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Assessing Future Electricity Markets (AFEM)

English title Assessing Future Electricity Markets (AFEM)
Applicant Schaffner Christian
Number 153747
Funding scheme NRP 70 Energy Turnaround
Research institution Energy Science Center (ESC) ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Electrical Engineering
Start/End 01.10.2014 - 31.12.2018
Approved amount 48'004.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Electrical Engineering
Economics

Keywords (9)

Integration of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Market Model; Renewable Energy Potential; Electricity Grids; Electricity Grids; Market Design; Flexibility Markets; Capacity Markets; Electricity Markets; RES Integration

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Neben der Beurteilung von derzeitigen Marktmodellen im schweizerischen und europäischen Strommarkt sollen neuen Martkmodelle entwickelt, welche es ermöglichen, das Verhalten von zukünftigen Elektrizitätsversorgungssystemen zu untersuchen, bei denen erneuerbare Energiequellen einen zentrale Rolle spielen. Der hohe Anteil von variablen Energiequellen insbesondere auf der Basis von Wind und Sonne wird die dynamischen Fluktuationen im Energiesystem stark ansteigen lassen. Die neuen Modellklassen, welche unter AFEM entwickelt werden, müssen diese Fluktuationen abbilden können, um z.B. das Verhalten von den diskutierten Flexibilitätsmärkten (oder andere neue Marktmodelle) modellieren zu können. Solch ein Marktdesign soll die spezifischen dynamischen Möglichkeiten von Kraftwerkstypen (z.B. Pumpspeicherwerke), Laststeuerung und Speicherung (z.B. Batterien) bewerten können. Die Marktmodelle werden auf Basis der Energie- und Klima-Ziele der “Energiestrategie 2050” des Bundes evaluiert.
Lay summary

Das Projekt "Assessing Future Electricity Markets" (Bewertung von zukünftigen Marktsystemen, AFEM) soll drei grundsätzliche Forschungsfragen beantworten:

1. Wie wird sich der schweizerische und europäische Strommarkt entwickeln wenn die heutigen Marktmodelle (“Energy Only”-Markt, Systemdienstleistungsmarkt) weitergeführt werden? 

2. Wie wird sich der Markt entwickeln, wenn weitere Komponenten wie z.B. Kapazitätsmärkte eingeführt werden?

3. Wie müssen zukünftige Marktmodelle ausgestaltet werden, um die “richtigen” Investitionsanreize (z.B. Flexibilitätsmärkte) zu geben, um ein effizientes und CO2-neutrales Energieversorgungssystem zu gewährleisten?

Das Ziel der ersten beiden Forschungsfragen ist erstens die Analyse des derzeitigen Design des Strommarktes in Europa und zweitens die Identifikation von Unzulänglichkeiten des existierenden Regulierungsrahmens als auch der derzeit diskutierten Erweiterungen (z.B. Kapazitätsmärkte oder Kapazitätszahlungen). Dies beinhaltet die Identifikation der notwendigen und passenden Annahmen und Vereinfachungen um das spezifische Verhalten der Marktteilnehmer modellieren zu können und gleichzeitig die Komplexität auf einem handhabbaren Niveau zu halten.   

Die dritte Forschungsfrage wird durch die Entwicklung von neuen Modellen beantwortet, welche es ermöglichen, das Verhalten von zukünftigen Elektrizitätsversorgungssystemen zu untersuchen. Die neuen Modellklassen, welche unter AFEM entwickelt werden, müssen diese Fluktuationen abbilden können, um z.B. das Verhalten von den diskutierten Flexibilitätsmärkten (oder andere neue Marktmodelle) modellieren zu können. Solch ein Marktdesign soll die spezifischen dynamischen Möglichkeiten von Kraftwerkstypen (z.B. Pumpspeicherwerke), Laststeuerung und Speicherung (z.B. Batterien, Power-to-Gas) bewerten können. Die Marktmodelle werden auf Basis der Energie- und Klima-Ziele der “Energiestrategie 2050” des Bundes evaluiert.

