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CompMig: Extension and comparison of tree species migration models and Europe-wide simulations in the Holocene

English title CompMig: Extension and comparison of tree species migration models and Europe-wide simulations in the Holocene
Applicant Lischke Heike
Number 163223
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Swiss Federal Research Inst. WSL Direktion
Institution of higher education Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research - WSL
Main discipline Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences
Start/End 01.03.2016 - 28.02.2019
Approved amount 190'576.00
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All Disciplines (4)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Environmental Sciences
Environmental Research
Forest Engineering
Ecology

Keywords (5)

modeling; tree species migration; Model coupling; Holocene; model comparison

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Im Rahmen einer Simulationsstudie wird das dynamische Vegetationsmodel LPJ-GUESS weiterentwickelt. Es werden verschiedene Ansätze implementiert, die eine Simulation der Migration von Bäumen erlauben, und die Studie wird klären welcher Simulationsansatz optimal ist.
Lay summary

Hintergrund

Die heutige Artenzusammensetzung in unserer Landschaft ist davon abhängig, inwiefern Arten in der Lage waren, sich entweder an Klima und Landnutzungsänderungen anzupassen, oder in andere Gebiete zu migrieren, in denen die Bedingungen sich zu Gunsten der Art verändert hatten.  Die häufig benutzten synamische Vegetationsmodelle,  die die Veränderung der Vegetation  mit einer Kombination von Umweltabhängigkeiten, physiologischen  Prozessen  und der Dynamik der ganzen  Vegetation beschreiben,  berücksichtigen diese Migration bislang nicht. Sie nehmen statt dessen an, dass alle Arten zu jeder Zeit überall „vor Ort“ sind. Besonders  um die Artenzusammensetzung in einem veränderten Klima vorherzusagen, ist es aber nicht nur wichtig, die Klimaänderung und die Klimaansprüche der Arten zu kennen, sondern auch zu simulieren, wie die Arten in neue Standorte gelangen. Diesen Mangel in den dynamischen Vegetationsmodellen wollen wir in unserer Studie beheben.

Ziel

Das Ziel ist, ein Modul innerhalb des dynamischen Vegetationsmodells LPJ-GUESS zu entwickeln welches in der Lage ist, die Migration von Baumarten realistisch zu simulieren. Dieses Migrations-Modul soll anhand von Simulationen  und Pollen-Daten der Baumarten-Migration (zum Beispiel der Buche) nach der letzten Eiszeit bis heute überprüft werden. In einer anderen Studie soll das Modell angewandt werden, um abzuschätzen,  inwiefern eine eingeschränkte Migrationsfähigkeit ein Hindernis für Arten sein kann sich an den Klimawandel anzupassen.

Bedeutung

Da Migration ein wesentlicher Prozess ist, der die Artenzusammensetzung einer jeden natürlichen Pflanzengesellschaft bestimmt, war es lange überfällig ein zuverlässiges Modell zu entwickeln, welches diesen Prozess berücksichtigt. Insbesondere da viele Entscheidungen im Hinblick auf eine Mitigation des Klimawandels anhand von Vegetationsmodellen getroffen werden, kann dieses Modul weniger unsichere Projektion der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels ermöglichen.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 23.08.2016

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
LPJ-GM 1.0: simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model
Lehsten Veiko, Mischurow Michael, Lindström Erik, Lehsten Dörte, Lischke Heike (2019), LPJ-GM 1.0: simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model, in Geoscientific Model Development, 12(3), 893-908.

