Project

Discipline

volcanic risk; risk reduction; multi-hazard assessment; modeling; probabilistic analysis; tsunami modeling; tephra modeling; Vulcano; risk; hazard; vulnerability; explosive volcanism

Lead
Lay summary
Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Despite international strategies to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, the efforts of international, national and local emergency managers are still largely "reactive" (i.e. based on the provision of disaster relief, after a disaster occurs) or "inactive" (i.e. nothing is done), as opposed to "proactive." However, several recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. As such, we have assembled an international and multidisciplinary team of geologists, geophysicists, architects, engineers, economists and Civil Protection professionals to develop a new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk.The new model is based on a comprehensive hazard assessment that includes both event analysis (evaluation of the eruption scenarios and their probability of occurrence) and impact analysis (evaluation of the extent of the threat). The hazard assessment is then combined with the physical vulnerability assessment (evaluation of the built environment) to produce exposure-based risk maps and quantify the potential damage. Such a quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Efficient procedures will be elaborated in collaboration with international and national agencies focused on the development and enforcement of strategies for risk reduction (ISDR, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and Italian Civil Protection). The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will work collaboratively on a major international issue, i.e., how to reduce risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damage. Also, the project is being performed in collaboration with the EU-funded project ENSURE, focused on development of a new framework for the assessment of multi-scale vulnerabilities.

Direct link to Lay Summary

Last update: 21.02.2013

Active participation

Self-organised

Communication	Title	Media	Place	Year

Number	Title	Start	Funding scheme

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Despite international strategies to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, the efforts of international, national and local emergency managers are still largely “reactive” (i.e. based on the provision of disaster relief, after a disaster occurs) or “inactive” (i.e. nothing is done), as opposed to “proactive.” However, several recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. As such, we have assembled an international and multidisciplinary team of geologists, geophysicists, architects, engineers, economists and Civil Protection professionals to develop a new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk.The new model is based on a comprehensive hazard assessment that includes both event analysis (evaluation of the eruption scenarios and their probability of occurrence) and impact analysis (evaluation of the extent of the threat) (team of geologists and geophysicists). The hazard assessment is then combined with the physical vulnerability assessment (i.e. evaluation of the built environment) to produce exposure-based risk maps and quantify the potential damage (team of geologists, geophysicists, architects and engineers). Such a quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility (team of architects, engineers and economists). Efficient procedures will be elaborated in collaboration with international and national agencies focused on the development and enforcement of strategies for risk reduction (ISDR, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and Italian Civil Protection). The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. This is why Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model. The last 1000 years of activity of La Fossa cone have not yet been characterized in detail and no thorough multi-hazard assessment for the island is yet available. We are planning to identify the main hazards of concern based on a detailed stratigraphic work and characterization of the main volcanic events. We will then determine the probability of occurrence and extent of coverage of the main hazards through the application of dedicated empirical, analytical and numerical models (i.e. tephra fall, ballistic projectiles, pyroclasitc density currents, lahars, gas emissions, tsunamis, volcanogenic earthquakes and lava flows) (compilation of hazard maps). In particular, analytical and numerical models will have to be implemented to describe specific phenomena that are often overlooked in volcanic risk assessment (e.g. long-term ash venting and coastal low-land water invasion due to volcanogenic tsunamis). We will also quantify and classify the built environment through vulnerable building elements for individual hazards that will be used to compile hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. We will collaborate with the Italian Civil Protection authorities to implement the findings into the risk management strategy for Vulcano.The intellectual merit of this project is that scientists with specific disciplinary skills will work collaboratively on a major international issue, i.e. how to reduce risk in terms of human suffering and monetary damages. Also, the project is being performed in collaboration with the EU-funded project ENSURE, focused on development of a new framework for the assessment of multi-scale vulnerabilities. Broader impacts are that the findings will serve as a platform for developing even more integrated models. Most importantly, the model engages emergency managers through consideration of the feasibility of specific mitigation options, so it has tremendous potential for real life application. Moreover, Professors, graduate students, ISDR professionals and Civil Protection Authorities from multiple universities and agencies in Switzerland and Italy will be directly involved in the project.