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The Vulnerabilities of Future Interdependent Energy Networks

Applicant Sansavini Giovanni
Number 154277
Funding scheme Assistant Professor (AP) Energy Grants
Research institution Institut für Energietechnik ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Other disciplines of Engineering Sciences
Start/End 01.10.2014 - 31.05.2019
Approved amount 667'828.00
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All Disciplines (2)

Discipline
Other disciplines of Engineering Sciences
Electrical Engineering

Keywords (9)

failure cascades; safe operating conditions; uncertainty quantification; vulnerability analysis; supergrid; natural gas network; protection and mitigation; electrical network; interdependent multi-energy networks

Lay Summary (Italian)

Lead
Titolo del progetto di ricercaLa Vulnerabilità delle Future Reti Energetiche InterdipendentiThe Vulnerabilities of Future Interdependent Energy Networks
Lay summary

In sintesi

In sintesi

Nella Strategia Energetica 2050, la Svizzera dovrà sostituire il 40% della produzione elettrica, mantenere consumi energetici costanti, favorire fonti sostenibili e un approvvigionamento sicuro. Questo cambiamento richiederà un portfolio energetico ottimizzato, l’uso di combustibili fossili e sintetici, calore, luce solare ed energia eolica. Tuttavia, le fonti rinnovabili non possono far fronte alla domanda elettrica con continuità. Perciò, lo stoccaggio, il trasporto energetico, e l’interconnessione delle reti divengono essenziali. L’interconnessione delle reti energetiche, i.e. elettrica, gas naturale, teleriscaldamento e idrogeno, consentirà di ottimizzare la loro gestione, ma darà origine ad un complesso sistema di sistemi, vulnerabile alla propagazione di guasti da una rete alle reti interdipendenti con conseguenze catastrofiche, i cosiddetti guasti a cascata.

Soggetto e obiettivo

Il nostro obiettivo è integrare la vulnerabilità ai guasti a cascata nella progettazione e gestione delle reti energetiche interdipendenti. Più precisamente, (i) ottimizzeremo le interdipendenze fra le reti energetiche al fine di prevenire la propagazione di guasti a cascata; (ii) valuteremo come accoppiare in modo sicuro le reti elettriche e l'infrastruttura di telecomunicazione; (iii) identificheremo condizioni operative da evitare al fine di prevenire la propagazione di guasti a cascata fra reti interdipendenti; (iv) progetteremo protezioni contro il propagarsi di guasti a cascata; e infine (v) quantificheremo l’impatto delle fonti energetiche rinnovabili, l’incertezza nei consumi e la variabilità climatica sulla affidabilità della rete.

Contesto socio-scientifico

Il nostro lavoro permetterà di accrescere la comprensione delle vulnerabilità e dei rischi connessi all’integrazione su larga scala delle reti energetiche. I risultati forniranno una base di riferimento alle decisioni industriali volte a una gestione sicura delle reti energetiche integrate.

Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 17.08.2014

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Optimum post-disruption restoration under uncertainty for enhancing critical infrastructure resilience
Fang Yi-Ping, Sansavini Giovanni (2019), Optimum post-disruption restoration under uncertainty for enhancing critical infrastructure resilience, in Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 185, 1-11.
Extensive CO2 recycling in power systems via Power-to-Gas and network storage
Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2019), Extensive CO2 recycling in power systems via Power-to-Gas and network storage, in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 100, 33-43.
An FTA Method for the Unavailability of Supply in Gas Networks Supported by Physical Models
Gjorgiev Blaze, Antenucci Andrea, Volkanovski Andrija, Sansavini Giovanni (2019), An FTA Method for the Unavailability of Supply in Gas Networks Supported by Physical Models, in IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1-14.
Identification of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction
David Alexander E., Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Identification of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction, in International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 101, 162-175.
Managing gas and electric power network dependencies to secure energy supply: application to the UK system
Wassermann Dominique, Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Managing gas and electric power network dependencies to secure energy supply: application to the UK system, in CRITIS 2017: Critical Information Infrastructures Security, Springer International Publishing, Cham.
A probabilistic risk assessment method for the security of supply in gas networks supported by physical models
Gjorgiev B., Antenucci A., Sansavini G., Volkanovski A. (2018), A probabilistic risk assessment method for the security of supply in gas networks supported by physical models, CRC Press, London.
Gas-Constrained Secure Reserve Allocation With Large Renewable Penetration
Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Gas-Constrained Secure Reserve Allocation With Large Renewable Penetration, in IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 9(2), 685-694.
Adequacy and security analysis of interdependent electric and gas networks
Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Adequacy and security analysis of interdependent electric and gas networks, in Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 232(2), 121-139.
Combined Fault Location and Classification for Power Transmission Lines Fault Diagnosis With Integrated Feature Extraction
Chen Yann Qi, Fink Olga, Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Combined Fault Location and Classification for Power Transmission Lines Fault Diagnosis With Integrated Feature Extraction, in {IEEE} Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 65(1), 561-569.
Resilience and Risk Methods and Application in Environment, Cyber and Social Domains
Sansavini Giovanni (2017), Resilience and Risk Methods and Application in Environment, Cyber and Social Domains, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht.
Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction
David A., Sansavini G. (2017), Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction, in Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications, Portorož, SloveniaCRC Press, London.
Emergence of antifragility by optimum postdisruption restoration planning of infrastructure networks
Fang Y., Sansavini G. (2017), Emergence of antifragility by optimum postdisruption restoration planning of infrastructure networks, in Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 23(4), 04017024.
Engineering resilience in critical infrastructures
Sansavini G. (2017), Engineering resilience in critical infrastructures, in Linkov Igor, Palma-Oliveira José Manuel (ed.), Springer, Dordrecht, PartF1, 189-203.
Gas-constrained Secure Reserve Allocation with Large Renewable Penetration
Antenucci A., Sansavini G. (2017), Gas-constrained Secure Reserve Allocation with Large Renewable Penetration, in IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 1.
Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks
Fang Y., Sansavini G. (2017), Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks, in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 159, 161-173.
Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach
Fang Yiping, Sansavini Giovanni (2017), Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach, in Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016, Glasgow, ScotlandCRC Press/Balkema, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks
Csef Max, Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2016), Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks, in 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), BeijingIEEE, USA.
Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks
Antenucci Andrea, Li Bing, Sansavini Giovanni (2015), Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks, in Gottwalt Sebastian (ed.), Springer International Publishing, Heidelberg, Germany, 36/4-48.
Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures
Gomand Olivier, Antenucci Andrea, Li Bing, Sansavini Giovanni (2015), Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures, in Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - ESREL 2015, Zurich, SwitzerlandCRC Press/Balkema, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience
Fang Y., Sansavini G., Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience, in 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, TU Wien Vienna, Austria-, -.

