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Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II

Titel Englisch Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II
Gesuchsteller/in Schmutz Werner
Nummer 147659
Förderungsinstrument Sinergia
Forschungseinrichtung Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und Weltstrahlungszentrum
Hochschule Physikal.-Meteorolog. Observatorium Davos - PMOD
Disziplinen Klimatologie, Atmosphärenphysik, Aeronomie
Beginn/Ende 01.01.2014 - 31.03.2017
Bewilligter Betrag 1'081'075.00
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Keywords (7)

Future Solar forcing, Ocean, Modelling, Sun-Earth connection, Past Solar forcing, Chemistry, Climate

Lay Summary (Deutsch)

Lead
Die Klimaerwärmung gehört zu den grossen Herausforderungen der Menschheit. Zahlreiche Messreihen weisen nach, dass seit ca. 1970 der menschliche Einfluss auf das Klima zum dominierenden Faktor geworden ist. Trotzdem kann man natürliche Einflüsse wie die Schwankungen der Sonnenstrahlung oder Vulkane auf den Langzeittrend des Klimas nicht vernachlässigen. Derzeit schätzt der Internationale Ausschuss für Klimaänderung das Wissen um den Faktor des solaren Einflusses auf die Klimaerwärmung als niedrig ein. Trotz erheblichen Fortschritten in der Beobachtung und Modellierung des Sonneneinflusses bestehen immer noch grosse Unsicherheiten bezüglich des Wie und der Stärke des solaren Einflusses auf das Klima.
Lay summary

 

Im Verlauf von FUPSOL-I haben wir neue Rekonstruktionen der spektralen solaren Einstrahlung für den Zeitraum 1600-2100 veröffentlicht. Diese wurden zusammen mit den weiteren notwendigen Rahmenbedingungen (sogenannte forcings) für Simulationen mit einem neu entwickelten Atmosphären-Ozean-Chemie-Klima-Modell (AOCCM -- Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model) zur Berechnung des Klimas und der Ozonschicht dieses Zeitraums verwendet. Die Resultate zeigen, dass der vorausgesagte Rückgang der Sonnenaktivität in der zweiten Hälfte des 21ten Jahrhunderts bis zu 20 % der Treibhausgas-Erwärmung kompensieren könnten. Es zeigte sich aber auch, dass einerseits das verwendete Klimamodell noch Mängel aufweisen, u.a. zu stark auf den Anstieg der Treibhausgase reagiert und das Europäische Winter-Klima nicht richtig reproduziert, und anderseits gibt es Beobachtungs-Hinweise, dass die solare UV-Einstrahlung stärker variiert als in unseren Rechnungen angenommen wurde. Ein weiteres wichtiges Resultat war, dass der simulierte Zeitraum bis 2100 zu kurz ist, um den möglichen zukünftigen Sonneneinfluss auf die Klimaerwärmung richtig zu definieren. Das Fortsetzungsprojekt FUPSOL-II wird daher mit einer Serie von Untersuchungen das Klimamodell verbessern und unter Berücksichtigung von neuen Erkenntnissen zu den Randbedingungen Simulationen bis 2200 berechnen.

Die FUPSOL-II Untersuchungen sind sehr aktuell, da sich die Hinweise für eine zukünftige reduzierte Sonnenaktivität verstärken. Das Projekt wird unser Wissen über den Sonneneinfluss auf das Klima auf eine solidere Basis stellen und zusammen mit neuen Beobachtungsdaten wird das Verständnis unseres Klimasystems auf allen Zeitskalen, von Wetter bis zu Langzeittrends, wesentlich verbessert.
Direktlink auf Lay Summary Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.02.2014

