in Climate of the Past
, 10(1), 359-375.
Brönnimann Stefan, Bhend Jonas, Franke Jörg, Flückiger S., Fischer Andreas Marc, Bleisch René, Bodeker Greg E., Haßler Birgit, Rozanov Eugene V., Schraner Martin (2013), A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 13(18), 9623-9639.
McCracken Ken G., Beer Jürg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Abreu Jose A. (2013), A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo, in Solar Physics
, 286(2), 609-627.
Wehrli Ch, Schmutz Werner K., Shapiro Alexander I. (2013), Correlation of spectral solar irradiance with solar activity as measured by VIRGO, in Astronomy and Astrophysics
, 556(L3), 1-10.
Beer Jürg, McCracken Ken G., Abreu Jose A., Heikkilä Ulla E., Steinhilber Friedhelm (2013), Cosmogenic radionuclides as an extension of the neutron monitor era into the past: Potential and limitations, in Space Science Reviews
, 176(1-4), 89-100.
Anet J. G., Muthers S., Rozanov E., Raible C. C., Peter T., Stenke A., Shapiro A. I., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Broennimann S., Arfeuille F., Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2013), Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
, 13(21), 10951-10967.
Anet J. G., Rozanov E. V., Muthers S., Peter T., Broennimann S., Arfeuille F., Beer J., Shapiro A. I., Raible C. C., Steinhilber F., Schmutz W. K. (2013), Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, in GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
, 40(16), 4420-4425.
Auchmann Renate, Arfeuille Florian, Wegmann Martin, Franke Jörg, Barriendos Mariano, Prohom Marc, Sanchez-Lorenzo Arturo, Bhend Jonas, Wild Martin, Folini Doris, Štěpánek Petr, Brönnimann Stefan (2013), Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations, in Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres
, 118(16), 9064-9077.
Calisto M., Usoskin Ilya G., Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: Revised, in Environmental Research Letters
, 8(4), 1-10.
Brugnara Y., Brönnimann Stefan, Luterbacher Jürg, Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 13(13), 6275-6288.
Läderach Alexander, Raible Christoph Cornelius (2013), Lower-tropospheric humidity: Climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ, in Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
, 65(1), 1-13.
Steinhilber Friedhelm, Beer Jürg (2013), Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, in Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics
, 118(5), 1861-1867.
Ermolli I., Matthes K., de Wit T. Dudok, Krivova N. A., Tourpali K., Weber M., Unruh Y. C., Gray L., Langematz U., Pilewskie P., Rozanov E., Schmutz W., Shapiro A., Solanki S. K., Woods T. N. (2013), Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
, 13(8), 3945-3977.
Zubov V., Rozanov Eugene V., Egorova Tatiana A., Karol Igor L., Schmutz W. (2013), Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 13(9), 4697-4706.
Brönnimann Stefan, Mariani I., Schwikowski Margit, Auchmann Renate, Eichler Anja (2013), Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core, in Climate of the Past
, 9(4), 2013-2022.
Franke Jörg, Frank David Charles, Raible Christoph Cornelius, Esper Jan, Brönnimann Stefan (2013), Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, in Nature Climate Change
, 3(4), 360-364.
Shapiro Alexander I., Schmutz Werner K., Cessateur Gaël, Rozanov Eugene V. (2013), The place of the Sun among the Sun-like stars, in Astronomy and Astrophysics
, 552(A114), 1-8.
Shapiro A. V., Rozanov Eugene V., Shapiro Alexander I., Egorova Tatiana A., Harder Jerald W., Weber Mark C., Smith Anne K C, Schmutz W., Peter T. (2013), The role of the solar irradiance variability in the evolution of the middle atmosphere during 2004-2009, in Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres
, 118(9), 3781-3793.
Stenke Andrea, Schraner Martin, Rozanov Eugene V., Egorova Tatiana A., Luo B. P., Peter Thomas (2013), The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry-climate model: Description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm, in Geoscientific Model Development
, 6(5), 1407-1427.
Steinhilber F., Abreu J., Beer J., Brunner I., Christl M., Fischer H., Heikkilä U., Kubik P., Mann M., McCracken K., Miller H., Miyahara H., Oerter H., Wilhelms F. (2012), 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
, 109, 5967-5971.
Kataoka Ryuho, Miyahara Hiroko, Steinhilber Friedhelm (2012), Anomalous 10Be spikes during the Maunder Minimum: Possible evidence for extreme space weather in the heliosphere, in Space Weather
, 10(11), 1-10.
Judge P., Lockwood G., Radick R., Henry G., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Lindsey C. (2012), Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction with solar and stellar data, in Astronomy and Astrophysics
, 544(A88), 1-6.
Shapiro A.V., Shapiro A.I., Dominique M., Dammasch I., Wehrli C., Rozanov E., Schmutz W. (2012), Detection of Solar Rotational Variability in the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) 190 – 222 nm Spectral Band, in Solar Physics
Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Dominique M., Shapiro A.V. (2012), Eclipses observed by LYRA - a sensitive tool to test the models for the solar irradiance, in Solar Physics
, 171, 1-19.
