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Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious disease Control (EpideMMIC)

English title Epidemiology and mathematical modelling for infectious disease control (EpideMMIC)
Applicant Low Nicola Minling
Number 160320
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Institut für Sozial- und Präventivmedizin Universität Bern
Institution of higher education University of Berne - BE
Main discipline Methods of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Start/End 01.08.2015 - 30.11.2018
Approved amount 474'000.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Methods of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Infectious Diseases
Public Health and Health Services

Keywords (7)

Antimicrobial resistance; sexually transmitted infections; chlamydia infections; Human papillomavirus; Mycoplasma genitalium; infection disease dynamics; prevention

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
EpideMMIC (Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Disease Control)
Lay summary
Sexuell übertragbare Infektionen (STI) kommen bei jungen Erwachsenen häufig vor. Faktoren wie die zunehmende Verbreitung bakterieller Resistenzen gegenüber Antibiotika sowie von HIV-Infektionen könnten die Ausbreitung bzw. die Auswirkungen von STI verstärken. Andererseits könnten neue diagnostische Tests, Vorsorgeuntersuchungen und Impfungen zur Eindämmung der STI beitragen. Im EpideMMIC-Projekt (Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious disease Control) sollen mithilfe komplexer statistischer und mathematischer Modellierungsmethoden und mit Daten aus epidemiologischen Studien drei Beispiele für STI und Interventionen zu deren Beherrschung untersucht werden. Ziel 1, Chlamydia-Infektionen: Wir werden anhand von Daten aus Großbritannien und Australien die Faktoren untersuchen, die die verschiedenartigen Einflüsse von Chlamydia-Reihenuntersuchungen auf die Prävalenz von Chlamydia-Infektionen ausüben. Ziel 2, Mycoplasma genitalium: Wir werden anhand von Daten aus publizierten systematischen Übersichtsarbeiten untersuchen, wie eine schnellere Diagnosestellung und individuell angepasste Antibiotikatherapie die Ausbreitung der Resistenzentwicklung bei den Erregern dieser STI verlangsamen könnten. Ziel 3, humanes Papillomavirus (HPV): Männer, die Sex mit Männern haben, unterliegen einem erhöhten Risiko für Enddarmkrebs. Wir werden anhand von Daten aus der Schweiz untersuchen, wie Impfungen gegen HPV das Risiko für Enddarmkrebs bei Männern mit und ohne HIV-Infektion verringern könnten. Das EpideMMIC-Projekt läuft von August 2015 bis Juli 2018. Wir erwarten von dem Projekt Fortschritte bei der Methodologie, Informationen zur Unterstützung öffentlicher Gesundheitsförderungsmaßnahmen im Kampf gegen STI in der Schweiz sowie berufliche Förderung für Forscher auf dem Gebiet der Epidemiologie von Infektionskrankheiten.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 21.07.2015

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Age difference between heterosexual partners in Britain: Implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis
Smid Joost H., Garcia Victor, Low Nicola, Mercer Catherine H., Althaus Christian L. (2018), Age difference between heterosexual partners in Britain: Implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis, in Epidemics, 24, 60-66.
De novo mutations drive the spread of macrolide resistant Mycoplasma genitalium: mathematical modelling study
Cadosch D Garcia V Althaus CL Jensen JS Low N (2018), De novo mutations drive the spread of macrolide resistant Mycoplasma genitalium: mathematical modelling study, in bioRxiv, 1-25.
Changes in chlamydia prevalence over time: how to observe the unobserved
Low N Smid JH (2018), Changes in chlamydia prevalence over time: how to observe the unobserved, in Lancet Public Health, 1-2.
Mycoplasma genitalium incidence, persistence, concordance between partners and progression: systematic review and meta-analysis
CinaManuel, Baumann Lukas, Egli-GanyDianne, HalbeisenFlorian, Hammad Ali, ScottPippa, LowNicola, Mycoplasma genitalium incidence, persistence, concordance between partners and progression: systematic review and meta-analysis, in Sexually Transmitted Infections.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Dr. Mirjam Kretzschmar, National Institute of Public Health (RIVM) Netherlands (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
Dr. Catherine Mercer, University College London Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
Dr. Björn Herrmann, Uppsala University Sweden (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
IDDconf 2018 Talk given at a conference Modelling the spread and decline of the new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis in Sweden 03.09.2018 Ambleside, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Smid Joost;
Epidemics6 - International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics Poster Immunity against reinfection and increased testing of uninfected individuals limited the impact of screening on reducing chlamydia transmission in England 29.11.2017 Sitges, Spain Smid Joost; Low Nicola Minling;
Epidemics6 - International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics Poster Inadequate treatment accelerates the spread of macrolide resistance in Mycoplasma genitalium 29.11.2017 Sitges, Spain Low Nicola Minling; Garcia Victor; Cadosch Dominique;
The International Society for Sexually Transmitted Diseases Research – World Congress 2017 Poster Age difference between heterosexual partners: implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis 09.07.2017 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Smid Joost; Garcia Victor; Low Nicola Minling;
Eighth Meeting of the European Society for Chlamydia Research Poster Age difference between heterosexual partners, its implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis and the impact of screening on age-specific prevalence 06.09.2016 Oxford, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Garcia Victor; Smid Joost; Low Nicola Minling;


Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
136737 Acute and chronic dynamics of HIV and HCV infections, within-host evolution and epidemiological outcomes 01.10.2011 Ambizione
170069 Zika virus: assessing causality and consequences of emerging infectious diseases 01.10.2016 Project funding (Div. I-III)
133960 Investigating the transmissibility and early dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis infections 01.11.2010 International Exploratory Workshops
124952 Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious disease Control (EpideMMIC) 01.04.2009 ProDoc
135654 Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious disease Control (EpideMMIC) 01.05.2011 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

BackgroundNew interventions are being developed to control sexually transmitted infections and antimicrobial resistance and existing interventions are being re-evaluated. GoalsThe overall goal of the Epidemiology and Mathematical Modelling for Infectious disease Control (EpideMMIC) project is to strengthen the integration of epidemiological, statistical and mathematical modelling methods for evaluating preventive interventions. Specific objectives focus on the following interventions: Objective 1, screening programmes for Chlamydia trachomatis; Objective 2, point-of-care tests to distinguish aetiologies of male urethritis and control antimicrobial resistant Mycoplasma genitalium; Objective 3, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies to prevent anal cancer. Methods of investigationObjective 1: We will evaluate new data about chlamydia prevalence and screening impact using two approaches, 1) a Bayesian inferential framework for a C. trachomatis transmission model using observational data from Great Britain and 2) compare two dynamic modelling frameworks using randomised controlled trial data from Australia. We then aim to apply the Bayesian framework to objectives 2 and 3. Objective 2: a dual infection model of C. trachomatis and M. genitalium transmission, incorporating resistant strains to investigate the impact on antimicrobial resistance of point-of-care aetiological diagnosis of male urethritis and detection of genetic resistance markers. Objective 3: a model that combines HPV transmission and anal disease progression to investigate male HPV vaccination strategies in men who have sex with men, taking into account HPV and HIV interactions.TimescaleApril 2015 to March 2018Importance and impactThe EpideMMIC project is important for its contributions in three areas. First, EpideMMIC project outputs have already contributed to public health decision making for infectious disease control both internationally and in Switzerland. The research themes that we propose now are both topical and important. Second, we will contribute to methodological advances through the development of a Bayesian inferential framework for age-structured transmission dynamic models for non-immunising infections. Third, the EpideMMIC project has a record of providing a stimulating environment to develop careers in infectious disease epidemiology and this proposal offers new opportunities for original research.
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