Project

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SCODA - Scaling from individual interactions to community dynamics in avian assemblages

Applicant Zurell Damaris
Number 168136
Funding scheme Ambizione
Research institution Swiss Federal Research Inst. WSL Direktion
Institution of higher education Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research - WSL
Main discipline Ecology
Start/End 01.10.2016 - 30.09.2018
Approved amount 322'949.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Ecology
Environmental Research

Keywords (9)

birds; community ecology; functional traits; Bayesian statistics; biotic interactions; environmental niche; joint species distribution models; climate change; virtual ecologist approach

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Das Projekt SCODA testet und erweitert neuartige Biodiversitätsmodelle, um den relativen Einfluss von Umweltfaktoren (wie Klima und Landnutzung) und interspezifischen Interaktionen auf die Verbreitung von Arten und Artengemeinschaften zu quantifizieren. Anhand empirischer und simulierter Daten von Vogelgemeinschaften wird die Skalenabhängigkeit interspezifischer Interaktionen untersucht, deren raumzeitliche Variabilität, und deren Abhängigkeit von funktionalen Arteigenschaften. Dies soll zu neuen theoretischen Erkenntnissen sowie verbesserten Vorhersagen unter globalem Umweltwandel führen.
Lay summary

Inhalt und Ziel des Forschungsprojekts

Quantitative Biodiversitätsmodelle stellen eine wichtige Stütze dar, um potentielle Gefährdungen für Arten und Artengemeinschaften durch Klima- und Landschaftswandel abzuschätzen.  Bislang fokussierten diese Modelle jedoch zu stark auf äussere Umweltfaktoren und liessen die komplexen zwischenartlichen Wechselwirkungen zumeist ausser Acht. SCODA widmet sich der Fortentwicklung neuartiger Modelle, welche beide Faktoren berücksichtigen. Am Beispiel von Vogelgemeinschaften und theoretischer Analysen wird gezielt untersucht wie lokale Interaktionen zwischen Individuen die Verbreitungsgrenzen von Arten und deren Abundanz beeinflussen und wie variabel diese raumzeitlich sind. Dies liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse über mögliche Veränderungen komplexer Artengemeinschaften unter globalen Umweltwandel.

 

Wissenschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Kontext des Forschungsprojekts

SCODA wird mithilfe theoretischer und konzeptioneller Fortschritte die wissenschaftlichen Grundlagen für modellgestützte Biodiversitätsanalysen verbessern, die Zuverlässigkeit der Vorhersagen erhöhen sowie praktische Leitfäden für die Anwendung von Biodiversitätsmodellen definieren.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 31.08.2016

