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HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

English title HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues
Applicant Zappa Massimiliano
Number 153929
Funding scheme NRP 70 Energy Turnaround
Research institution Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft WSL
Institution of higher education Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research - WSL
Main discipline Hydrology, Limnology, Glaciology
Start/End 01.02.2015 - 31.07.2018
Approved amount 249'985.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Hydrology, Limnology, Glaciology
Meteorology
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy

Keywords (7)

Hydrology; Hydropower; Climatology; Water_resources; Extended_Range_Predictions; Uncertainty; Meteorology

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
HEPS4Power untersucht inwieweit hydrometeorologische Vohersagesysteme über erweiterte Vorhersagezeiträume (Monate und Saisonen) gewinnbringend bei der Nutzung der Wasserkraft eingesetzt werden können.
Lay summary

Im Rahmen des HEPS4Power Projektes soll untersucht werden inwieweit hydrometeorologische Vohersagesysteme über erweiterte Vorhersagezeiträume (Monate und Saisonen) gewinnbringend bei der Nutzung der Wasserkraft eingesetzt werden können. Dazu sollen in enger Zusammenarbeit vom WSL mit der MeteoSchweiz meteorologische Ensemble-Vorhersagen für die hydrologische Verwendbarkeit adaptiert werden. Diese Ensemble bestehen aus mehreren gleichwahrscheinlichen meteorologischen Vorhersagen (wie Temperatur und Niederschlag), welche sich durch Berücksichtigung der Unsicherheiten in den Startbedingungen des Vorhersagemodells ergeben. Diese Adaptierung ist notwendig, da die zugrundeliegenden meteorologischen und hydrologischen Modelle sehr unterschiedliche räumliche und zeitliche Auflösungen besitzen, welche nun durch geeignete und eventuell auch neu zu entwickelnde statistische Verfahren aneinander angenähert werden sollen. Dadurch sollen auch  Zufluss-Vorhersagen für kleinste Regionen (z.B. in einem Einzugsgebiet eines Wasserkraftwerkes) zuverlässig erstellt und Unsicherheiten und Fehler minimiert werden können. Darauf aufbauend soll die Integration von mehreren hydrologischen Modellen in dieses Vorhersagesystem in komplexen, alpinen Gebieten getestet und die damit erzielten Informationsgewinne bestimmt werden. Schliesslich soll dieses System bestehend aus adaptierten Ensemble Vorhersagen über erweiterte Zeiträume und unter Anwendung verschiedener hydrologischer Modell dazu verwendet werden eine Verbesserung der  Vorhersagegüte durch die Einbindung von zusätzlichen Informationen, wie von Schneemessungen,  zu quantifizieren. Insgesamt soll dieses Projekt dazu beitragen Methoden und Werkzeuge zu entwickeln um die Wasserkraftnutzung nachhaltig zu verbessern. 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 23.10.2014