Calisto M., Verronen P., Rozanov E., Peter T. (2012), Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics, in Atmos. Chem. Phys.
, 12, 8679-8686.
Abreu J. A., Beer J., Ferriz-Mas A., McCracken K. G., Steinhilber F. (2012), Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?, in ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
, 548, 1-9.
Rozanov E., Egorova T., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W. (2012), Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity, in Comparative Magnetic Minima, Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 286
, Mendoza, ArgentineInternational Astronomical Union, US.
Pinto J., Raible C. (2012), Past and Recent Changes in the NAO, in Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change
, 3, 79-90.
Egorova T., Rozanov E., Shapiro A.V., Schmutz W. (2012), Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-TermForecast in theMiddle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance, in International Journal of Geophysics
, 2012, 1-7.
Shapiro A.V., Rozanov E., Shapiro A. I., Wang S., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T. (2012), Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, in Atmos. Chem. Phys.
, 12, 3181-3188.
Rozanov E., Calisto M., Egorova T., Peter T., Schmutz W. (2012), The influence of the precipitating energetic particles on atmospheric chemistry and climate, in Surveys in Geophysics
, 33(3), 483-501.
Thuillier G., DeLand M., Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Bolsée D., Melo S. (2012), The solar spectral irradiance as a function of the Mg II index for atmosphere and climate modelling, in Solar Physics
, 277(245T), 1-22.
Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Rozanov E., Schoell M., Haberreiter M., Shapiro A.V., Nyeki S. (2011), A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, in Astron. & Astrophys.
, 529(A67), 1-8.
Funke B., Baumgaertner A., Calisto M., Egorova T., Jackman C, Kieser J., Krivolutsky A., López-Puertas M., Marsh D., Reddmann T., Rozanov E., Salmi S.-M., Sinnhuber M., Stiller G., Verronen P., Versick S., von Clarmann T., Vyushkova T., Wieters N., Wissing J.-M. (2011), Composition changes after the ''Halloween'' solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study, in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics
, 11, 9089-9139.
Calisto M., Usoskin I., Rozanov E., Peter T. (2011), Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics, in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics
, 11, 4547-4556.
Kleint L., Shapiro A.I., Berdyugina S., Bianda M. (2011), Solar turbulent magnetic fields: Non-LTE modeling of the Hanle effect in the C2 molecule, in Astronomy and Astrophysics
, 536(A47), 1-9.
Trouet V., Scourse J., Raible C. (2011), Storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Millennium: reconciling contradictory proxy records of NAO variability, in Global and Planetary Change
, 84-85, 48-55.
Wegmann Martin, Brönnimann Stefan, Bhend Jonas, Franke Juerg, Folini Doris, Wild Martin, Luterbacher Juerg, Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: Possible cause for “Years Without a Summer”, in Journal of Climate
Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unacceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions.During the past several decades the Sun was relatively stable on an unusually high level of activity. There are indications, such as the unusual current solar minimum, that we are approaching the end of the high activity period within the next 10 to 20 years. Such a change could significantly affect future climate, partly offsetting the anticipated anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, this collaborative project aims to address the following two main research questions:1. How did past solar variations affect climate, and how can we use this information to constrain solar-climate modeling? 2. How will a decrease in solar forcing in the next decades affect climate at global and regional scales?To improve our knowledge of the solar contribution to the climate variability, we take advantage of the unique fact that leading groups from the solar and the climate community, working on both, observational and modeling aspects, are located in Switzerland. Within this collaboration of five groups at four Swiss institutes (which have been collaborating successfully in NCCR Climate and within an ETH Polyproject) we propose to:• further develop and apply new data sets of solar forcing factors, like total solar irradiance (TSI), spectral solar irradiance, solar energetic particles, for the past;• predict these solar forcing factors until 2100 AD; • simulate the global climate system behavior from 1600 to 2100 with an unprecedented long run and a series of embedded multi-year ensemble experiments using a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM); • quantify the solar influence on global climate in the future by evaluating the simulations and using information from past analogs such a the Dalton minimum. These goals are very ambitious and, to the best of our knowledge, have never been addressed before with atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-coupling. They can only be reached by joining the available expertise within the consortium from different fields (solar physics, solar irradiance, paleoclimatology, atmospheric chemistry and climate modeling) and by exploiting new information and tools such as: • novel data (10'000 yr decadal solar activity reconstructions, 600 yr annual TSI reconstruction);• a novel, solar irradiance model-based reconstruction technique for spectral solar irradiance;• a novel climate modeling system (capable of simulating solar influences from oceanic energy absorption and UV effects on ozone to the effect of energetic particles and cosmic rays on mesospheric and stratospheric chemistry)The proposal is timely because we are about to enter a new phase of solar activity. The present solar minimum provides new and unprecedented instrumental data, which in combination with long-term reconstructions based on solar activity proxies form the basis for reliable model runs of future solar influence on the terrestrial climate. The project is expected to significantly increase our knowledge of the solar influence on the climate system on various time scales and to elucidate the Sun’s expected role in future climate change.