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A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

English title A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy
Applicant Bonadonna Costanza
Number 129997
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Département des sciences de la Terre Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Start/End 01.05.2010 - 30.09.2013
Approved amount 175'820.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Earth Sciences
Geology
Civil Engineering

Keywords (12)

volcanic risk; risk reduction; multi-hazard assessment; modeling; probabilistic analysis; tsunami modeling; tephra modeling; Vulcano; risk; hazard; vulnerability; explosive volcanism

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
Lay summary
Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Despite international strategies to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, the efforts of international, national and local emergency managers are still largely "reactive" (i.e. based on the provision of disaster relief, after a disaster occurs) or "inactive" (i.e. nothing is done), as opposed to "proactive." However, several recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. As such, we have assembled an international and multidisciplinary team of geologists, geophysicists, architects, engineers, economists and Civil Protection professionals to develop a new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk.The new model is based on a comprehensive hazard assessment that includes both event analysis (evaluation of the eruption scenarios and their probability of occurrence) and impact analysis (evaluation of the extent of the threat). The hazard assessment is then combined with the physical vulnerability assessment (evaluation of the built environment) to produce exposure-based risk maps and quantify the potential damage. Such a quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Efficient procedures will be elaborated in collaboration with international and national agencies focused on the development and enforcement of strategies for risk reduction (ISDR, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and Italian Civil Protection). The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will work collaboratively on a major international issue, i.e., how to reduce risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damage. Also, the project is being performed in collaboration with the EU-funded project ENSURE, focused on development of a new framework for the assessment of multi-scale vulnerabilities.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.02.2013

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Chronology and impact of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile
Elissondo Manuela, Baumann Valérie, Bonadonna Costanza, Pistolesi Marco, Cioni Raffaello, Bertagnini Antonella, Biass Sébastien, Herrero Juan-Carlos, Gonzalez Rafael (2016), Chronology and impact of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(3), 675-704.
Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics — A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy
Biass Sébastien, Falcone Jean-Luc, Bonadonna Costanza, Di Traglia Federico, Pistolesi Marco, Rosi Mauro, Lestuzzi Pierino (2016), Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics — A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 325, 1-14.
Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy
Biass Sebastien, Bonadonna Costanza, di Traglia Federico, Pistolesi Marco, Rosi Mauro, Lestuzzi Pierino (2016), Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy, in Bulletin of Volcanology, 78(5), 1.
TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout
Biass Sébastien, Bonadonna Costanza, Connor Laura, Connor Charles (2016), TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout, in Journal of Applied Volcanology, 5(1), 1.
Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand
Thompson Mary Anne, Lindsay Jan M., Sandri Laura, Biass Sébastien, Bonadonna Costanza, Jolly Gill, Marzocchi Warner (2015), Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, in Bulletin of Volcanology, 77(5), 1.
Physical characterization of explosive volcanic eruptions based on tephra deposits: Propagation of uncertainties and sensitivity analysis
Bonadonna Costanza, Biass Sébastien, Costa Antonio (2015), Physical characterization of explosive volcanic eruptions based on tephra deposits: Propagation of uncertainties and sensitivity analysis, in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 296, 80-100.
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment
Biass S., Scaini C., Bonadonna C., Folch A., Smith K., Höskuldsson A. (2014), A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14(8), 2265-2287.
A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact
Scaini C., Biass S., Galderisi A., Bonadonna C., Folch A., Smith K., Höskuldsson A. (2014), A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14(8), 2289-2312.
Acoustic wavefield and Mach wave radiation of flashing arcs in strombolian explosion measured by image luminance Flashing arcs in Strombolian Explosions
Genco Riccardo, Ripepe Maurizio, Marchetti Emanuele, Bonadonna Costanza, Biass Sebastien (2014), Acoustic wavefield and Mach wave radiation of flashing arcs in strombolian explosion measured by image luminance Flashing arcs in Strombolian Explosions, in Geophysical Research Letters, 41(20), 7135-7142.
Growth and erosion: The volcanic geology and morphological evolution of La Fossa (Island of Vulcano, Southern Italy) in the last 1000 years
Di Traglia F., Pistolesi M., Rosi M., Bonadonna C., Fusillo R., Roverato M. (2013), Growth and erosion: The volcanic geology and morphological evolution of La Fossa (Island of Vulcano, Southern Italy) in the last 1000 years, in GEOMORPHOLOGY, 194, 94-107.
TError: towards a better quantification of the uncertainty propagated during the characterization of tephra deposits
Biass Sebastien, Bagheri Gholamhossein, Aeberhard William, Bonadonna Costanza (2013), TError: towards a better quantification of the uncertainty propagated during the characterization of tephra deposits, in Statistics in Volcanology, 1, 1-27.
Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation: The Case of Vulcano Island, Italy
Galderisi Adriana, Bondonna Costanza, Del Monaco Giuseppe, Ferrara Floriana, Menoni Scira, Ceudech A, Biass Sebastien, Frischknecht Corin, Manzella Irene, Minucci Guido, Gregg Christopher (2013), Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation: The Case of Vulcano Island, Italy, in Landslide Science and Practice, 7, 55-64.
Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)
Sandri Laura, Thouret JC, Constantinescu Robert, Biass Sebastien, Tonini R., Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru), in Bulletin of Volcanology.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
University of Naples Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
EPFL Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Cities on Volcanoes 2016 Individual talk The management of a volcanic crisis: didactic exercise with elementary and middle school students of Vulcano Island, Italy 20.11.2016 Puerto Varas, Chile Bonadonna Costanza;
Cities on Volcanoes 2016 Individual talk Volcanic risk assessment and management through the CERG-C international training program at Vulcano Island, Italy 20.11.2016 Puerto Varas, Chile Bonadonna Costanza;
Le Geoscienze a Scuola Talk given at a conference La gestione di un’emergenza vulcanica: esercitazione didattica con la scuola Elementare e Media di Vulcano (Isole Eolie) 16.09.2013 Pisa, Italy Biass Sébastien; Bonadonna Costanza;
Final workshop of "Miavita" European Project Poster Risk assessment associated with tephra accumulation: the example of Vulcano Island, Italy 10.09.2012 Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Bonadonna Costanza; Biass Sébastien;
Cities on Volcanoes 2010 Poster Risk reduction in a volcanic-island setting: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 31.05.2010 Tenerife, Spain Bonadonna Costanza; Simicevic Aleksandra;