Verantw. Gesuchsteller/in und weitere Gesuchstellende

Mitarbeitende

Publikationen

Publikation
Tambora and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816. A Perspective on Earth and Human Systems Science
Brönnimann S., Krämer D. (2016), Tambora and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816. A Perspective on Earth and Human Systems Science, Geographica Bernensia , Bern.
The coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM
Muthers S., Anet J. G., Stenke A., Raible C. C., Rozanov E., Broennimann S., Peter T., Arfeuille F. X., Shapiro A. I., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2014), The coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM, in GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 7(5), 2157-2179.
Evaluation of the ECHAM family radiation codes performance in the representation of the solar signal
Sukhodolov T., Rozanov E., Shapiro A. I., Anet J., Cagnazzo C., Peter T., Schmutz W. (2014), Evaluation of the ECHAM family radiation codes performance in the representation of the solar signal, in GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 7(6), 2859-2866.
Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980 (vol 8, pg 969, 2015)
Broennimann Stefan, Fischer Andreas M., Rozanov Eugene, Poli Paul, Compo Gilbert P., Sardeshmukh Prashant D. (2015), Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980 (vol 8, pg 969, 2015), in NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 8(12), 969-974.
Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth's Atmosphere
Mironova Irina A., Aplin Karen L., Arnold Frank, Bazilevskaya Galina A., Harrison R. Giles, Krivolutsky Alexei A., Nicoll Keri A., Rozanov Eugene V., Turunen Esa, Usoskin Ilya G. (2015), Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth's Atmosphere, in SPACE SCIENCE REVIEWS, 194(1-4), 1-96.
The impacts of volcanic aerosol on stratospheric ozone and the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex: separating radiative-dynamical changes from direct effects due to enhanced aerosol heterogeneous chemistry
Muthers S., Arfeuille F., Raible C. C., Rozanov E. (2015), The impacts of volcanic aerosol on stratospheric ozone and the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex: separating radiative-dynamical changes from direct effects due to enhanced aerosol heterogeneous chemistry, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 15(20), 11461-11476.
Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response
Hood L. L., Misios S., Mitchell D. M., Rozanov E., Gray L. J., Tourpali K., Matthes K., Schmidt H., Chiodo G., Thieblemont R., Shindell D., Krivolutsky A. (2015), Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response, in QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 141(692), 2670-2689.
Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway
Mitchell D. M., Misios S., Gray L. J., Tourpali K., Matthes K., Hood L., Schmidt H., Chiodo G., Thieblemont R., Rozanov E., Shindell D., Krivolutsky A. (2015), Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway, in QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 141(691), 2390-2403.
A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816
Brugnara Y., Auchmann R., Broennimann S., Allan R. J., Auer I., Barriendos M., Bergstrom H., Bhend J., Brazdil R., Compo G. P., Cornes R. C., Dominguez-Castro F., van Engelen A. F. V., Filipiak J., Holopainen J., Jourdain S., Kunz M., Luterbacher J., Maugeri M., Mercalli L., Moberg A., Mock C. J., Pichard G., Reznckova L., van der Schrier G. (2015), A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816, in CLIMATE OF THE PAST, 11(8), 1027-1047.
Climatic Changes Since 1700
Stefan Brönnimann (2016), Climatic Changes Since 1700, Springer, Switzerland.
High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations
Ball W. T., Haigh J. D., Rozanov E. V., Kuchar A., Sukhodolov T., Tummon F., Shapiro A. V., Schmutz W. (2016), High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, in Nature Geoscience, 9(3), 206-209.
Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere-ocean couplingSurface Solar Signals in CMIP-5
Misios S., Mitchell D. M., Gray L. J., Tourpali K., Matthes K., Hood L., Schmidt H., Chiodo G., Thiéblemont R., Rozanov E., Krivolutsky A. (2016), Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere-ocean couplingSurface Solar Signals in CMIP-5, in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 928-941.
The influence of Middle Range Energy Electrons on atmospheric chemistry and regional climate
Arsenovic P., Rozanov E., Stenke A., Funke B., Wissing J.M., Mursula K., Tummon F., Peter T. (2016), The influence of Middle Range Energy Electrons on atmospheric chemistry and regional climate, in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 149, 180-190.
Evaluation of the simulated photolysis rates and their response to solar irradiance variabilityMiddle atm. photolysis rate modelling
Sukhodolov Timofei, Rozanov Eugene, Ball William, Bais Alkiviadis, Tourpali Kleareti, Shapiro Alexander, Telford Paul, Smyshlyaev Sergey, Fomin Boris, Sander Rolf, Bossay Sébastien, Bekki Slimane, Marchand Marion, Chipperfield Martyn P., Dhomse Sandip, Haigh Joanna D., Peter Thomas, Schmutz Werner (2016), Evaluation of the simulated photolysis rates and their response to solar irradiance variabilityMiddle atm. photolysis rate modelling, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(10), 6066 -6084.
Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100AGE OF AIR BETWEEN 1600 AND 2100
Muthers S., Kuchar A., Stenke A., Schmitt J., Anet J. G., Raible C. C., Stocker T. F. (2016), Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100AGE OF AIR BETWEEN 1600 AND 2100, in Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5409-5418.
Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effectsTambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions
Raible Christoph C., Brönnimann Stefan, Auchmann Renate, Brohan Philip, Frölicher Thomas L., Graf Hans-F., Jones Phil, Luterbacher Jürg, Muthers Stefan, Neukom Raphael, Robock Alan, Self Stephen, Sudrajat Adjat, Timmreck Claudia, Wegmann Martin (2016), Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effectsTambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions, in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 7(4), 569-589.
