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Risk Governance of Deep Geothermal and Hydro Energy

English title Risk Governance of Deep Geothermal and Hydro Energy
Applicant Wiemer Stefan
Number 153931
Funding scheme NRP 70 Energy Turnaround
Research institution Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Geophysics
Start/End 01.11.2014 - 30.09.2018
Approved amount 939'024.00
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All Disciplines (6)

Discipline
Geophysics
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences
Hydrology, Limnology, Glaciology
Civil Engineering
Geology
Sociology

Keywords (6)

modelling; risk perception; risk governance; vulnerability analysis; risk assessment; risk communication

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Riskomanagement von Tiefen Geothermie- und Wasserkraftprojekten Unter den einheimischen, klimafreundlichen erneuerbaren Energien verfügt die Tiefe Geothermie sowie der weitere Ausbau der Wasserkraft in der Schweiz über ein grosses theoretisches Potential. Die aktuelle Energiestrategie des Bundesrates verlangt, dass die technische Machbarkeit der Tiefen Geothermie bis zum Jahre 2020 untersucht werden muss, um im Energiemix der Schweiz eine wesentliche Rolle spielen zu können.
Lay summary

Zur weiteren Entwicklung einheimischer erneuerbarer Energiequellen  besteht  speziell im Bereich des Risikomanagements Bedarf für anwendungsorientierte Forschung. Der potentiell grosse volkswirtschaftliche Nutzen der Tiefen Geothermie gelangt nur zum Zuge, wenn geeignete Methoden vorliegen, um die mit der Tiefen Geothermie verbundenen Erdbebenrisiken zu evaluieren und zu kontrollieren und auf ein für die Bevölkerung akzeptables Mass zu reduzieren.  Im Bereich des Ausbaues der Wasserkraft liegen die Risiken neben Erdbeben und den klassischen gravitativen Naturgefahren auch bei der Beurteilung des Einflusses von Veränderungen in den Gefährdungsbildern und Nutzungsprofile als folge des Klimawandel.

Unser Forschungsprojekt bringt ein interdisziplinäres Team von Naturwissenschaftlern, Ingenieuren und Sozialwissenschaftlern mit dem Ziel zusammen, eine gesamthafte und nachhaltige Herangehensweise an das Risikomanagement zu fördern. Dabei soll insbesondere die Vergleichbarkeit von Risiken über Technologiegrenzen hinweg ermöglicht werden, aber auch Sekundärrisiken von  Technologien  (z. B., eine Nuklearkatastrophe in Japan beeinflusst den gesamt Schweizer Energiemix) und Verkettung envon Risiken untersucht werden. Unser Projekt ist in sechs Arbeitspakete unterteilt, in denen jeweils ein Doktorand angestellt sein wird.

Unsere Arbeiten sind in das NFP70 Rahmenprojekt zur Strombereitstellung eingebettet und eng mit dem Forschungskompetenzzentrum zur gleichen Thematik verknüpft, dem Swiss Competence Centers for Energy Research, Supply of Electricity (SCCER-SoE; www.sccer-soe.ch). Unser Ziel besteht darin, mit unserer Forschung einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur umweltverträglichen Stromversorgung der Schweiz der Zukunft zu leisten.


 