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach
Monhart Samuel, Zappa Massimiliano, Spirig Christoph, Schär Christoph, Bogner Konrad (2019), Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach, in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23(1), 493-513.
Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small-and medium-size mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach
Monhart Samuel, Zappa Massimiliano, Spirig Christoph, Schär Christoph, Bogner Konrad (2018), Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small-and medium-size mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach, in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-32.
Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations
Monhart S., Spirig C., Bhend J., Bogner K., Schär C., Liniger M. A. (2018), Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(15), 7999-8016.
Skill of Hydrological Extended Range Forecasts for Water Resources Management in Switzerland
Bogner Konrad, Liechti Katharina, Bernhard Luzi, Monhart Samuel, Zappa Massimiliano (2018), Skill of Hydrological Extended Range Forecasts for Water Resources Management in Switzerland, in Water Resources Management, 32(3), 969-984.
Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods.
Bogner Konrad, Liechti Katharina, Zappa Massimiliano (2016), Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods., in Water, 8(4), 115.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
e-dric (Project Team) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (External) Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Research Infrastructure
MeteoSchweiz, Federal Institute of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss (Project Team) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Axpo Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences IACETH (External) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
ETH Chair of Hydrology and Water Resources Management Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
WSL - Research unit "Mountain Hydrology and Torrents" (Project Team) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
SCCER Network (External) Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Alpiq Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Seminaire Université Grenoble Alpes Individual talk Sub-seasonal > hydrological ensemble predictions in Switzerland. 21.09.2018 Grenoble, France Zappa Massimiliano;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2018 Poster Sub-seasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium size mountainous catch - ments: Benefits of the NWP approach 13.09.2018 Horw, Switzerland Monhart Samuel; Spirig Christoph; Zappa Massimiliano;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2018 Poster Preliminary discussion on the use of raw monthly hydrological forecasts during the summer 2018 drought in Switzerland 13.09.2018 Horw, Switzerland Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2018 Poster HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues 13.09.2018 Horw, Switzerland Zappa Massimiliano; Spirig Christoph; Gerber Philippe; Jordan Frédéric; Monhart Samuel;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2018 Poster Improved alpine hydropower operation by forecast based optimization 13.09.2018 Horw, Switzerland Zappa Massimiliano; Monhart Samuel;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017 Talk given at a conference What should I do, if possible, to top ESP sub-seasonal streamflow predictions in Swiss alpine catchments? 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Spirig Christoph; Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 Talk given at a conference What should I do, if possible, to top ESP sub-seasonal streamflow predictions in Swiss alpine catchments? 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Monhart Samuel; Spirig Christoph; Zappa Massimiliano;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 Poster How different de-biasing techniques contribute to improve forecast quality and value for hydropower operations 08.04.2018 Vienna, Austria Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;
HEPEX Workshop 2018, Talk given at a conference Hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in Switzerland: using streamflow forecasts to improve hydropower reservoir operations 06.02.2018 Melbourne, Australia Zappa Massimiliano; Monhart Samuel;
HEPEX Workshop 2018, Poster The Influence of Pre- And Post- Processing On The Forecast Performance In Different Alpine Catchments. 06.02.2018 Melbourne, Australia Spirig Christoph; Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2017 Poster Pre- and Post-processing of an Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System 14.09.2017 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Zappa Massimiliano; Monhart Samuel;
IAHS Scientific Assembly 2017, Talk given at a conference Post-processing of an Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System for Alpine Catchments in Switzerland. 10.07.2017 Port Elizabeth, South Africa Spirig Christoph; Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017 Talk given at a conference Bias correction and verification of extended-range ECMWF forecasts against ground observations in Europe 23.04.2017 Vienna, Austria Zappa Massimiliano; Spirig Christoph; Liniger Mark;
EGU General Assembly 2016 Poster Verification of ECMWF monthly forecasts for the use in hydrological predictions 17.04.2016 Vienna, Austria Spirig Christoph; Liniger Mark; Monhart Samuel;
HEPEX workshop on seasonal hydrological forecasting Poster DOWNSCALING OF EXTENDED-RANGE AND SEASONAL METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTIONS FOR USE IN AN ENSEMBLE HYROMETEOROLOGIC FORECAST CHAIN 21.09.2015 Norrköping, Sweden Monhart Samuel; Spirig Christoph; Liniger Mark;
SCCER-SoE Annual Conference 2015 Poster HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues 10.09.2015 Neuchatel, Switzerland Spirig Christoph; Liniger Mark; Zappa Massimiliano; Jordan Frédéric; Monhart Samuel;
Swiss Climate Summer School Poster HEPS4Power – Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues 23.08.2015 Ascona, Switzerland Jordan Frédéric; Liniger Mark; Spirig Christoph; Monhart Samuel; Zappa Massimiliano;


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Trockenheit: Pilotbetrieb einer 30-Tage-Vorhersage deutet auf leichte Entspannung hin SRF1, NZZ und viele andere German-speaking Switzerland 2018

Abstract

In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps.The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. We think that operational extended-range hydro meteorological predictions have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). All the projects partners have running collaborations with partners from the hydropower sector. Most notably we can cite “Elettricità della Svizzera Italiana” (WSL), Alpiq (edric.ch) and “Groupe E” (edric.ch). We are sure we can create a positive dialog within this specific value chain and deliver after the project the proof that hydropower production can profit from hydro meteorological forecasts.The PhD student will investigate how such forecasts might be issued, refined and published for providing the hydropower sector with information (abundance/scarcity/drought) for decision making. The list of possible applications includes: (a) predictions of inflows (b) reduction/minimization of spillover (c) planning of maintenance of captions (d) indications on possible floods (e.g. closing captions to avoid obstruction by debris) (e) co-ordination of production from a network with multiple stakeholders.The project builds upon synergies with funded running projects in the framework of CCHydro (WSL), NCCR Climate III (MeteoSwiss), MAP D-PHASE (MeteoSwiss and WSL), NRP61 DROUGHT-CH (WSL).The requested grant of about (CHF 250’000) is allocated for funding a joint PhD project (WSL and MeteoSwiss), for establishing a link between science and end-users via an industrial partner that will develop specific products (e-dric). Some funding is allocated to buy a server (including backup solution) for operational computations of hydropower forecasts.The project team will organize workshops and establish dialog where we will present our findings to stakeholders and industrial partners linked to SCCER and potentially interested in operative deployment of our R&D outcomes.
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