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Multiscale dynamics of dog rabies elimination

English title Multiscale dynamics of dog rabies elimination
Applicant Zinsstag Jakob
Number 160067
Funding scheme Project funding (Div. I-III)
Research institution Abt. öff. Gesundheitswesen und Epidemiologie Schweizerisches Tropen- und Public Health-Institut
Institution of higher education University of Basel - BS
Main discipline Methods of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Start/End 01.08.2015 - 30.04.2019
Approved amount 493'745.00
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All Disciplines (3)

Discipline
Methods of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Mathematics
Veterinary Medicine

Keywords (6)

Transmission dynamics; Metapopulation model; Rabies elimination; Mass vaccination; Machine learning; Contact network model

Lay Summary (French)

Lead
Vers une science de l’élimination de la rage: La vaccination de masse des chiens contre la rage n’est pas seulement un problème opérationnel, mais nécessite une approche scientifique rigoureuse pour optimiser l’utilisation de ressources rares et pour interrompre la transmission de la manière la plus efficace. A travers un partenariat entre des chercheurs tchadiens et suisses de méthodes mathématiques et immunologiques seront utilisés sur des donnés collectés lors d’une campagne d’élimination de la rage canine à N’Djaména au Tchad. Ceci permettra d’informer sur les meilleures approches pour l’élimination de la rage canine en Afrique et en Asie.
Lay summary

Une approche multi-échelle à l’élimination de la rage

La rage est une maladie virale qui est le plus souvent transmis par une morsure animale. Bien que la rage de la faune sauvage ait été éliminé en Suisse et en Europe de l’Ouest par la vaccination orale des renards, la rage transmise par des chiens persiste en Asie et en Afrique. La plupart des morts de la rage surviennent dans les pays en développement tropicaux avec environ 55'000 morts par an. La vaccination de masse des chiens contre la rage n’est pas seulement un problème opérationnel, mais nécessite une approche scientifique rigoureuse pour optimiser l’utilisation de ressources rares pour interrompre la transmission de la manière la plus efficace. En 2012 et 2013, nous avons vacciné 18200 et 20000 chiens à N’Djaména, la capitale du Tchad ce qui représente une couverture de plus que 70% et a permis d’éliminer la rage canine quasi-totalement. Les données de cette campagne permettent d’élucider la contribution de la couverture vaccinale dans la population et de l’immunité individuelle dans la transmission de la rage. Ainsi, il sera possible d’optimiser l’espacement des campagnes. A travers différentes approches mathématiques et des études de terrain sur l’immunité post-vaccinale et les réseaux de contact entre chiens, ce projet contribuera à la préparation des stratégies les plus coût-efficaces pour l’élimination de la rage canine. Ce projet est une collaboration entre le Centre de Support en Santé Internationale (CSSI), l’Institut de Recherches en Elevage pour le Developpement (IRED) au Tchad et le département de chimie de l’Université de Bâle et l’Institut Tropical et de Santé Publique Suisse.


Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 27.03.2015

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Project partner

Publications

Publication
A metapopulation model of dog rabies transmission in N’Djamena, Chad
Laager Mirjam, Léchenne Monique, Naissengar Kemdongarti, Mindekem Rolande, Oussiguere Assandi, Zinsstag Jakob, Chitnis Nakul (2019), A metapopulation model of dog rabies transmission in N’Djamena, Chad, in Journal of Theoretical Biology, 462, 408-417.
The importance of dog population contact network structures in rabies transmission
Laager Mirjam, Mbilo Céline, Madaye Enos Abdelaziz, Naminou Abakar, Léchenne Monique, Tschopp Aurélie, Naïssengar Service Kemdongarti, Smieszek Timo, Zinsstag Jakob, Chitnis Nakul (2018), The importance of dog population contact network structures in rabies transmission, in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(8), e0006680-e0006680.
Vaccination of dogs in an African city interrupts rabies transmission and reduces human exposure
Zinsstag Jakob, Lechenne Monique, Laager Mirjam, Mindekem Rolande, Naïssengar Service, Oussiguéré Assandi, Bidjeh Kebkiba, Rives Germain, Tessier Julie, Madjaninan Seraphin, Ouagal Mahamat, Moto Daugla D., Alfaroukh Idriss O., Muthiani Yvonne, Traoré Abdallah, Hattendorf Jan, Lepelletier Anthony, Kergoat Lauriane, Bourhy Hervé, Dacheux Laurent, Stadler Tanja, Chitnis Nakul (2017), Vaccination of dogs in an African city interrupts rabies transmission and reduces human exposure, in Science Translational Medicine, 9(421), eaaf6984-eaaf6984.
Cost Description and Comparative Cost Efficiency of Post-Exposure Prophylaxis and Canine Mass Vaccination against Rabies in N’Djamena, Chad
Mindekem Rolande, Lechenne Monique Sarah, Naissengar Kemdongarti Service, Oussiguéré Assandi, Kebkiba Bidjeh, Moto Daugla Doumagoum, Alfaroukh Idriss Oumar, Ouedraogo Laurent Tinoanga, Salifou Sahidou, Zinsstag Jakob (2017), Cost Description and Comparative Cost Efficiency of Post-Exposure Prophylaxis and Canine Mass Vaccination against Rabies in N’Djamena, Chad, in Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 4, 1-11.
Communication: Understanding molecular representations in machine learning: The role of uniqueness and target similarity
Huang Bing, von Lilienfeld O. Anatole (2016), Communication: Understanding molecular representations in machine learning: The role of uniqueness and target similarity, in The Journal of Chemical Physics, 145(16), 161102-161102.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
Prof. Dr. Idriss Alfaroukh - Institut de Recherches pour l'Elevage en Developement (IRED) Chad (Africa)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure
- Exchange of personnel
Timo Smieszek - Public Health England and Imperial College Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media Die Tollwut könnte weltweit ausgerottet werden NZZ am Sonntag German-speaking Switzerland 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
177083 Georeferenced contact sensors for analyzing the dynamics of animal and human populations in relation to disease control 01.12.2017 R'EQUIP
175747 Sampling chemical space with alchemical perturbation theory 01.10.2017 Project funding (Div. I-III)
127548 Implications of social contact models for the spread of infectious diseases 01.10.2009 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

Multiscale dynamics of dog rabies elimination The aim of this project is to elucidate the contributions of population vaccination coverage and the vaccine immunity of individual dogs on the interruption of dog rabies transmission; determine the role of population density of dogs in the transmission of rabies; and identify the optimal frequency and coverage of vaccination campaigns. The proposed project will help define the most cost-effective dog mass vaccination strategies for rabies elimination in Africa and Asia. Rabies is a zoonotic disease that is responsible for substantial human mortality in Asia and Africa, but recent studies have suggested that elimination is possible. We hypothesize that the population level aspects of vaccination coverage contribute more to the dynamics of dog rabies elimination than the kinetics of protective antibodies within individual dogs; and that the transmission of dog rabies is density dependent below a threshold of 100 dogs per km2.Approach: In 2012 and 2013 we vaccinated 18,200 and 20,000 dogs in N’Djaména, Chad, reaching a population coverage of more than 70%. Dog rabies incidence dropped from one rabid dog per week prior to the mass vaccination to less than one rabid dog in eight months afterwards. The last rabid dog was recorded in January 2014. Because of the multiple scales (between dogs and within dogs) in rabies transmission and immune dynamics, this unique data set will be used for comparative mathematical modeling approaches with individual based (contact networks and machine learning) and population-based models. First, we use dog to dog and dog to human contact network data, collected by observational studies, to extrapolate individual dog contact networks to a citywide contact network as a basis for rabies transmission models. Next we will develop metapopulation models that extend an existing compartmental model into 4 or 5 interconnected sub-models, based on the spatial heterogeneity of dog populations in N’Djaména, with assumptions of both frequency-dependent and density-dependent contact rates. Finally we will develop an individual dog based machine learning model and simulate the kinetics of protective antibodies in new populations. The three sets of models will be calibrated to existing data from the previous vaccination campaigns and compared by goodness of fit measures that evaluate parsimony and determine best fitting models (and model assumptions). The models will be used to predict the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns at various frequencies and coverage levels in preventing rabies epidemics due to imported cases. These predictions can then be validated against numbers of any new dog and human rabies cases through the project duration. Expected results and societal impact: This project will generate new knowledge on dog rabies transmission dynamics and potential for elimination; provide advice on optimal vaccination strategies; and identify the most realistic and parsimonious models for the follow-up of forthcoming dog mass vaccination campaigns in Africa and Asia in the framework of the Global Alliance for Rabies Control (GARC).
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