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Flexible estimation of spatio-temporal interaction in a point process model for infectious disease spread

Publikationsart Nicht peer-reviewed
Publikationsform Andere Publikationen (nicht peer-reviewed)
Publikationsdatum 2014
Autor/in Meyer Sebastian, Held Leonhard,
Projekt Statistical methods for spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of infectious diseases
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Andere Publikationen (nicht peer-reviewed)

Buch Flexible estimation of spatio-temporal interaction in a point process model for infectious disease spread
Verlag Statistical Modelling Society, Göttingen Germany

Abstract

Case reports from infectious disease surveillance with registered location and time of infection allow for spatio-temporal point process models of infectious disease spread. An endemic component describes the baseline risk of infection driven by population density as well as temporal and exogenous effects. A second, epidemic component captures interaction between cases and includes covariate effects on the force of infection. Here we investigate nonparametric estimation of spatial as well as temporal interaction using B-splines. Such flexible formulations disclose the distance-decay and time-course of infectivity in a more data-driven manner than previously used parametric models.
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