Response of the AMOC to reduced solar radiation – the modulating role of atmospheric chemistry
Muthers Stefan, Raible Christoph C., Rozanov Eugene, Stocker Thomas F. (2016), Response of the AMOC to reduced solar radiation – the modulating role of atmospheric chemistry, in Earth System Dynamics, 7(4), 877-892.
An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis
Ball William T., Kuchař Aleš, Rozanov Eugene V., Staehelin Johannes, Tummon Fiona, Smith Anne K., Sukhodolov Timofei, Stenke Andrea, Revell Laura, Coulon Ancelin, Schmutz Werner, Peter Thomas (2016), An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(24), 15485-15500.
Multidecadal variations of the effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the climate system
Brönnimann Stefan, Malik Abdul, Stickler Alexander, Wegmann Martin, Raible Christoph C., Muthers Stefan, Anet Julien, Rozanov Eugene, Schmutz Werner (2016), Multidecadal variations of the effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the climate system, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(24), 15529-15543.
The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour
Revell Laura E., Stenke Andrea, Rozanov Eugene, Ball William, Lossow Stefan, Peter Thomas (2016), The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(20), 13067-13080.
Foreword: Special issue on “Effects of the solar wind and interplanetary disturbances on the Earth's atmosphere and climate”
Rozanov E., Georgieva K., Mironova I., Tinsley B., Aylward A. (2016), Foreword: Special issue on “Effects of the solar wind and interplanetary disturbances on the Earth's atmosphere and climate”, in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 149, 146-150.
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing \hack{\newline} input data for CMIP6
Zanchettin D., Khodri M., Timmreck C., Toohey M., Schmidt A., Gerber E. P., Hegerl G., Robock A., Pausata F. S. R., Ball W. T., Bauer S. E., Bekki S., Dhomse S. S., LeGrande A. N., Mann G. W., Marshall L., Mills M., Marchand M., Niemeier U., Poulain V., Rozanov E., Rubino A., Stenke A., Tsigaridis K., Tummon F. (2016), The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing \hack{\newline} input data for CMIP6, in Geoscientific Model Development, 9(8), 2701-2719.
HEPPA-II model–measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008–2009
Funke Bernd, Ball William, Bender Stefan, Gardini Angela, Harvey V. Lynn, Lambert Alyn, López-Puertas Manuel, Marsh Daniel R., Meraner Katharina, Nieder Holger, Päivärinta Sanna-Mari, Pérot Kristell, Randall Cora E., Reddmann Thomas, Rozanov Eugene, Schmidt Hauke, Seppälä Annika, Sinnhuber Miriam, Sukhodolov Timofei, Stiller Gabriele P., Tsvetkova Natalia D., Verronen Pekka T., Versick Stefan, von Clarmann Thomas, et al. (2017), HEPPA-II model–measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008–2009, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(5), 3573-3604.
Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)
Morgenstern Olaf, Hegglin Michaela I., Rozanov Eugene, O&, apos, Connor Fiona M., Abraham N. Luke, Akiyoshi Hideharu, Archibald Alexander T., Bekki Slimane, Butchart Neal, Chipperfield Martyn P., Deushi Makoto, Dhomse Sandip S., Garcia Rolando R., Hardiman Steven C., Horowitz Larry W., Jöckel Patrick, Josse Beatrice, Kinnison Douglas, Lin Meiyun, Mancini Eva, Manyin Michael E., Marchand Marion, Marécal Virginie, Michou Martine, et al. (2017), Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), in Geoscientific Model Development, 10(2), 639-671.
Modeling of the middle atmosphere response to 27-day solar irradiance variability
Sukhodolov Timofei, Rozanov Eugene, Ball William T., Peter Thomas, Schmutz Werner (2017), Modeling of the middle atmosphere response to 27-day solar irradiance variability, in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 152-153, 50-61.
Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD
Sukhodolov Timofei, Usoskin Ilya, Rozanov Eugene, Asvestari Eleanna, Ball William T., Curran Mark A. J., Fischer Hubertus, Kovaltsov Gennady, Miyake Fusa, Peter Thomas, Plummer Christopher, Schmutz Werner, Severi Mirko, Traversi Rita (2017), Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD, in Scientific Reports, 7, 45257-45257.
Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of Central European weather types from 1763 to 2009
Schwander Mikhaël, Rohrer Marco, Brönnimann Stefan, Malik Abdul (2017), Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of Central European weather types from 1763 to 2009, in Climate of the Past Discussions, 1-25.
Assessing the beginning to end-of-mission sensitivity change of the PREcision MOnitor Sensor total solar irradiance radiometer (PREMOS/PICARD)
Ball William T., Schmutz Werner, Fehlmann André, Finsterle Wolfgang, Walter Benjamin (2016), Assessing the beginning to end-of-mission sensitivity change of the PREcision MOnitor Sensor total solar irradiance radiometer (PREMOS/PICARD), in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 6, A32-A32.
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations
Jungclaus Johann H., Bard Edouard, Baroni Mélanie, Braconnot Pascale, Cao Jian, Chini Louise P., Egorova Tania, Evans Michael, González-Rouco J. Fidel, Goosse Hugues, Hurtt Georges C., Joos Fortunat, Kaplan Jed O., Khodri Myriam, Klein Goldewijk Kees, Krivova Natalie, LeGrande Allegra N., Lorenz Stephan J., Luterbacher Jürg, Man Wenmin, Meinshausen Malte, Moberg Anders, Nehrbass-Ahles Christian, Otto-Bliesner Bette I., et al. (2016), The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations, in Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-34.
Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM
Malik Abdul, Brönnimann Stefan, Stickler Alexander, Raible Christoph C., Muthers Stefan, Anet Julien, Rozanov Eugene, Schmutz Werner (accepted), Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM, in Climate Dynamics, 1-22.