 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 20.10.2014

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Spatio-temporal potential of a biogenic micro CHP swarm in Switzerland
Buffat René, Raubal Martin (2019), Spatio-temporal potential of a biogenic micro CHP swarm in Switzerland, in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 103, 443-454.
Carbon abatement with renewables: Evaluating wind and solar subsidies in Germany and Spain
Abrell Jan, Kosch Mirjam, Rausch Sebastian (2019), Carbon abatement with renewables: Evaluating wind and solar subsidies in Germany and Spain, in Journal of Public Economics, 169, 172-202.
Combining Investment, Dispatch, and Security Models - An Assessment of Future Electricity Market Options for Switzerland
Garrison Jared B., Demiray Turhan, Abrell Jan, Savelsberg Jonas, Weigt Hannes, Schaffner Christian (2018), Combining Investment, Dispatch, and Security Models - An Assessment of Future Electricity Market Options for Switzerland, in 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), LodzIEEE, USA.
A scalable method for estimating rooftop solar irradiation potential over large regions
Buffat René, Grassi Stefano, Raubal Martin (2018), A scalable method for estimating rooftop solar irradiation potential over large regions, in Applied Energy, 216, 389-401.
Automatic selection of weights for GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: site selection of transmission towers as a case study
Veronesi Fabio, Schito Joram, Grassi Stefano, Raubal Martin (2017), Automatic selection of weights for GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: site selection of transmission towers as a case study, in Applied Geography, 83, 78-85.
Nuclear and coal moratoria effects on the European electricity system
Savelsberg Jonas (2017), Nuclear and coal moratoria effects on the European electricity system, in 2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden, GermanyIEEE, USA.
Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning
Veronesi F, Grassi S (2016), Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning, in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 749, 012001-012001.
Cross-country electricity trade, renewable energy and European transmission infrastructure policy
Abrell Jan, Rausch Sebastian (2016), Cross-country electricity trade, renewable energy and European transmission infrastructure policy, in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 79, 87-113.
Feature-Aware Surface Interpolation of Rooftops Using Low-Density Lidar Data for Photovoltaic Applications
Buffat René (2016), Feature-Aware Surface Interpolation of Rooftops Using Low-Density Lidar Data for Photovoltaic Applications, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 337-350.
Statistical learning approach for wind resource assessment
Veronesi F., Grassi S., Raubal M. (2016), Statistical learning approach for wind resource assessment, in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 56, 836-850.
Effect of increased renewables generation on operation of thermal power plants
Eser Patrick, Singh Antriksh, Chokani Ndaona, Abhari Reza S. (2016), Effect of increased renewables generation on operation of thermal power plants, in Applied Energy, 164, 723-732.
Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data
KorfiatiAthina, GkonosCharalampos, VeronesiFabio, GakiAriadni, GrassiStefano, SchenkelRoland, VolkweinStephan, RaubalMartin, HurniLorenz (2016), Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data, in International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 9, 17-30.
Comparison of hourly and daily wind speed observations for the computation of Weibull parameters and power output
Veronesi Fabio, Grassi Stefano (2015), Comparison of hourly and daily wind speed observations for the computation of Weibull parameters and power output, in 2015 3rd International Renewable and Sustainable Energy Conference (IRSEC), Marrakech, MoroccoIEEE, USA.
Validation of CM SAF SARAH solar radiation datasets for Switzerland
Buffat Rene, Grassi Stefano (2015), Validation of CM SAF SARAH solar radiation datasets for Switzerland, in 2015 3rd International Renewable and Sustainable Energy Conference (IRSEC), MarrakechIEEE, USA.
High resolution simulations of increased renewable penetration on Central European transmission grid
Eser Patrick, Singh Antriksh, Chokani Ndaona, Abhari Reza S. (2015), High resolution simulations of increased renewable penetration on Central European transmission grid, in 2015 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Denver, CO, USAIEEE, USA.
Optimal placement of wind turbines on a continuous domain: An MILP-based approach
Marseglia G.R., Arbasini A., Grassi S., Raubal M., Raimondo D.M. (2015), Optimal placement of wind turbines on a continuous domain: An MILP-based approach, in 2015 American Control Conference (ACC), Chicago, IL, USAIEEE, USA.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Centre for Energy Policy Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
EWZ Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Geoinformations-Engineering Group (IKG), ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Alpiq Switzerland (Europe)
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Laboratory for Energy Conversion (LEC), ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Swissgrid Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Forschungsstelle Energienetze (FEN), ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Prof. Dr. Felix Kienast, Department of Environmental System Science ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Energie- und Wasserversorgung (FoNEW), University of Basel Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
High Voltage Laboratory, D-ITET, ETH Zurich Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
AFEM postdoc/PhD workshop on Basic models results Talk given at a conference Project Agenda for Integrated Modeling of Energy Systems 27.04.2016 Zurich, Switzerland Schaffner Christian;
10. Schweizerische Energieforschungskonferenz Talk given at a conference Assessing Future Electricity Markets 14.04.2016 Lucerne, Switzerland Schaffner Christian;
AFEM postdoc/PhD workshop on Models Talk given at a conference Model Integration within the AFEM umbrella 16.02.2016 Zurich, Switzerland Crespo Del Granado Pedro; Schaffner Christian;
Workshop: Frontiers in Energy Systems Modelling Talk given at a conference Combining modelling approaches 19.11.2015 Zurich, Switzerland Crespo Del Granado Pedro; Schaffner Christian;
Kick-off meeting of NRPs 70 and 71 Poster AFEM Joint Project Poster 24.04.2015 Lucerne, Switzerland Rausch Sebastian; Schaffner Christian; Crespo Del Granado Pedro;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
SNF Site Visit #2 30.08.2017 ETH Zurich Energy Science Center, Switzerland
AFEM Stakeholders Workshop on Scenarios 28.11.2016 ETH Zurich Energy Science Center, Switzerland
AFEM postdoc/PhD workshop on Basic models results 27.04.2016 Zurich, Switzerland
AFEM postdoc/PhD workshop on Models 16.02.2016 Zurich, Switzerland
SNF Site Visit #1 23.11.2015 ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Workshop: Frontiers in Energy Systems Modelling 19.11.2015 Zurich, Switzerland

