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Roads to 2050: Multi-Agent Simulated Pathways Towards 2050 of Road Vehicle Characterization and Usage

English title Roads to 2050: Multi-Agent Simulated Pathways Towards 2050 of Road Vehicle Characterization and Usage
Applicant de Haan van der Weg Peter
Number 105573
Funding scheme Project funding
Research institution Institut für Umweltentscheidungen D-USYS ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Social geography and ecology
Start/End 01.12.2004 - 31.07.2008
Approved amount 129'135.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Social geography and ecology
Other disciplines of Engineering Sciences

Keywords (11)

200 Watt society; renewables; energy use; road transport; fuel cells; sustainable development; Multi-Agent; System Swiss; Vehicle Fleet 2050; Technology; Breakthrough

Lay Summary (English)

Lead
Lay summary
The project aims at modeling how the Swiss road vehicle fleet and fleetperformance could evolve from 2005 to 2050, that is, how possible pathwaysto diverse 2050 scenarios could look like. A consistent set of 2050 energyscenarios will be taken from literature, supplemented by a 2000-Wattscenario. Looking back in time from a desired future scenario is called“road mapping” or “backcasting”. For this, we formulate time-evolvingstorylines of fuel prices, vehicle propulsion technologies, mobilitydemand, and kilometric performance per vehicle class. A consistent set ofstorylines is called a pathway.
Main research goals are (i) to come up with fully quantified, fullydetailed “pathways” that describe how the selected scenarios for the Swiss2050 road transport system could be reached, and, (ii) methodologically,to model technology breakthroughs necessary for sustainable developmentusing multi-agent systems.
For each of the 2050 energy scenarios under investigation, it will beidentified which sets of storylines will actually lead to this scenario,i.e., which are “pathways towards 2050”. This is non-trivial, and in factis the main challenge of the project. It will be necessary to forecastvehicles that will come to market between 2030 and 2050. The type of fuelthey operate on, their weight, their fuel efficiency.
A Multi-Agent System (MAS) will be designed to simulate the evolution oftoday’s Swiss vehicle fleet towards 2050. To our knowledge, this is thefirst-ever attempt to model the entire road transport system of a country,capable of evolving up to the year 2050, using MAS.
Outcome of the project will be a MAS of Switzerland, consisting of allagents (residential, industrial, commercial, transport and agricultural)necessary to adequately describe the Swiss road transport system from anenergetic perspective. A synthetic population for the year 2005 will begenerated, with the socio-economic properties of the Swiss car-holdingpopulation, and with vehicle ownership and individual vehicle usage inline with the overall statistics. For each 2050 scenario, variouscompatible pathways will be determined, detailed and quantified. Thesewill then be analyzed and compared.
The project will lead to an increased understanding of dominant parametersfor the transformation of the Swiss road transport sector. This allows forthe identification of potential bottleneck situations. The project resultsmay also serve for the period beyond 2030 of new “energy perspectives” forthe road transport sector for the Swiss Federal Office for Energy (SFOE).The application of MAS as an advanced tool to simulate and understandtechnology breakthroughs will also be tested.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.02.2013

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

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