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Improving the Prediction of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Weather and Climate - From Theory to Application

Applicant Domeisen Daniela
Number 170523
Funding scheme SNSF Professorships
Research institution Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Start/End 01.08.2017 - 31.07.2021
Approved amount 1'559'696.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Climatology. Atmospherical Chemistry, Aeronomy
Meteorology

Keywords (10)

stratosphere - troposphere coupling; teleconnections; ocean - atmosphere coupling; weather and climate; midlatitude weather; sub-seasonal to seasonal variability; stakeholder involvement; statistical forecasting; extreme weather events; tropical - extratropical coupling

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Wettervorhersagen für Europa sind meist nur wenige Tage im Voraus möglich, während langfristige Modelle das zukünftige Klima bereits Jahrzehnte im Voraus berechnen. Die Zeitspanne dazwischen - Vorhersagen von mehreren Wochen bis zu wenigen Monaten - sind jedoch noch kaum abgedeckt, obwohl es eine starke Nachfrage nach genau diesen Informationen gibt: Energiefirmen möchten planen, wieviel Wind- und Sonnenenergie in den nächsten Wochen erwartet werden kann, Bergregionen benötigen Informationen darüber, wieviel Schnee im nächsten Monat erwartet wird, und die Landwirtschaft möchte eine Vorhersage der Regenverteilung. Der Grund für die schlechte Verfügbarkeit von verlässlicher Information zum Wetter auf Zeitskalen von Wochen bis Monaten ist unter anderem, dass eine Vielzahl komplexer Wetter- und Klimaphänomene Europa auf genau diesen Zeitskalen beeinflusst - von El Nino im tropischen Pazifik bis zum Polarwirbel auf über 10 Kilometern Höhe in der Atmosphäre.
Lay summary

Die Wissenschaft hat die Wichtigkeit der Vorhersagbarkeit auf den Zeitskalen von Wochen bis Monaten erkannt und ein Netzwerk von Wettermodellen und Institutionen aufgebaut, um das Problem anzuge- hen. Diese Arbeit hat zum Ziel, mit einem Fokus auf die Region Nordatlantik und Europa diejenigen Wetterphänomene zu identifizieren, welche die Vorhersage verbessern können, z.B. in der oberen Atmosphäre, auf der Landoberfläche und in den Tropen. Es wird erwartet, dass dies unter anderem zu einer verbesserten Vorhersage von Extremereignissen wie Stürmen und Dürren beitragen kann. Diese wissenschaftliche Arbeit plant deshalb eine vermehrte Zusammenarbeit mit Nutzern dieser Wetterinformationen, z.B. in der Forschung, beim Bund, in der Öffentlichkeit und in der Industrie.

 

 

 

