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New metrics for constraining multiple drivers of hazard and compound hazards

Applicant Zscheischler Jakob
Number 179876
Funding scheme Ambizione
Research institution Klima- und Umweltphysik Physikalisches Institut Universität Bern
Institution of higher education University of Berne - BE
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.11.2018 - 31.10.2022
Approved amount 862'041.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences

Keywords (7)

climate extremes; copulas; multivariate extremes; carbon cycle; climate risk; climate model; compound events

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Klimaextreme wie Dürre und Hitze richten regelmässig beträchtliche Schaden an. Die Schäden sind oft noch um einiges schlimmer, wenn mehrere Extremereignisse zusammenfallen. Für Risikoabschätzungen von solchen Ereignissen werden oft Klimamodelle verwendet. Allerdings ist im Moment unbekannt, wie gut moderne Klimamodelle solche gleichzeitig auftretenden Extremereignisse simulieren können. Wenn Risikoabschätzungen für solche Ereignisse ungenau oder verzerrt sind, kann das zu falschen Anpassungsstrategien führen.
Lay summary

Inhalt und Ziel des Forschungsprojekts

Dieses Projekt wird neue statistische Masse entwickeln, um zu evaluieren, wie gut Klimamodelle kombinierte Extremereignisse und andere Wetterrisiken simulieren können. Hierbei werden wir den Fokus auf folgende Ereignisse legen: a) gleichzeitiges Auftreten von Dürre und Hitze, gleichzeitiges Auftreten von Starkwind und Extremniederschlag, c) Hitzestress und d) Feuerrisiko. Hitzestress und Feuerrisiko lassen sich aus der Kombination von Temperatur und relativer Feuchte abschätzen. Die neuen Masse werden dann verwendet, um Unsicherheiten in Zukunftsprognosen von Wetterrisiken zu reduzieren.

Wissenschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Kontext des Forschungsprojekts

Unsere Arbeit wird einen wichtigen Beitrag zu einer verbesserten Abschätzung von Klimarisiken durch extreme Wetterereignisse leisten. Das ist insbesondere relevant für Zukunftsplaner in vielen Bereichen der Politik, um mögliche Anpassungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Es ist aber auch relevant für einzelne Industriezweige wie zum Beispiel Wasserversorger oder Versicherungsunternehmen.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 20.09.2018

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events
Ridder Nina N., Pitman Andy J., Westra Seth, Ukkola Anna, Hong X. Do, Bador Margot, Hirsch Annette L., Evans Jason P., Di Luca Alejandro, Zscheischler Jakob (2020), Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events, in Nature Communications, 11(1), 5956-5956.
Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas
Ribeiro Andreia Filipa Silva, Russo Ana, Gouveia Célia Marina, Páscoa Patrícia, Zscheischler Jakob (2020), Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas, in Biogeosciences, 17(19), 4815-4830.
The record-breaking compound hot and dry 2018 growing season in Germany
Zscheischler Jakob, Fischer Erich M. (2020), The record-breaking compound hot and dry 2018 growing season in Germany, in Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100270-100270.
A typology of compound weather and climate events
Zscheischler Jakob, Martius Olivia, Westra Seth, Bevacqua Emanuele, Raymond Colin, Horton Radley M., van den Hurk Bart, AghaKouchak Amir, Jézéquel Aglaé, Mahecha Miguel D., Maraun Douglas, Ramos Alexandre M., Ridder Nina N., Thiery Wim, Vignotto Edoardo (2020), A typology of compound weather and climate events, in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, -.
Understanding and managing connected extreme events
Raymond Colin, Horton Radley M., Zscheischler Jakob, Martius Olivia, AghaKouchak Amir, Balch Jennifer, Bowen Steven G., Camargo Suzana J., Hess Jeremy, Kornhuber Kai, Oppenheimer Michael, Ruane Alex C., Wahl Thomas, White Kathleen (2020), Understanding and managing connected extreme events, in Nature Climate Change, -.
Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway
Poschlod Benjamin, Zscheischler Jakob, Sillmann Jana, Wood Raul R., Ludwig Ralf (2020), Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway, in Weather and Climate Extremes, 100253-100253.
Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters
Tschumi Elisabeth, Zscheischler Jakob (2020), Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters, in Climatic Change, 158(3-4), 593-609.
Rainfall‐manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: where do we stand?
Paschalis Athanasios, Fatichi Simone, Zscheischler Jakob, Ciais Philippe, Bahn Michael, Boysen Lena, Chang Jinfeng, De Kauwe Martin, Estiarte Marc, Goll Daniel, Hanson Paul J., Harper Anna B., Hou Enqing, Kigel Jaime, Knapp Alan K., Larsen Klaus Steenberg, Li Wei, Lienert Sebastian, Luo Yiqi, Meir Patrick, Nabel Julia E.M.S., Ogaya Romà, Parolari Anthony J, Peng Changhui, et al. (2020), Rainfall‐manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: where do we stand?, in Global Change Biology, gcb.15024-gcb.15024.
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
Runge Jakob, Bathiany Sebastian, Bollt Erik, Camps-Valls Gustau, Coumou Dim, Deyle Ethan, Glymour Clark, Kretschmer Marlene, Mahecha Miguel D., Muñoz-Marí Jordi, van Nes Egbert H., Peters Jonas, Quax Rick, Reichstein Markus, Scheffer Marten, Schölkopf Bernhard, Spirtes Peter, Sugihara George, Sun Jie, Zhang Kun, Zscheischler Jakob (2019), Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences, in Nature Communications, 10(1), 2553-2553.
Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change
VogelMartha, ZscheischlerJakob, WartenburgerRichard, DeeDick, SeneviratneSonia (2019), Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change, in Earth's Future, 7, 693-703.
Strong but Intermittent Spatial Covariations in Tropical Land Temperature
Yang Hui, Piao Shilong, Huntingford Chris, Peng Shushi, Ciais Philippe, Chen Anping, Zhou Guiyun, Wang Xuhui, Gao Mengdi, Zscheischler Jakob (2019), Strong but Intermittent Spatial Covariations in Tropical Land Temperature, in Geophysical Research Letters, 46(1), 356-364.
The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
Zscheischler Jakob, Fischer Erich M., Lange Stefan (2019), The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates, in Earth System Dynamics, 10(1), 31-43.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE), France France (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Chair of Statistics, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Mobiliar Lab für Naturrisiken, Geographisches Institut, Universität Bern Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Klima und Umweltphysik (KUP), Universität Bern Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
The Fourth Northern European Conference on Emergency and Disaster Studies Talk given at a conference The challenge of compound events: From climate extremes to extreme impacts 10.06.2019 Uppsala, Sweden Zscheischler Jakob;
Workshop on Correlated Extremes Talk given at a conference Keynote lecture 29.05.2019 New York, United States of America Zscheischler Jakob;
European Geosciences Union Poster Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters 07.04.2019 Vienna, Austria Tschumi Elisabeth;


Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
186282 Risk assessment of critical ecological thresholds in Amazonia and Cerrado 01.12.2020 Bilateral programmes
189908 Machine learning for detecting compound climate drivers of extreme impacts 01.05.2020 COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)

Abstract

Climate-related hazards such as heat waves, droughts, and floods can lead to devastating impacts on human societies and ecosystems. The impacts are often particularly severe when several hazards occur at the same time. Many hazards result from a combination of physical processes that interact on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Climate change will alter many of these processes and their interactions, making projections of future hazards based on single driver analyses difficult. Impact studies that consider only one climatic driver usually fail to assess the full extent of the impacts associated with multiple dependent drivers. Furthermore, it is not clear whether current climate models can capture major changes in risk associated with climate-related hazards. Existing modelling approaches used to assess risk may therefore lead to serious mal-adaptation. This project will (i) develop new metrics to evaluate climate models with respect to multivariate relationships, extremes, and compound hazards, (ii) constrain model ensembles with observations to improve projections of hazards and compound hazards, and (iii) relate hazard probabilities with impacts to quantify the importance of climate in comparison to vulnerability and exposure for high-impact climate events. The project will focus on the compound hazards a) drought and heat, b) wind and precipitation extremes, as well as on the hazards c) human heat stress and d) fire risk, which both can be expressed in terms of temperature and relative humidity. As a data basis for the development of new metrics, the project will largely rely on pre-industrial control simulations of climate models. These long simulations do not contain trends and other non-stationarities associated with human-induced climate change and thus provide an excellent environment to develop new robust statistical approaches. Subsequently, the new metrics will be used to constrain hazards in present-day and future simulations from climate model ensembles with observation-based gridded climate and reanalysis datasets. Furthermore, estimated hazard probabilities will be confronted with modeled and observed impacts such as extremely anomalous carbon fluxes, extremely low crop yields, human mortality, damaged infrastructure, and large wildfires. We will further conduct experiments with a dynamical vegetation model to study the influence of different drought-heat signatures on carbon dynamics such as interannual variability of carbon fluxes and cumulative carbon uptake. The newly developed metrics will serve a wide community of Earth system modelers for better evaluating process-based models against multivariate dependencies that are critical for large impacts. These metrics will complement and extend established model evaluation systems. Improved projections of hazards, in particular compound hazards, are highly relevant for assessing future risks associated with climate extremes. Comparing hazard probabilities with actual impacts will put the contribution of climate drivers into perspective and reveal in which regions and for which hazards other non-climatic factors related to vulnerability and exposure play an important role. These insights are critical for a broad community including risk managers, decision-makers and private businesses such as the insurance sector.
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