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Hydropower investments in the perspective of a new energy paradigm (HP Investment)

English title Hydropower investments in the perspective of a new energy paradigm (HP Investment)
Applicant Romerio-Giudici Franco
Number 153761
Funding scheme NRP 70 Energy Turnaround
Research institution Economie et politique de l'énergie Institut des sciences de l'environnement Université de Genève
Institution of higher education University of Geneva - GE
Main discipline Economics
Start/End 01.10.2014 - 31.05.2018
Approved amount 367'442.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Economics
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences

Keywords (5)

Energy policy; New investments and retrofitting; Electricity market; Hydropower; Future drivers

Lay Summary (French)

Lead
L'hydroélectricité (HP) représente 56% du mixte électrique suisse. Cette technologie est un pilier de la Stratégie Energétique 2050 qui planifie d'accroitre sa production afin d'utiliser sa flexibilité. Cette dernière caractéristique est nécessaire afin de permettre la progression des énergies renouvelables intermittentes. De plus, l’HP représente un important secteur économique, en particulier pour les cantons de montagne. Cependant, divers "drivers" affectent l’avenir de l’HP et doivent être analysés.
Lay summary

Contenu et objectifs du travail de recherche

Le but du projet est d'analyser la rentabilité des investissements hydroélectriques (nouveaux et de modernisation) en tenant en compte les risques et incertitudes. On se focalise sur les "drivers" de long terme. On combine les derniers résultats obtenus dans la littérature scientifique avec des simulations numériques. On applique diverses méthodes d'analyse d’investissement, par exemple les options réelles. Le but étant de savoir dans quelle mesure les politiques peuvent agir, et comment les managers peuvent concevoir leurs projets afin de les rendre plus adaptés à une situation d'ouverture des marchés.

Contexte scientifique et social du projet de recherche

Ce projet fait partie du joint-projet “L’avenir de l’hydroélectrique en Suisse: Une évaluation économique intégrée des opportunités, menaces et solutions” (HP Future), qui porte sur la gestion des aménagements hydroélectriques, l’investissement et la durabilité. Les préoccupations des collectivités publiques, des entreprises et des organisations concernées par l’HP sont intégrées dans le projet grâce à l’organisation de plusieurs workshops.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 15.10.2014

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Cenni storici = Historical background
Romerio Franco (2016), Cenni storici = Historical background, in Graf Franz, Buzzi-Hubert Britta (ed.), Mendrisio Academy Press, Mendrisio, 6-9.
Hydropower: From past to future uncertainties
Gaudard Ludovic, Romerio Franco (2016), Hydropower: From past to future uncertainties, in Little and Heffron (ed.), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, 307-316.
L’hydroélectrique en Suisse du début du XXe siècle jusqu’au « virage énergétique »
Gaudard Ludovic, Romerio Franco, Voegeli Guillaume (2016), L’hydroélectrique en Suisse du début du XXe siècle jusqu’au « virage énergétique », in Revue Historique Vaudoise, 124, 207-220.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
FoNEW, Universität Basel Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
FHO-HTW Chur Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Azienda Elettrica Ticinese (AET) Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
HES-SO Valais Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E Idrologia, Politecnico di Milano Italy (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
Alpiq Suisse SA Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Open talk at the University of Geneva Individual talk Managing uncertainty in energy systems 18.05.2017 Geneva, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
Open talk at the Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute Individual talk Managing uncertainty in energy systems 08.05.2017 Shenzhen, China Gaudard Ludovic;
Imperial College London seminars Individual talk The future of hydropower: An insight into drivers and uncertainty 23.02.2017 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Gaudard Ludovic;
Water-Energy-Food Nexus Forum Talk given at a conference Energy Economics and Policy 25.01.2017 Geneva, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
Energy Research Conference Disentis 2017 Talk given at a conference Managing investment uncertainty: Valuing flexibility 25.01.2017 Disentis, Switzerland Hediger Werner; Gaudard Ludovic;
Seminar of the Environmental Economic Cluster Individual talk The future of Swiss hydropower: An insight into drivers and uncertainty 05.12.2016 EAWAG, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
HEC seminars, University of Lausanne Individual talk The future of Swiss hydropower: Managing uncertainty 01.11.2016 Lausanne, Switzerland Romerio-Giudici Franco; Gaudard Ludovic;
IAEE International Conference Talk given at a conference Framework for decision-making process in granting rights to use hydropower in the European context 19.06.2016 Bergen, Norway Gaudard Ludovic; Romerio-Giudici Franco; Hediger Werner;
IAEE International Conference Talk given at a conference Operational versus managerial flexibility: The case of renewable energy 19.06.2016 Bergen, Norway Gaudard Ludovic; Romerio-Giudici Franco;
World Meteorological Organization seminars Individual talk The future of hydropower: An assessment of drivers and uncertainty 19.05.2016 WMO, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016 Talk given at a conference The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies 17.04.2016 Vienna, Austria Gaudard Ludovic;
Water Management Workshop Talk given at a conference Forecasting, projection or uncertainty management? 16.04.2016 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Gaudard Ludovic;
Energy Futures Lab seminars Individual talk Impact of climate change on hydropower and new challenges 26.02.2015 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Gaudard Ludovic;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
EGU session organization "Hydropower and other renewable sources of energy for a sustainable future: modelling and management issues" 28.04.2017 Vienna, Austria