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 05.06.2017

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Domeisen Daniela I.V. (2019), Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(6), 3180-3194.
Nonlinearity in the North Pacific Atmospheric Response to a Linear ENSO Forcing
Jiménez-Esteve B., Domeisen D. I. V. (2019), Nonlinearity in the North Pacific Atmospheric Response to a Linear ENSO Forcing, in Geophysical Research Letters, 46(4), 2271-2281.
Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere
ButlerAmy H. (2019), Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere, in Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, 223 - 241.
The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California
Wengel Christian, Bayr Tobias, Domeisen Daniela (2019), The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California, in Climate Dynamics, in press.
The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere
Domeisen Daniela I.V., Garfinkel Chaim I., Butler Amy H. (2019), The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, in Reviews of Geophysics, 57(1), 5-47.
Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?
Garfinkel Chaim I., Schwartz Chen, Butler Amy H., Domeisen Daniela I.V., Son Seok-Woo, White Ian P. (2019), Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?, in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(14), 7683-7696.
The Tropospheric Pathway of the ENSO–North Atlantic Teleconnection
Jiménez-Esteve Bernat, Domeisen Daniela I. V. (2018), The Tropospheric Pathway of the ENSO–North Atlantic Teleconnection, in Journal of Climate, 31(11), 4563-4584.
Improved Teleconnection-Based Dynamical Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter
Dobrynin Mikhail, Domeisen Daniela I. V., Müller Wolfgang A., Bell Louisa, Brune Sebastian, Bunzel Felix, Düsterhus André, Fröhlich Kristina, Pohlmann Holger, Baehr Johanna (2018), Improved Teleconnection-Based Dynamical Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter, in Geophysical Research Letters, 45(8), 3605-3614.
Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed
Domeisen Daniela I. V., Martius Olivia, Jiménez-Esteve Bernat (2018), Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed, in Geophysical Research Letters, 45(4), 2064-2071.
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
Domeisen Daniela I. V., Badin Gualtiero, Koszalka Inga M. (2018), How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere, in Journal of Climate, 31(3), 997-1014.
Extratropical atmospheric predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in subseasonal forecast models
Garfinkel Chaim I., Schwartz Chen, Domeisen Daniela I.V., Son Seok-Woo, Butler Amy H. (2018), Extratropical atmospheric predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in subseasonal forecast models, in Journal of Geophysical Research.
The vertical structure of annular modes
Sheshadri Aditi, Plumb R.A., Lindgren E.A., Domeisen D.I.V. (2018), The vertical structure of annular modes, in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 3507 - 351.
Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern
Wulff C. Ole, Greatbatch Richard J., Domeisen Daniela I. V., Gollan Gereon, Hansen Felicitas (2017), Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern, in Geophysical Research Letters, 44(21), 11,166-11,173.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Universität Bern Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Max Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
University of New South Wales Australia (Oceania)
- Publication
GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Cornell University United States of America (North America)
- Publication
CNRS France (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Massachusetts Institute of Technology United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
University of Exeter Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- Publication
MarexSpectron Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
NOAA United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
WHOI United States of America (North America)
- Publication
Hebrew University Israel (Asia)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
GFZ Potsdam Germany (Europe)
- Publication
Strathclyde University Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Stockholm University Sweden (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Meteomatics Switzerland (Europe)
- Exchange of personnel
- Industry/business/other use-inspired collaboration
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Tel Aviv University Israel (Asia)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Reading University Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Hochschule Düsseldorf Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Exchange of personnel
Deutscher Wetterdienst Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Stanford University United States of America (North America)
- Publication
Universität Hamburg Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Environment and Climate Change Canada Canada (North America)
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Kolloquium, GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel Individual talk The challenges of weekly to monthly weather prediction over Europe 01.07.2019 Kiel, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Universitaet Koeln Individual talk Heat wave or cold air outbreak? On the predictability of our weather on weekly to monthly timescales 24.06.2019 Koeln, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
D-USYS Conference Talk given at a conference Heat wave or cold air outbreak? On the predictability of our weather on weekly to monthly timescales 05.06.2019 Davos, Switzerland Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Universitaet Bonn Individual talk Recent advances in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction: The role of the stratosphere 15.04.2019 Bonn, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Universitaet Wien Individual talk The dynamics of stratosphere - troposphere coupling: Consequences for long-range weather forecasting over Europe 09.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events from Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference Investigating the asymmetric response of the North Atlantic and Pacific storm track to stratospheric forcing 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster Seasonal forecasts of sudden stratospheric warming and their role in surface predictability 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster Nonlinearity in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to a linear ENSO forcing 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela; Jiménez Esteve Bernat;
EGU 2019 Poster Addressing preconditions for cold air outbreaks with ensemble subsampling technique 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 PICO session Talk given at a conference Large-scale flow leading to precipitation in the Peruvian Altiplano 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference Subseasonal Prediction of European Summer Heat Waves in the S2S Hindcast Ensembles 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela; Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
EGU 2019 Talk given at a conference The role of the stratosphere in S2S prediction using the S2S database 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster Influence of the Tropical Atlantic on the North Atlantic-ENSO Teleconnection 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
EGU 2019 Poster Predictability of the Stratosphere and Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling in the S2S models 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
ECMWF workshop on predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles Talk given at a conference Subseasonal Prediction of European Extreme Temperature Events in S2S hindcasts 04.04.2019 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
DACH 2019 Talk given at a conference Vorhersage von Wetter bis Klima mit Hilfe von dynamischen Kopplungen im Klimasystem 19.03.2019 Garmisch, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Seminar talk MPI for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany: Individual talk Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Temperature Events in Europe 12.02.2019 Hamburg, Germany Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
Kolloquium, Freie Universitaet Berlin Individual talk Longterm weather predictions for Europe using remote effects from the stratosphere and the tropics 11.02.2019 Berlin, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Seminarvortrag, Stanford University Individual talk Using remote connections in the climate system to improve sub-seasonal weather forecasts 18.01.2019 Stanford University, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, UCLA Individual talk Using remote connections in the climate system to improve sub-seasonal weather forecasts 15.01.2019 L.A., United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
Annual Meeting 2019, American Meteorological Society Poster Rossby wave propagation into the stratosphere: The role of zonal phase speed 07.01.2019 Phoenix, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
Annual Meeting 2019, American Meteorological Society Individual talk The role of the stratosphere in predictability and long-term variability 07.01.2019 Phoenix, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2018 Poster Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed 14.12.2018 Washington, D.C., United States of America Jiménez Esteve Bernat; Domeisen Daniela;
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2018 Poster The ENSO- North Atlantic Teleconnection: Interaction between the Stratosphere and the Strength of the Tropical Forcing 14.12.2018 Washington D.C., United States of America Jiménez Esteve Bernat;
Kolloquium, Universitaet Innsbruck Individual talk Predicting the weather in Europe on timescales of weeks to months 12.12.2018 Innsbruck, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
3 Cluster Conference “Ocean – Climate – Sustainability Research Frontiers” Talk given at a conference Weather and Climate Prediction from Weeks to Decades 22.10.2018 Berlin, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
WMO Joint WGNE / PDEF Workshop Talk given at a conference The role of the stratosphere in sub-seasonal to seasonal variability and predictability: A report from the SPARC community 09.10.2018 Tokyo, Japan Domeisen Daniela;
SPARC General Assembly Poster The predictability of polar jet oscillation events and their surface impact 04.10.2018 Kyoto, Japan Domeisen Daniela;
SPARC General Assembly Talk given at a conference Weather and Climate Prediction from Weeks to Decades: Where do we stand? 02.10.2018 Kyoto, Japan Domeisen Daniela;
Second International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S); Talk given at a conference Subseasonal Prediction of Heat Waves 18.09.2018 Boulder CO, United States of America Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
International Conference on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction Talk given at a conference The role of stratosphere - troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction using the S2S database 17.09.2018 Boulder, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
POLAR2018 Talk given at a conference Stratospheric Polar Jet Oscillations and their Surface Predictability 21.06.2018 Davos, Switzerland Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, LMU Muenchen Individual talk Sub-seasonal to seasonal atmospheric predictability arising from remote connections in the climate system 29.05.2018 Muenchen, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Individual talk Sub-seasonal to seasonal atmospheric predictability arising from remote connections in the climate system 29.05.2018 Muenchen, Germany Domeisen Daniela;
Cryospheric Extremes Workshop Talk given at a conference Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of the Arctic 27.04.2018 Helsinki, Finland Domeisen Daniela;
European Geophysical Union Poster Rossby wave propagation into the stratosphere: The role of zonal phase speed 12.04.2018 Wien, Austria Domeisen Daniela;
European Geophysical Union Talk given at a conference Sub-seasonal prediction of the 2003 European summer heat wave 10.04.2018 Wien, Austria Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
European Geophysical Union Poster Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern 09.04.2018 Wien, Austria Wulff Christoph Ole Wilhelm;
European Geophysical Union Talk given at a conference The Tropospheric Pathway of the ENSO-North Atlantic Teleconnection 09.04.2018 Wien, Austria Jiménez Esteve Bernat;
Swiss Polar Day Talk given at a conference Improved Predictions for the Arctic and Connections to the Midlatitudes 04.04.2018 Zurich, Switzerland Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Harvard University Individual talk Remote connections in the climate system: Mechanisms, impacts, and long-term predictability 29.03.2018 Cambridge, MA, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, Yale University Individual talk The dynamics of stratosphere – troposphere coupling A hierarchy of complexity 09.03.2018 New Haven, CT, United States of America Domeisen Daniela;
Arctic Circle Assembly Individual talk Improved Predictions for the Arctic and Connections to the Midlatitudes 13.10.2017 Reykjavik, Iceland Domeisen Daniela;
Kolloquium, University of Bergen Individual talk Zonal phase speed, wave propagation into the stratosphere, and atmospheric blocking 24.08.2017 Bergen, Norway Domeisen Daniela;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
EGU 2019 session "ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling" 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria
EGU 2019 session "Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: meteorology and impacts" 07.04.2019 Wien, Austria
EGU 2018 session "Climate Services - Underpinning Science" 08.04.2018 Wien, Austria
EGU 2018 session "Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: meteorology and impacts" 08.04.2018 Wien, Austria