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions
Rogers Haldre S, Beckman Noelle G, Hartig Florian, Johnson Jeremy S, Pufal Gesine, Shea Katriona, Zurell Damaris, Bullock James M, Cantrell Robert Stephen, Loiselle Bette, Pejchar Liba, Razafindratsima Onja H, Sandor Manette E, Schupp Eugene W, Strickland W Christopher, Zambrano Jenny (2019), The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions, in AoB PLANTS, 11(5), plz042.
Testing species assemblage predictions from stacked and joint species distribution models
Zurell Damaris, Zimmermann Niklaus E., Gross Helge, Baltensweiler Andri, Sattler Thomas, Wüest Rafael O. (2019), Testing species assemblage predictions from stacked and joint species distribution models, in Journal of Biogeography, 47(1), 101-113.
Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change
Johnson Jeremy S, Cantrell Robert Stephen, Cosner Chris, Hartig Florian, Hastings Alan, Rogers Haldre S, Schupp Eugene W, Shea Katriona, Teller Brittany J, Yu Xiao, Zurell Damaris, Pufal Gesine (2019), Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change, in AoB PLANTS, 11(3), plz020.
Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation
Aslan Clare, Beckman Noelle G, Rogers Haldre S, Bronstein Judie, Zurell Damaris, Hartig Florian, Shea Katriona, Pejchar Liba, Neubert Mike, Poulsen John, HilleRisLambers Janneke, Miriti Maria, Loiselle Bette, Effiom Edu, Zambrano Jenny, Schupp Geno, Pufal Gesine, Johnson Jeremy, Bullock James M, Brodie Jedediah, Bruna Emilio, Cantrell Robert Stephen, Decker Robin, Fricke Evan, et al. (2019), Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation, in AoB PLANTS, 11(2), plz006.
Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models
Yates Katherine L., Bouchet Phil J., Caley M. Julian, Mengersen Kerrie, Randin Christophe F., Parnell Stephen, Fielding Alan H., Bamford Andrew J., Ban Stephen, Barbosa A. Márcia, Dormann Carsten F., Elith Jane, Embling Clare B., Ervin Gary N., Fisher Rebecca, Gould Susan, Graf Roland F., Gregr Edward J., Halpin Patrick N., Heikkinen Risto K., Heinänen Stefan, Jones Alice R., Krishnakumar Periyadan K., Lauria Valentina, et al. (2018), Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models, in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), 790-802.
Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interactions from co-occurrence data in homogenous environments?
Zurell Damaris, Pollock Laura J., Thuiller Wilfried (2018), Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interactions from co-occurrence data in homogenous environments?, in Ecography, 41(11), 1812-1819.
Do long-distance migratory birds track their niche through seasons?
Zurell Damaris, Gallien Laure, Graham Catherine H, Zimmermann Niklaus E (2018), Do long-distance migratory birds track their niche through seasons?, in Journal of Biogeograpgy, 45(7), 1459-1468.
Frequency and intensity of facilitation reveal opposing patterns along a stress gradient
Gallien Laure, Zurell Damaris, Zimmermann Niklaus E. (2018), Frequency and intensity of facilitation reveal opposing patterns along a stress gradient, in Ecology and Evolution, 8(4), 2171-2181.
Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change
Zurell Damaris, Graham Catherine H., Gallien Laure, Thuiller Wilfried, Zimmermann Niklaus E. (2018), Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change, in Nature Climate Change, 8, 992-996.
sOAR: A tool for modelling optimal animal life-history strategies in cyclic environments
Schäfer Merlin, Menz Stephan, Jeltsch Florian, Zurell Damaris (2018), sOAR: A tool for modelling optimal animal life-history strategies in cyclic environments, in Ecography, 41(3), 551-557.
Integrating demography, dispersal and interspecific interactions into bird distribution models
Zurell Damaris (2017), Integrating demography, dispersal and interspecific interactions into bird distribution models, in Journal of Avian Biology, 48(12), 1505-1516.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Swiss Ornithological Institute Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
BioMove Symposium 2018 Talk given at a conference Double jeopardy - Long-distance migratory birds face multiple risks from global change 27.09.2018 Potsdam, Germany Zurell Damaris;
Workshop on joint species distribution models Talk given at a conference Species assemblage predictions from stacked and joint species distribution models within the SESAM framework 30.07.2018 Grenoble, France Groß Helge; Zurell Damaris;
Workshop on joint species distribution models Talk given at a conference Do JSDMs reliably detect interspecific interactions in homogenous environments? 30.07.2018 Grenoble, France Zurell Damaris;
Seminar Instiute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) Individual talk Towards improved biodiversity forecasts 07.03.2018 Berlin, Germany Zurell Damaris;
Ecology across borders - joint annual meeting of BES (British Ecological Society), NecoV (Netherland Ecological Society), GfÖ (Ecological Society of Germany, Switzerland and Austria) Talk given at a conference Why everybody should have a virtual ecologist 14.12.2017 Ghent, Belgium Zurell Damaris;
Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Predicting species range dynamics: strengths and weaknesses of simple to complex models 08.08.2017 Portland, United States of America Zurell Damaris;
Seminar ZSL Institute of Zoology Individual talk Predicting species range dynamics: where to go from here? 08.06.2017 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Zurell Damaris;
Special Interest Group on Computation Ecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland Talk given at a conference Improving predictions of biodiversity dynamics 18.05.2017 Göttingen, Germany Zurell Damaris;
Annual Meetingof the Specialist Group on Macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (GfÖ) Talk given at a conference Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interaction mechanisms at different scales? 21.04.2017 Wien, Austria Zurell Damaris;
Seminar Computational and Theoretical Biology Individual talk Integrating demography, dispersal and interspecific interactions into biodiversity models 18.04.2017 Würzburg, Germany Zurell Damaris;
Symposium on Ecological Modelling Individual talk Improving predictions of biodiversity dynamics 13.03.2017 Zürich, Switzerland Zurell Damaris;
Biennial Conference of the International Biogeography Society Poster Climate change may threaten size and connectivity of seasonal ranges in migratory birds 10.01.2017 Tucson, United States of America Zurell Damaris;
British Ecological Society Annual Meeting 2016 Talk given at a conference Predicting species range dynamics: a benchmark test of current data-driven approaches 13.12.2016 Liverpool, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Zurell Damaris;


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media In Verzug oder zügig weg: Das veränderte Klima beeinflusst den Vogelzug SonntagsZeitung German-speaking Switzerland 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Les oiseaux migrateurs menaces par le changement climatique Le Monde International 2018
Media relations: print media, online media Zugvögel erkennen die Welt nicht wieder Tagesanzeiger German-speaking Switzerland 2018

Abstract

Biodiversity loss due to global environmental change is expected to increase rapidly throughout the 21st century posing a major challenge to nature conservation and society. In order to anticipate and mitigate negative impacts on ecosystem functions and services, models are needed that reliably depict the abiotic and biotic drivers that determine species and community response to environmental change. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used in this context, but remain criticised for only implicitly accounting for interspecific interactions and for not being able to properly disentangle the fundamental and realised niche of a species. Recently, new tools have been introduced that integrate SDMs with community ecological methods of co-occurrence analyses. So-called joint species distribution models (JSDMs) simultaneously estimate the distribution of multiple species and allow partitioning species co-occurrence patterns into species-specific environmental responses and residual correlations between species, which may result from interspecific interactions but also from unmeasured environmental factors. JSDMs provide an exciting development in macroecology and community ecology, but are still in its infancy with few available applications and without rigorous evaluation. Important questions remain regarding, for example, the scale dependence and spatiotemporal variation in interspecific interaction mechanisms and their effect on JSDM performance, the specific data needed for reliably identifying these mechanisms, and the applicability of JSDMs for climate impact assessments.This project will focus on Swiss avian communities and aims at: (1) evaluating the ability of JSDMs to detect and reliably quantify different interspecific interaction mechanisms, and to predict avian communities under scenarios of climate change; (2) evaluating the scale dependence of interspecific interaction processes in avian assemblages and their relation to functional traits; (3) assessing the extent of spatial and temporal variation in interspecific interactions for selected bird assemblages; and (4) incorporating trait information into JSDMs to understand how behavioural syndromes mediate interspecific interactions in birds. To achieve these goals, the project will make use of the extensive bird monitoring programmes of Switzerland, supplemented by targeted simulation experiments that allow testing the models against specific underlying assumptions. The project is expected to provide both theoretical and conceptual advancements in model-based predictions of species range and community changes by explicitly studying the link between local scale biotic interactions and large-scale avian community patterns, and by combining extensive empirical and theoretical analyses to define practical requirements and guidelines for the implementation of community assemblage predictions. Moreover, it will help understanding the complexities of Swiss avian assemblages and help anticipating potential environmental change-induced changes to Swiss avian diversity.
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