Knowledge transfer events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Date Place Persons involved
EES Case Study Revenue Prospects and Investment Evaluation Talk 26.04.2017 Lausanne, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
Gestion des incertitudes Talk 13.09.2016 Office Cantonal de l'Energie, Switzerland Gaudard Ludovic;
Château d'eau: L'énergie hydroélectrique dans le contexte alpin Talk 09.09.2016 Sierre, Switzerland Romerio-Giudici Franco;
Gestion des incertitudes: Les options réelles Performances, exhibitions (e.g. for education institutions) 15.06.2016 Genève, Switzerland Romerio-Giudici Franco; Gaudard Ludovic;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
Gestion des incertitudes dans le domaine de l’énergie 01.03.2017 Geneva, Switzerland
2nd Workshop Future Hydro 28.10.2016 Neuchâtel, Switzerland
The Future of Swiss Hydropower 12.03.2015 Bern, Switzerland

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Il mercato dell'eletricità tra previsioni e incertezze Corriere del Ticino Italian-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Abbandono anticipato del nucleare o referendum sulla svolta energetica ? La Regione Western Switzerland 2017
Media relations: radio, television Crisi idroelettrica Televisione Svizzera Italiana Italian-speaking Switzerland 2017
Other activities EES Case Study report Western Switzerland 2017
Media relations: radio, television Il Ticino e la crisi dell'idroelettrico Teleticino Italian-speaking Switzerland 2017
Talks/events/exhibitions Scientific Coffee in a High School (La Planta) Western Switzerland 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Sortie du nucléaire: voter sans doute Agefi Western Switzerland 2017
Print (books, brochures, leaflets) The Future of Swiss Hydropower: Is there money left somewhere? Rhaeto-Romanic Switzerland German-speaking Switzerland Western Switzerland Italian-speaking Switzerland 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Faiblesse des solutions hybrides AGEFI Western Switzerland 2016
Talks/events/exhibitions La libéralisation du marché de l'électricité et la nouvelle politique énergétique Italian-speaking Switzerland 2016
Media relations: radio, television Le changement climatique est "positif" pour l'hydroélectricité en Suisse Radio Suisse Romande Western Switzerland 2015
Media relations: print media, online media Les enjeux et perspectives de la stratégie énergétique 2050 Clés de vote Western Switzerland 2015
Media relations: radio, television Sul filo elettrico RSI Italian-speaking Switzerland 2015
Media relations: print media, online media Analisi delle decisioni del Conseil National sulla nuova legge sull’energia La Regione Italian-speaking Switzerland 2014
Media relations: radio, television L’energia del future RSI Italian-speaking Switzerland 2014

Abstract

Hydropower (HP) represents about 56% of the electricity mix in Switzerland. It is a pillar of the Energy Strategy 2050 (ES 2050), which plans to increase its production and take advantage of its flexibility. HP also represents an important sector for the Swiss economy and in particular for the mountain cantons.However, some drivers can jeopardize the future of HP. Wholesale market prices that are too low will prevent fixed and even variable costs from being covered. New technologies, for instance new electricity storage facilities, may represent direct contenders for HP. Climate change affects HP’s potential and the imminent end of water concessions creates regulatory uncertainties.The objective of this project is to assess the profitability of HP investments (new and retrofitting) and to understand their related uncertainties. It also aims to evaluate the impact of the long-term drivers on HP, namely smart grids, climate change and sedimentation. Smart grids represent the most radical change in the electric system and involve peak shaving, as well as an increasing share of intermittent renewables and new storage technologies.The project belongs to the joint-project entitled “The Future of Swiss Hydropower: An Integrated Economic Assessment of Chances, Threats and Solutions” (HP Future). The objectives of the other two projects are respectively, the optimization of HP plants in the short-term (HP Operation, WP1), and an assessment of their sustainability (HP Sustainability, WP3). They should also evaluate the market and institutional drivers.
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