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Am Ursprung der Kälte Frankfurter Sonntagszeitung German-speaking Switzerland International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Die Klimaforscherin in der Hochschullehre Perspektiven "Physik" German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Die Sommer-Prognose im Faktencheck Sueddeutsche Zeitung / Zeit online International German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Ein Kollaps des Polarwirbels bringt den USA arktische Kälte NZZ German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Prognose für den Winter schlingert Tagesanzeiger German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media The day after tomorrow ETH Globe German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Warming in the stratosphere leads to cold winters ETH News International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Weshalb die Warnungen vor einem neuen extremen Sommer heisse Luft sind NZZ German-speaking Switzerland 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Wetter: Frühling schon im Februar Spektrum der Wissenschaft German-speaking Switzerland International 2019
Media relations: print media, online media Das Ende der Trockenheit könnte voraussagbar sein NZZ German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Die Kälte nach dem Kollaps NZZ German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: radio, television Dieser Winter kommt spät… SWR aktuell International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Eiskalte Luft aus der Arktis erreicht Europa NZZ am Sonntag German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Print (books, brochures, leaflets) Filme für die Erde: Film Festival Magazine 2018: „Fragen zum Klimawandel in der Schweiz” German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Talks/events/exhibitions Ist unser Wetter hausgemacht? Globale Akteure in der langfristigen Vorhersage German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: radio, television Kompakt am Abend Radio 1 German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Professorin mit guten Aussichten Schweizer Illustrierte German-speaking Switzerland 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Twitter Twitter International 2018
Talks/events/exhibitions Career after your PhD International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media CyberMentor Online Mentoring for girls in STEM International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Smoking mountain slope Featured Contribution on GeoLog, the official blog of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Wie der Pazifische Ozean unser Wetter beeinflusst Wissenschaftsjahr "Meere und Ozeane" International 2017