Zusammenarbeit

Gruppe / Person Land
Felder der Zusammenarbeit
University Oulu Finnland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
MPI for meteorology, Hamburg Deutschland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
IAA CSIC Spanien (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Charles University Tschechische Republik (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Univ. Giessen Deutschland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
FU Berlin Deutschland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
Sankt Petersburg State University Russland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
MPS Deutschland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation

Wissenschaftliche Veranstaltungen

Aktiver Beitrag

Titel Art des Beitrags Datum Ort
Swiss SCOSTEP workshop Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung 04.10.2016 Bern, Schweiz


Selber organisiert

Titel Datum Ort
FUPSOL Workshop 27.03.2017 Davos, Schweiz
FUPSOL workshop 14.12.2016 Zurich, Schweiz
FUPSOL workshop 27.10.2015 Zurich , Schweiz
FUPSOL Workshop 09.12.2014 Zurich, Schweiz

Kommunikation mit der Öffentlichkeit

Kommunikation Titel Medien Ort Jahr
Medienarbeit: Printmedien, Online-Medien Einfluss der Sonne auf den Klimawandel erstmals beziffert SNSF Newsroom Deutschschweiz International 2017
Medienarbeit: Printmedien, Online-Medien Forscher beziffern den Einfluss der Sonne auf den Klimawandel NZZ International Deutschschweiz 2017
Medienarbeit: Radio, Fernsehen Klimaerwärmung wird vorübergehend gebremst SRF 1 Deutschschweiz International 2017
Neue Medien (Web, Blogs, Podcasts, NewsFeed, usw.) Atmospheric impact of the strongest known solar particle storm assessed University of Oulu press International 2017
Medienarbeit: Printmedien, Online-Medien Ancient solar particle storm quantified ETHZ News Westschweiz International 2017