 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 07.11.2014

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Application of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling for risk assessment of accidents at hydropower dams
Kalinina Anna, Spada Matteo, Burgherr Peter (2018), Application of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling for risk assessment of accidents at hydropower dams, in Safety Science, 110, 164-177.
Charting the course: A possible route to a fully renewable Swiss power system
Bartlett Stuart, Dujardin Jérôme, Kahl Annelen, Kruyt Bert, Manso Pedro, Lehning Michael (2018), Charting the course: A possible route to a fully renewable Swiss power system, in Energy, 163, 942-955.
Origin of the power-law exponent in the landslide frequency-size distribution
Jafarimanesh Ahoura, Mignan Arnaud, Danciu Laurentiu (2018), Origin of the power-law exponent in the landslide frequency-size distribution, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-28.
Seismic Resilience of Water Distribution and Cellular Communication Systems after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
Didier Max, Baumberger Salome, Tobler Roman, Esposito Simona, Ghosh Siddhartha, Stojadinovic Bozidar (2018), Seismic Resilience of Water Distribution and Cellular Communication Systems after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake, in Journal of Structural Engineering, 144(6), 04018043-04018043.
Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale GasCommunicating LPHC Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence
Knoblauch Theresa A. K., Stauffacher Michael, Trutnevyte Evelina (2018), Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale GasCommunicating LPHC Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence, in Risk Analysis, 38(4), 694-709.
Improving Post-Earthquake Building Safety Evaluation using the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, Earthquake Rapid Visual Damage Assessment Data
Didier Max, Baumberger Salome, Tobler Roman, Esposito Simona, Ghosh Siddhartha, Stojadinovic Bozidar (2017), Improving Post-Earthquake Building Safety Evaluation using the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, Earthquake Rapid Visual Damage Assessment Data, in Earthquake Spectra, 33(S1), S415-S434.
A compositional demand/supply framework to quantify the resilience of civil infrastructure systems (Re-CoDeS)
Didier Max, Broccardo Marco, Esposito Simona, Stojadinovic Bozidar (2017), A compositional demand/supply framework to quantify the resilience of civil infrastructure systems (Re-CoDeS), in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 3(2), 86-102.
Interplay between photovoltaic, wind energy and storage hydropower in a fully renewable Switzerland
Dujardin Jérôme, Kahl Annelen, Kruyt Bert, Bartlett Stuart, Lehning Michael (2017), Interplay between photovoltaic, wind energy and storage hydropower in a fully renewable Switzerland, in Energy, 135, 513-525.
Potential contributions of wind power to a stable and highly renewable Swiss power supply
Kruyt Bert, Lehning Michael, Kahl Annelen (2017), Potential contributions of wind power to a stable and highly renewable Swiss power supply, in Applied Energy, 192, 1-11.
Assessment of Post-Disaster Community Infrastructure Services Demand using Bayesian Networks
DidierMax (2017), Assessment of Post-Disaster Community Infrastructure Services Demand using Bayesian Networks, in 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Chile.
Probabilistic Seismic Resilience Analysis of an Electric Power Supply System using the Re-CoDeS Resilience Quantification Framework
DidierMax (2017), Probabilistic Seismic Resilience Analysis of an Electric Power Supply System using the Re-CoDeS Resilience Quantification Framework, in 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, Vienna, Austria.
Quantification of Non-Structural Damage in Unreinforced Masonry Walls Induced by Geothermal Reservoir Exploration using Quasi-Static Cyclic Tests
DidierMax (2017), Quantification of Non-Structural Damage in Unreinforced Masonry Walls Induced by Geothermal Reservoir Exploration using Quasi-Static Cyclic Tests, in 13th Canadian Masonry Symposium, 13th Canadian Masonry Symposium, Halifax, Canada.
Reliable Averages and Risky Extremes – Analysis of Spatio-temporal Variability in solar Irradiance and Persistent Cloud Cover Patterns Over Switzerland
Kahl Annelen, Blanchet Juliette, Kruyt Bert, Lehning Michael (2016), Reliable Averages and Risky Extremes – Analysis of Spatio-temporal Variability in solar Irradiance and Persistent Cloud Cover Patterns Over Switzerland, in Energy Procedia, 97, 124-132.
Landslide triggering modeling in Switzerland
JafarimaneshAhoura (2016), Landslide triggering modeling in Switzerland, in ICONHIC, ICONHIC, Greece.
Vulnerability of the Nepalese Building Stock during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
DidierMax (2016), Vulnerability of the Nepalese Building Stock during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake, in Nepal Engineers’ Association Technical Journal Special Issue on Gorkha Earthquake 2015, 1-11.
Post-Earthquake Recovery of a Community and its Power Supply System
Didier Max (2015), Post-Earthquake Recovery of a Community and its Power Supply System, in 5th ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engin, Crete Island, Greece.
Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience Model for Electric Power Supply System under Seismic Hazard
Didier Max (2015), Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience Model for Electric Power Supply System under Seismic Hazard, in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Ci, Vancouver, Canada.
Risks and Reliability in a fully renewable Switzerland
Kruyt Bert (2015), Risks and Reliability in a fully renewable Switzerland, in Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - ESREL 2015, Zurich.
Study of Seismic Recovery and Resilience of Electric Power Supply System
Didier Max (2015), Study of Seismic Recovery and Resilience of Electric Power Supply System, in Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, Zurich.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
SCCER-SoE Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
11th US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering Talk given at a conference Seismic Resilience of Interdependent Civil Infrastructure System 25.06.2018 Los Angeles, United States of America Didier Max; Stojadinovic Bozidar;
16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering Talk given at a conference Seismic Resilience of a Water Distribution Network 18.06.2018 Thessaloniki, Greece Didier Max; Stojadinovic Bozidar;
10th Australasian Masonry Conference Talk given at a conference Damage quantification in plastered unreinforced masonry walls using digital image correlation 11.02.2018 Sydney, Australia Stojadinovic Bozidar; Didier Max;
2nd International Workshop on Modelling of Physical, Economic and Social Systems Talk given at a conference Resilience-Related Configurations of Civil Infrastructure and Community Systems 04.12.2017 Ispra, Italy Stojadinovic Bozidar; Didier Max;
12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability Talk given at a conference Probabilistic Seismic Resilience Analysis of an Electric Power Supply System using the Re-CoDeS Resilience Quantification Framework 06.08.2017 Vienna, Austria Didier Max; Stauffacher Michael;
13th Canadian Masonry Symposium Talk given at a conference Quantification of Non-Structural Damage in Unreinforced Masonry Walls Induced by Geothermal Reservoir Exploration using Quasi-Static Cyclic Tests 04.06.2017 Halifax, Canada Didier Max; Stojadinovic Bozidar;
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Talk given at a conference Seismic Resilience of the Nepalese Power Supply System during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake 09.01.2017 Santiago de Chile, Chile Stojadinovic Bozidar; Didier Max;
16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Talk given at a conference Assessment of Post-Disaster Community Infrastructure Services Demand using Bayesian Networks 09.01.2017 Santiago de Chile, Chile Didier Max; Stojadinovic Bozidar;
SCCER-SoE/NRP70 PhD School 2016 Poster Various 18.10.2016 Leukerbad, Switzerland Kalinina Anna; Didier Max; Jafari Manesh Ahoura; Knoblauch Theresa; Kruyt Albertus Christiaan; Herrmann Marcus;
PMC 2016 Talk given at a conference Modelling Post-Earthquake Recovery and Resilience of the Electric Power Supply System in Nepal 10.05.2016 Nashville, United States of America Didier Max;
EERI 68th Annual Meeting Poster Seismic Resilience of the Electric Power Supply System during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake 05.04.2016 San Francisco, United States of America Didier Max;
Idrim 2015 Talk given at a conference Seismic Resilience of a Community and its Critical Infrastructure: A Review 28.10.2015 Delhi, India Didier Max;
SCCER-SoE/NRP 70 PhD school Poster Various 13.10.2015 Grimsel, Switzerland Knoblauch Theresa; Didier Max; Kruyt Albertus Christiaan; Jafari Manesh Ahoura; Kalinina Anna; Herrmann Marcus;
SCCER SoE annual conference Poster Preliminary results from the PhDs of the NRP70 risk governance project 21.09.2015 Neuchatel, Switzerland Kalinina Anna; Herrmann Marcus; Knoblauch Theresa; Didier Max; Jafari Manesh Ahoura; Kruyt Albertus Christiaan;
Multi-risk inter-project event (INFRARISK - NRP70) Individual talk GenMR framework and hazard interactions in Switzerland 13.08.2015 Zurich, Switzerland Jafari Manesh Ahoura;
SCCER SoE Risk Team All-hand meeting Individual talk Progress from the PhDs of the NRP70 risk governance project 28.05.2015 Davos, Switzerland Jafari Manesh Ahoura; Stojadinovic Bozidar; Stauffacher Michael; Knoblauch Theresa; Herrmann Marcus; Wiemer Stefan; Kruyt Albertus Christiaan; Kalinina Anna; Lehning Michael; Didier Max; Burgherr Peter;
Compdyn 2015 Talk given at a conference Post-Earthquake Recovery of a Community and its Electrical Power Supply System 25.05.2015 Crete, Greece Didier Max;