Awards

Title Year
Young Scientist Travel Awards (YSTAs) (https://www.emetsoc.org/awards/award-category/young-scientist-travel-awards/) to go to the EMS annual meeting in Copenhagen (9-13th September 2019). Registration fee wavier and 300 euros for trip and accommodation expenses. 2019
EGU travel grant 2018
EGU travel grant 2018
eingeladene Mitgliedschaft bei AcademiaNet 2017

Abstract

Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather predictions, covering the timescale of a few weeks to several months, are of crucial importance for decision making, e.g. for the harvest of agricultural products and for setting the price of renewable energy. One reason for the low skill lies in the inherent difficulty to predict atmospheric variability in the range between short-term weather prediction (up to about 15 days), where initial conditions are a major factor, and long-term prediction (years to decades), where boundary conditions such as the ocean exert their major influence on the atmosphere. However, prediction is a seamless problem, and all timescales exhibit phenomena in the Earth system that contribute to predictability: The processes that contribute to predictability at S2S timescales are however still not sufficiently understood, leading to a model prediction skill that is often too low for decision making. Due to the complexity of the problem, there has been a lack of attention to the time window of S2S prediction over the past decades. Only very recently has the low skill in S2S prediction come to the attention of the national weather services, and efforts have been started to publicly provide suitable model data for the international research community to start tackling these issues. The proposed research work aims to contribute to the global effort of evaluating possible predictors on S2S timescales by making use of the newly available data. The proposed research will focus on the North Atlantic / Europe region and analyze predictors ranging from the stratosphere to the land surface. A statistical forecasting tool will be developed for specific applications motivated by stakeholders. The overall goal is to develop a strong contribution to the international effort of understanding S2S variability and thereby improving S2S forecasts and their use in research, government, and industry.
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