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Towards a dynamic and holistic approach to Disaster Risk Reduction Talk given at a conference Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 03.06.2019 Grenoble, France Sansavini Giovanni;
SISSA Workshop Individual talk Modelling the failure behavior of complex systems and systems of systems – Methods and applications 03.07.2018 Trieste, Italy Sansavini Giovanni;
ESREL 2018 European Safety and Reliability Association Annual Conference Talk given at a conference A probabilistic risk assessment method for the security of supply in gas networks supported by physical models 17.06.2018 Trondheim, Norway Sansavini Giovanni;
2018 IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON) Talk given at a conference Stochastic unit commitment and reserve scheduling under gas-supply disrupted scenarios 03.06.2018 Limassol, Cyprus Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
Inaugural Summit of the Global Resilience Research Network (GRRN) Talk given at a conference Ingredients of Resilient Infrastructures 29.03.2018 Boston, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
The International Conference on Infrastructure Resilience Talk given at a conference Ingredients of Resilient Infrastructures 14.02.2018 ETH Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Annual Meeting 2017 Talk given at a conference Water-Energy Nexus: Impact on Electrical Energy Conversion and Mitigation by Smart Water Resources Management 11.12.2017 Arlington, VA, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Annual Meeting 2017 Talk given at a conference Emergence of Anti-Fragility by Optimal Recovery Planning in Infrastructure Networks 11.12.2017 Arlington, VA, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni; Fang Yiping;
2017 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Numerical comparison of cascading failure models for power system analysis 02.11.2017 Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni; David Alexander;
2017 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Managing Gas and Electric Power Network Dependencies to Secure Energy Supply 02.11.2017 Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
CRITIS 2017 - The 12th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security Poster Managing gas and electric power network dependencies to secure energy supply: application to the UK system 08.10.2017 Lucca, Italy Sansavini Giovanni;
ICOSSAR 2017 - 12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability Talk given at a conference Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience 06.08.2017 Vienna, Austria Sansavini Giovanni;
ESREL 2017 European Safety and Reliability Association Annual Conference Talk given at a conference Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction 18.06.2017 Portorož, Slovenia Sansavini Giovanni; David Alexander;
The 1st ACM International Workshop on Critical Infrastructure Network Security (CINS), ACM SIGMETRICS 2017 Talk given at a conference Validating Cascading Failure Analysis of Complex Power Networks: a Calibration Approach 05.06.2017 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
ZHAW School of Engineering Seminars Individual talk Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 31.01.2017 Winterthur, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
SRA 2016 Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure resilience under uncertainty 11.12.2016 San Diego, United States of America Fang Yiping; Sansavini Giovanni;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni; David Alexander;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Security Analysis of the Operations of Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Optimizing Power System Investments and Resilience against Attacks 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni; Fang Yiping;
Graduate Seminar Talk 2016-26 Individual talk Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 19.10.2016 Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Sansavini Giovanni;
Future Resilient systems Lunch Talk Individual talk Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 18.10.2016 Singapore ETH Center, Singapore, Singapore Sansavini Giovanni;
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Talk given at a conference Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks 16.10.2016 Beijing, China Sansavini Giovanni;
ESREL 2016 Annual Conference of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) Talk given at a conference Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: a fuzzy programming approach 25.09.2016 Glasgow, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Fang Yiping; Sansavini Giovanni;
Graduate Seminar Individual talk Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 02.09.2016 University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
Resilience-Based Approaches to Critical Infrastructure Safeguarding, NATO Workshop Talk given at a conference Engineering Resilience in the Energy Infrastructure 27.06.2016 Ponta Delgada, Portugal Sansavini Giovanni;
Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges Talk given at a conference Security assessment of interdependent electric and gas networks 14.06.2016 London, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Sansavini Giovanni;
The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL 2015 Talk given at a conference Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures 07.12.2015 Zurich, Switzerland Antenucci Andrea;
The Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Talk given at a conference Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 07.12.2015 Arlington, Virginia, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
Third Deans’ Forum Workshop on Resilience Engineering Talk given at a conference Resilience of the Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 30.11.2015 University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Sansavini Giovanni;
2015 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster ETH RRE – Reliability and Risk Engineering Laboratory 25.11.2015 Swiss Tech Convention Center, Lausanne, Switzerland David Alexander;
ETH Energy Science Center Workshop – Frontiers in Energy Systems Modelling Talk given at a conference Engineering the Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 19.11.2015 ETH Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
4th D-A-CH Energieinformatik Conference Talk given at a conference Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks 12.11.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
CEVE Specialty Seminar Individual talk Resilience of the Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 05.10.2015 Rice University, Houston, Texas, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
Conference on Complex Systems 2015 - CCS’15 Talk given at a conference Emergence of Antifragility by Optimal Recovery Planning in Infrastructure Networks 28.09.2015 Tempe, Arizona, United States of America Sansavini Giovanni;
The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL 2015 Talk given at a conference Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 07.09.2015 Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
PowerTech Eindhoven 2015 - Towards Future Power Systems and Emerging Technologies Talk given at a conference Mitigation of Cascading Failures by Selective Inter-subnetwork Power Shifts under Multi-objective Decision Making 29.06.2015 Eindhoven, Netherlands Sansavini Giovanni;
NetONets 2015 - Network of Networks The last frontier of Complexity Science Talk given at a conference Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 02.06.2015 Zaragoza, Spain Sansavini Giovanni;
LESO Lunchtime* Lectures Individual talk Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 13.03.2015 Ecole Politechnique, Lausanne, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
ETH Risk Center Retreat - Modelling for Resilience Individual talk Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 06.03.2015 ETH Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
WORKSHOP VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES: ISSUES, METHODS AND APPLICATIONS Individual talk Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 03.02.2015 Ecole Centrale Paris, Paris, France Sansavini Giovanni;


Self-organised

Title Date Place

Knowledge transfer events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Date Place Persons involved
ETH Industry Day Talk 04.09.2018 ETH Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
Sustainable Built Environment Joint Research Council Talk 06.06.2018 Singapore, Singapore Sansavini Giovanni;
Expert Group Meeting on Water-Energy Nexus Talk 28.05.2018 European Commission Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Belgium Gjorgiev Blazhe; Sansavini Giovanni;
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Talk 23.01.2018 Davos, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;
The AXA Conference on Country Risk Talk 23.05.2017 Paris, France Sansavini Giovanni;
AXA MATRIX Thought Leadership Forum Talk 22.04.2016 Paris, France Sansavini Giovanni;
Third Deans’ Forum Workshop on Resilience Engineering Workshop 30.11.2015 University of Tokyo, Japan Sansavini Giovanni;
Meeting Forum Industrial Insurer by Swiss Insurance Association Talk 16.09.2015 XL Catlin, Zurich, Switzerland Sansavini Giovanni;


Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Infrastructure Management: Communities Can Profit From Disaster International 2018
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) International 2016
Print (books, brochures, leaflets) Key elements of risk assessment of electric power networks International 2016
Print (books, brochures, leaflets) SATW-Workshops der Themenplattform «Risiko» German-speaking Switzerland 2016
Media relations: print media, online media Als Erstes muss man ermitteln, was schieflaufen kann RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDE 2015, Handelszeitung German-speaking Switzerland 2015

Awards

Title Year
Donald Julius Groen Prize Awarded by Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) 2019
Best Poster Award “Security Analysis of the Operations of Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks” at the 2016 SCCER-FURIES (Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research) Annual Conference - 2 December 2016 in Lausanne 2016
Travel Award SRA 2016 Annual Meeting - The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) - 11 December 2016, San Diego, USA 2016

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
182529 Power-to-gas and network seasonal storage for promoting the safe penetration of renewables in Switzerland 01.06.2019 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to further our understanding of the vulnerabilities and risks stemming from the integration of large-scale multi-energy systems to guide the safe evolution of independently-built, isolated energy carrier networks towards the future interdependent energy infrastructure. Three main questions will be addressed, i.e. (i) interdependencies among energy carrier networks constitute pathways for failure propagation; (ii) operating conditions of the electrical infrastructure and other strategic energy networks provide indications on the proximity to cascades of failures and system collapse; (iii) fluctuating non-dispatchable energy sources, fuel availability, variability in the demand side and global climate change affect the reliability and the security of supply of the energy infrastructure. However, current approaches for the planning and operation of integrated multi-energy networks only partially represent the possible outage propagation in the interdependent multi-energy networks up to systemic failure. Furthermore, they fall short of establishing a connection between operating conditions of the interdependent networks and the proximity to cascading outages and systemic collapse. A major gap is identified in the design and management of future integrated multi-energy networks with respect to vulnerability and risk implications. To bridge this gap, a hybrid integrated approach for modeling the propagation of malfunctions among the interdependent energy carrier networks will be developed and exploited to engineer interdependencies among these systems, to provide insights on the future integration of the networks, and to mitigate the effects of a failure cascade with the perspective of reducing the vulnerability to cascading failures. The coupling with a communication infrastructure will be included in the model and uncertainty quantification and propagation will be applied to enable robust decision-making in connection with the integration of national networks.For the development of the hybrid integrated approach, complex network theory and approximated network flow models will be combined with input-output models, risk analysis methods and power flow models. Latin hypercube sampling will be used to construct effective computer experiments in the determination of the operating conditions that lead to cascades. Reduced-order physical modeling based on queuing theory and validation by simulation tools of communication protocols over wired and wireless networks will be used to evaluate the performance of the communication network. Corrective line switching and controlled islanding based on semi-supervised spectral clustering will be optimized using Differential Evolution. The uncertainty quantification and propagation and the sensitivity analysis will be based on copula-based modeling, polynomial chaos expansions ad Sobol’ indices. The projected results of the developed models will be used to anticipate and mitigate disruptions at the system level, and to define the appropriate level of connectivity and interdependency among strategic energy networks. Moreover, the developed model will also be instrumental in identifying the regions of the system parameters that have to be avoided in order to prevent the propagation of cascading failures in the energy carrier networks, and in developing mitigating actions against the onset and the propagation of cascading failures. The developed methods will be applied to quantify the reliability and security of supply of the Swiss grid in the scenario in of integration in the European electrical grid. The effects of the uncertainties and transnational grid connection will be quantified with reference to the existence of transmission bottlenecks and massive energy swings within the system. Then importance of the planned research for experts in the field will concern knowledge increase with respect to (i) a much richer understanding of the vulnerabilities and risks stemming from the integration of large-scale multi-energy systems; (ii) vulnerability-based evolution of independently-built, isolated infrastructures towards the interdependent future energy infrastructure; (iii) adjusting the operations of the individual networks for the coordinated joint operations of the electrical grid integrated with other energy-carrier networks and the telecommunication infrastructure; (iv) the mechanisms by which cascades of failures spread among the elements of one infrastructure and to coupled infrastructures. Broader impact of this work: industry and policy will likely some of the projected results, i.e. the capability of connecting operations and the proximity to cascading failures; the development of mitigation strategies to hinder the knock-on effect and stave off systemic collapse; the capability of decision-making process in the face of uncertainties. This knowledge will enable a safer management of integrated multi-energy systems.
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