Knowledge transfer events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Tiefengeothermie: Das Projekt in St. Gallen Workshop 11.06.2015 St. Gallen, Switzerland


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) How to communicate risks of renewable energies? NFP70 International 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
160563 Risk governance of electricity portfolios (RIGOROuS): Cross-technology and spatial tradeoffs of multiple risks 01.07.2015 Ambizione Energy
157772 HighSTEPS : HighStrainTEmperaturePressureSpeed 01.10.2015 R'EQUIP
160555 To induce or not to induce: an open problem. Study on injection-induced seismicity for GeoEnergy applications, from lab to field scale 01.09.2015 Ambizione Energy
170766 Physical constraints on natural and induced earthquakes using innovative lab-scale experiments: The LabQuake Machine 01.06.2017 R'EQUIP

Abstract

The exploitation of underground energy resources as well as the use and expansion of hydropower, are, like all energy technologies, not risk free. How these risks potentially impact our society, is, of course, dependent on the vulnerabilities of our buildings, our infrastructure, and our communities. Moving towards a safe and more resilient energy sector requires tools for hazard, risk and vulnerability assessment that are closely integrated with societal risk perception, related communication and public engagement strategies, because perceived risk actually can, and does impact energy source design and risk mitigation strategies. A comprehensive risk governance framework, where hazard, risk and vulnerability assessment, risk perception and risk communication are integrated, is necessary. This project aims to develop such risk governance framework by integrating a set of various risk assessments (seismic hazards, risks related to geothermal energy, risk related to hydro-energy, accidental risks), vulnerability analysis, and related risk perceptions in a dynamic way to account for developments that affect buildings, infrastructure systems and energy sources over their lifetime. This framework will enable design and deployment of a comprehensive risk communication strategy for the development of deep geothermal and new hydropower energy sources.
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