Datasets

Migration simulations FFTM no corridors

Author Lehsten, Veiko
Publication date 04.03.2019
Persistent Identifier (PID) doi:10.18161/migration_lehsten_2018
Repository DataGURU
Abstract
FFTM no corridorsMigration simulations in the virtual landscape demonstrating the two algorithms FFTM and SMSM presented in:LPJ-GM 1.0: Simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model by Veiko Lehsten, Michael Mischurow, Erik Lindström, Dörte Lehsten, and Heike Lischke

Seed dispersal

Author Lehsten, Veiko; Lischke, Heike
Publication date 04.03.2019
Persistent Identifier (PID) doi:10.18161/seed_disp_code_2018
Repository DataGURU
Abstract
This file contains the Matlab code for the supplementary material to LPJ-GM 1.0: Simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model. Code for the supplementary material for LPJ-GM 1.0: Simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Dirk Karger, Michael Nobis, Dynamische Makroökologie, WSL Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
COST Aktion PROFOUND FP1304, und Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Mountain Forest Ecology; ETHZ Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
Mathematical statistics/Univ. Lund Sweden (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Ben Smith, Martin Sykes, LPJ-community, Dept. of Physical Geography and ecosystem science (INES) Sweden (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Research Infrastructure
Department of Earth Sciences, Univ. Gothenburg, Deliang Chen Sweden (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Research Infrastructure
Thomas Hickler, BiK-F, Frankfurt Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
3. round table discussion developments in forest modelling Talk given at a conference Do we need "simple" models? A provocation 04.04.2019 Leipzig, Germany Lischke Heike;
MERGE (Modelling the Regional and Global Earth System) meeting Talk given at a conference Tree migration over the Holocene in the real world and in DGVMs 08.11.2018 Lund, Sweden Lehsten Veiko;


Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
153544 FORHYCS: FORest and HYdrology Change in Switzerland - a simulation study 01.06.2014 Project funding (Div. I-III)
182609 EXTRAS: Extending dynamic vegetation models to simulate non-tree species invasions and range shifts 01.09.2019 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

Global, i.e. land use and climate change may lead to an imbalance between tree species occurrence and habitat suitability that alters species' performance and interactions on all spatial and temporal scales. The most vulnerable species can get extinct, and species diversity can decrease. Community structures and species distributions will change. This may have an impact on the carbon cycle, on feedbacks to the climate system by albedo or surface roughness, and on other EGS, such as timber production or protection against natural hazards.One way species can respond to a spatial shift of their suitable habitat is by migration. Migration speed depends on seed production, seed dispersal distances, and therefore on environmental conditions with biotic and abiotic drivers affecting the success of the species’ populations and the conditions of the migrational path, i.e. negatively by unsuitable environment, barriers, and antagonists, but also positively by enhancing vectors or corridors with suitable environments. If species migrate slower than their suitable habitats shifts, their migration will not be in equilibrium with the changing conditions. These complex characteristics of migration make an analysis only of data (e.g. paleo-data) and experiments difficult and require the use of dynamic models. Such models should take into account various environmental conditions and vegetation processes at the same time: landscape configuration, environmental drivers, ecophysiological and demographic processes influencing the population dynamics, and interactions between and within species. Furthermore, the models should be applicable on the scales of interest, e.g. from landscape to continental scale.Several existing models describing tree species migration - of different complexity and on different scales - focus on parts of this list, neglecting others. Species distribution models, e.g., consider mainly the environmental influences. Simple dispersal models with or without population densities of the migrators neglect species interactions. Forest landscape models are restricted to comparably small extent. DGVMs (dynamic global vegetation models) cover all other aspects but miss a working implementation of dispersal within the large grid cells. t is unclear, which level of model complexity is needed to simulate migration reliably.In the CompMig project we plan to provide improved tree species migration models, which comprise all important elements and are suitable to be applied over Europe. We then will compare simulations with these new models to those of already existing ones to assess which level of complexity is required on the different scales. More specifically, we plan to…1.… extend the DGVM LPJ-GUESS (Hickler et al., 2012; Smith et al., 2001) a. by combining it in a post-processing step with the single species migration model KISSMig (Nobis and Normand, 2014); b.by including dispersal direct into the DGVM on a larger resolution, taking into account within-grid-cell dispersal and landscape heterogeneity;2.… test these new approaches and several of the existing models/model-hybrids in simulations of the Holocene tree species migration in Europe to assess in which situations which approaches are most suitable.
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