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Predicting efficacy and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions in Africa using dynamic models

English title Predicting efficacy and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions in Africa using dynamic models
Applicant Smith Thomas
Number 105994
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Institution of higher education University of Basel - BS
Main discipline Infectious Diseases
Start/End 01.10.2004 - 29.02.2008
Approved amount 298'544.00
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Keywords (6)

malaria; simulation; modeling; insecticide treated bednets; indoor residual spraying; larval control

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
Lay summary
Estimates of long-term effectiveness of interventions against malaria are best made using dynamic models of transmission, which allow for non-linearities, community effects and time delays. Existing malaria transmission models are not adequate for this task because they are not, in general, fitted to field data, and therefore unsuitable for making quantitative predictions.
This project makes use of new dynamic models of malaria transmission and morbidity, fitted to data from field studies of Insecticide Treated Nets, Indoor Residual Spraying, and Anopheles larval control carried out in different epidemiological settings in Africa. Predictions of the long-term epidemiological effects of malaria intervention programmes will be made using these models to simulate a range of intervention scenarios, defined in terms of the health system, demography of the human population, and the malaria control strategy. These intervention scenarios, including integrated control strategies applying multiple interventions simultaneously, will be compared with baseline scenarios based on existing control strategies in order to assess likely effectiveness of the control programme.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.02.2013

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Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
125316 Estimating transition rates for epidemiological models of endemic Plasmodium vivax malaria 01.04.2009 Project funding (Div. I-III)
163473 Movement rates of African malaria vectors and their implications in models of vector control interventions 01.01.2016 Project funding (Div. I-III)
125316 Estimating transition rates for epidemiological models of endemic Plasmodium vivax malaria 01.04.2009 Project funding (Div. I-III)
59380 Dynamics of malaria parasites in areas of high transmission 01.09.2000 Project funding (Div. I-III)
162837 Design of trials for pathogen elimination 01.01.2016 Project funding (Div. I-III)

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