Knowledge transfer events



Self-organised

Title Date Place
Come difendersi dal vulcano: la gestione di un’emergenza a Vulcano (Exercise with the kids of the elementary and middle School in Vulcano to raise risk awareness) 17.05.2012 Vulcano, Italy

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Talks/events/exhibitions Nuit de la science Western Switzerland 2016
Talks/events/exhibitions Nuit de la science Western Switzerland 2012

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
188757 A new probabilistic framework for regional volcanic risk assessment including hazards interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales 01.11.2020 Project funding
149285 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.10.2013 Project funding
149285 A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy 01.10.2013 Project funding

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Despite international strategies to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, the efforts of international, national and local emergency managers are still largely “reactive” (i.e. based on the provision of disaster relief, after a disaster occurs) or “inactive” (i.e. nothing is done), as opposed to “proactive.” However, several recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. As such, we have assembled an international and multidisciplinary team of geologists, geophysicists, architects, engineers, economists and Civil Protection professionals to develop a new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk.The new model is based on a comprehensive hazard assessment that includes both event analysis (evaluation of the eruption scenarios and their probability of occurrence) and impact analysis (evaluation of the extent of the threat) (team of geologists and geophysicists). The hazard assessment is then combined with the physical vulnerability assessment (i.e. evaluation of the built environment) to produce exposure-based risk maps and quantify the potential damage (team of geologists, geophysicists, architects and engineers). Such a quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility (team of architects, engineers and economists). Efficient procedures will be elaborated in collaboration with international and national agencies focused on the development and enforcement of strategies for risk reduction (ISDR, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and Italian Civil Protection). The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. This is why Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model. The last 1000 years of activity of La Fossa cone have not yet been characterized in detail and no thorough multi-hazard assessment for the island is yet available. We are planning to identify the main hazards of concern based on a detailed stratigraphic work and characterization of the main volcanic events. We will then determine the probability of occurrence and extent of coverage of the main hazards through the application of dedicated empirical, analytical and numerical models (i.e. tephra fall, ballistic projectiles, pyroclasitc density currents, lahars, gas emissions, tsunamis, volcanogenic earthquakes and lava flows) (compilation of hazard maps). In particular, analytical and numerical models will have to be implemented to describe specific phenomena that are often overlooked in volcanic risk assessment (e.g. long-term ash venting and coastal low-land water invasion due to volcanogenic tsunamis). We will also quantify and classify the built environment through vulnerable building elements for individual hazards that will be used to compile hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. We will collaborate with the Italian Civil Protection authorities to implement the findings into the risk management strategy for Vulcano.The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will work collaboratively on a major international issue, i.e. how to reduce risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damages. Also, the project is being performed in collaboration with the EU-funded project ENSURE, focused on development of a new framework for the assessment of multi-scale vulnerabilities. Broader impacts are that the findings will serve as a platform for developing even more integrated models. Most importantly, the model engages emergency managers through consideration of the feasibility of specific mitigation options, so it has tremendous potential for real life application. Moreover, Professors, graduate students, ISDR professionals and Civil Protection Authorities from multiple universities and agencies in Switzerland and Italy will be directly involved in the project.
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