Knowledge transfer events



Self-organised

Title Date Place
Workshop: Frontiers in Energy Systems Modelling 19.11.2015 Zurich, Switzerland

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Bewertung zukünftiger Strommärkte bulletin.ch German-speaking Switzerland 2017
Talks/events/exhibitions 10. Schweizerische Energieforschungskonferenz German-speaking Switzerland Italian-speaking Switzerland Rhaeto-Romanic Switzerland Western Switzerland 2016
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Assessing Future Energy Markets (AFEM) Weekly Spotlight on Energy Research, Webpage Energy Science Center, ETH Zurich International Rhaeto-Romanic Switzerland Italian-speaking Switzerland German-speaking Switzerland Western Switzerland 2016

Abstract

In the joint umbrella project "Assessing Future Electricity Markets" (AFEM) three main questions will be answered: 1.) How will the Swiss and European electricity market evolve if the existing market mechanism (energy only market, reserve market) be perpetuated as is? 2.) How will the market evolve if additional market components such as capacity markets are introduced? 3.) How do future market models need to be designed in order to give the “right” investment incentive (e.g., flexibility markets) for an efficient yet carbon-free electricity supply system? The goal of the first two research questions is to first analyse the current design of the electricity market in Europe today and then identify shortcomings both of the existing setup and of already discussed additions (such as capacity markets or capacity payments). This involves identifying the necessary and suitable assumptions and simplifications in order to be able to model the specific behaviour of market participants while limiting the complexity to a feasible level.The third research question will be answered by developing new models which enable analysing the specific behaviour of future electricity supply systems in which renewable energy sources (RES) are likely to be deployed at large scale. The high amount of variable electricity production mainly from wind and photovoltaic generation units will increase the dynamic fluctuation within the overall system significantly. The models being developed within AFEM need to be able to take these fluctuations into account in order to e.g. study the behaviour of a proposed flexibility market or other new market designs. Such a market would allow the valuation of specific dynamic capability of power generation (e.g., pumped-hydro storage), demand-side management (DSM) and storage (e.g., batteries, power-to-gas) technologies. The proposed market models will be evaluated according to the energy and climate goals set by the “Energy Strategy 2050” of the Federal Council. In order to be able to answer the research questions the models to be developed will feature the combination of bottom-up (fundamental markets) and top-down (macro economic) models. All modelling (supply and demand, grid, and market models) will take the whole European electricity system into account while focusing on the specific situation within Switzerland. The proposed market models will be evaluated according to the energy and climate goals set by the “Energy Strategy 2050”. The project will feature the combination of bottom-up (fundamental markets) and top-down (macro economic) models. All models (supply and demand, grid, and market models) will take the whole European electricity system into account while focusing on the specific situation within Switzerland. The project has a focus on the development of large-scale market models. A tight collaboration with the partners will be pursued during the entire project period. There will be three industry partners: ewz, the utility of the City of Zurich, Swissgrid, the Swiss Transmission System Operator (TSO), and Alpiq, a leading Swiss generation company. They will provide input data, be members of the advisory board and have a strong interest in the project (see attached support letters). The project partners are furthermore involved in SCCER FURIES (“Future Swiss Electrical Infrastructure”), SCCER SoE (“Supply of Electric Energy”), SCCER CREST (“Competence Center for Research in Energy, Society, and Transition”) and SCCER “Efficient concepts, processes and components in mobility” ensuring a close coordination between those important research fields. These mentioned partners will provide know-how, input data and market needs to the sub-projects tasks, facilitating the technology improvement and the identification of market deployment opportunities.The AFEM project has been set up as a cross-disciplinary project in order to cope with the main issues faced in the design of a future electricity market.
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