Auszeichnungen

Titel Jahr
International Kristian Birkeland Medal for space weather and space climate .. for a unique ability to combine basic and applied research to obtain useful products, preferentially being used outside the research community, or across disciplines in research. The work must have led to a better physical comprehension of the solar or terrestrial phenomena related to space weather, to a drastic improvement of the modeling, or to a new generation of instruments for space weather observations. 2015

Verbundene Projekte

Nummer Titel Start Förderungsinstrument
130642 Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate 01.09.2010 Sinergia
169647 NLTE calculations of the Solar Spectrum with Cross-Influence of Solar Atmospheric Structures. II Validation and Application 01.01.2017 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
157099 NLTE calculations of the Solar Spectrum with Cross-Influence of Solar Atmospheric Structures 01.01.2015 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
153301 Physical understaning of the solar irradiance at radio frequencies 01.04.2014 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
159563 Climate and Environmental Physics 01.04.2015 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
162668 Reconstructing Climate Using Ensemble Kalman Fitting (REUSE) 01.06.2016 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
140573 Seismology of the Sun, Variability of Solar Irradiance, and its implications on the terrestrial middle atmosphere 01.04.2012 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
163206 Study to determine Spectral Solar Irradiance and its impact on the middle atmosphere (SIMA) 01.10.2015 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
172745 Climate and Environmental Physics: Pleistocene Earth System Evolution (pleistoCEP) 01.04.2017 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
153302 Variability of Solar Irradiance and its implications on the terrestrial middle atmosphere 01.04.2014 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
169241 Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC) 01.10.2016 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)

Abstract

Global warming is one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor of climate change since about 1970, however the natural factors such as solar variability and volcanic eruptions cannot be neglected on longer time scales. In the previous IPCC assessment (IPCC, 2007) the understanding level of the solar influence on climate was graded as very low. During the last six years a major progress in both, observations and modeling advanced the scientific understanding of solar influence on climate, but still there remain open questions, which should be resolved in the nearest future. The results of the ongoing FUPSOL project (FUPSOL-I) make a substantial contribution to this process. In the framework of FUPSOL-I we proposed new reconstructions of the solar activity and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) covering 500 years (1600-2100) based on the analysis of the improved 10Be data set and the comprehensive solar radiation code COSI. We developed a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM) and simulated the climate and ozone layer behavior from 1600 up to 2100 by applying spectral solar forcing and all other known forcing data compiled by the project team. The results suggest that the predicted decline of the solar activity in the second half of 21st century might compensate up to 20 % of the greenhouse warming and delay the recovery of the ozone layer. The extensive set of the sensitivity studies improves considerably the discrimination be-tween the contributions of different forcing factors to ozone and climate change. However, based on the analysis of our results and based on recently appeared new observational data and theoretical studies, we conclude that further analyses are needed, in particular with regard to the following issues: (i) the simulated period (1600-2100) is too short to properly de-fine solar contribution to the future climate; (ii) the climate sensitivity of the applied model to the greenhouse gas increase seems too high; (iii) our AOCCM model has deficiencies in reproducing the observed European winter time climate re-sponse to solar forcing; (iv) the analysis of the data representing weather time scale variability was not planned in FUSPOL-I; (v) there is observational evidence that the solar UV forcing should be stronger than applied in our experiments. These problems should be addressed to corroborate and refine the conclusions of FUPSOL-I. Therefore, the proposed main goals of FUPSOL-II project are: • Analyze the data obtained during FUPSOL-I, concentrating on weather time scale events and their connection to the solar activity; • Improve the reconstructions of solar spectral irradiance taking into account new observational data and the results of the climate simulations; • Perform a set of sensitivity studies to better understand climate response to greenhouse gases and the response of the European winter time climate to solar forcing; • Predict solar forcing factors until 2200 AD and simulate the global climate system behavior from 2000 to 2200 with the improved version of the model. The proposal is timely because of growing evidence that the Sun is about to enter a new and less active phase of magnetic activity. The present solar maximum will provide new and unprecedented instrumental data, which in combination with long-term reconstructions based on solar activity proxies will form the basis for more reliable model runs of future solar influence on the terrestrial climate. The project is expected to significantly increase our knowledge of the solar influence on the climate system on time scales from short-term weather related to centennial and to elucidate the role of the Sun in future climate change.