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The Vulnerabilities of Future Interdependent Energy Networks

Gesuchsteller/in Sansavini Giovanni
Nummer 154277
Förderungsinstrument Assistant Professor (AP) Energy Grants
Forschungseinrichtung Institut für Energietechnik ETH Zürich
Hochschule ETH Zürich - ETHZ
Hauptdisziplin Andere Gebiete der Ingenieurwissenschaften
Beginn/Ende 01.10.2014 - 30.09.2018
Bewilligter Betrag 667'828.00
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Alle Disziplinen (2)

Disziplin
Andere Gebiete der Ingenieurwissenschaften
Elektroingenieurwesen

Keywords (9)

failure cascades; safe operating conditions; uncertainty quantification; vulnerability analysis; supergrid; natural gas network; protection and mitigation; electrical network; interdependent multi-energy networks

Lay Summary (Italienisch)

Lead
Titolo del progetto di ricercaLa Vulnerabilità delle Future Reti Energetiche InterdipendentiThe Vulnerabilities of Future Interdependent Energy Networks
Lay summary

In sintesi

In sintesi

Nella Strategia Energetica 2050, la Svizzera dovrà sostituire il 40% della produzione elettrica, mantenere consumi energetici costanti, favorire fonti sostenibili e un approvvigionamento sicuro. Questo cambiamento richiederà un portfolio energetico ottimizzato, l’uso di combustibili fossili e sintetici, calore, luce solare ed energia eolica. Tuttavia, le fonti rinnovabili non possono far fronte alla domanda elettrica con continuità. Perciò, lo stoccaggio, il trasporto energetico, e l’interconnessione delle reti divengono essenziali. L’interconnessione delle reti energetiche, i.e. elettrica, gas naturale, teleriscaldamento e idrogeno, consentirà di ottimizzare la loro gestione, ma darà origine ad un complesso sistema di sistemi, vulnerabile alla propagazione di guasti da una rete alle reti interdipendenti con conseguenze catastrofiche, i cosiddetti guasti a cascata.

Soggetto e obiettivo

Il nostro obiettivo è integrare la vulnerabilità ai guasti a cascata nella progettazione e gestione delle reti energetiche interdipendenti. Più precisamente, (i) ottimizzeremo le interdipendenze fra le reti energetiche al fine di prevenire la propagazione di guasti a cascata; (ii) valuteremo come accoppiare in modo sicuro le reti elettriche e l'infrastruttura di telecomunicazione; (iii) identificheremo condizioni operative da evitare al fine di prevenire la propagazione di guasti a cascata fra reti interdipendenti; (iv) progetteremo protezioni contro il propagarsi di guasti a cascata; e infine (v) quantificheremo l’impatto delle fonti energetiche rinnovabili, l’incertezza nei consumi e la variabilità climatica sulla affidabilità della rete.

Contesto socio-scientifico

Il nostro lavoro permetterà di accrescere la comprensione delle vulnerabilità e dei rischi connessi all’integrazione su larga scala delle reti energetiche. I risultati forniranno una base di riferimento alle decisioni industriali volte a una gestione sicura delle reti energetiche integrate.

Direktlink auf Lay Summary Letzte Aktualisierung: 17.08.2014

Verantw. Gesuchsteller/in und weitere Gesuchstellende

Mitarbeitende

Publikationen

Publikation
Combined Fault Location and Classification for Power Transmission Lines Fault Diagnosis With Integrated Feature Extraction
Chen Yann Qi, Fink Olga, Sansavini Giovanni (2018), Combined Fault Location and Classification for Power Transmission Lines Fault Diagnosis With Integrated Feature Extraction, in {IEEE} Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 65(1), 561-569.
Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction
David A., Sansavini G. (2017), Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction, in Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications, Portorož, SloveniaCRC Press, London.
Emergence of antifragility by optimum postdisruption restoration planning of infrastructure networks
Fang Y., Sansavini G. (2017), Emergence of antifragility by optimum postdisruption restoration planning of infrastructure networks, in Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 23(4), 04017024.
Engineering resilience in critical infrastructures
Sansavini G. (2017), Engineering resilience in critical infrastructures, in Linkov Igor, Palma-Oliveira José Manuel (ed.), Springer, Dordrecht, PartF1, 189-203.
Gas-constrained Secure Reserve Allocation with Large Renewable Penetration
Antenucci A., Sansavini G. (2017), Gas-constrained Secure Reserve Allocation with Large Renewable Penetration, in IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 1.
Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks
Fang Y., Sansavini G. (2017), Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks, in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 159, 161-173.
Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach
Fang Yiping, Sansavini Giovanni (2017), Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach, in Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016, Glasgow, ScotlandCRC Press/Balkema, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks
Csef Max, Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni (2016), Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks, in 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), BeijingIEEE, USA.
Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks
Antenucci Andrea, Li Bing, Sansavini Giovanni (2015), Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks, in Gottwalt Sebastian (ed.), Springer International Publishing, Heidelberg, Germany, 36/4-48.
Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures
Gomand Olivier, Antenucci Andrea, Li Bing, Sansavini Giovanni (2015), Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures, in Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - ESREL 2015, Zurich, SwitzerlandCRC Press/Balkema, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Adequacy and security analysis of interdependent electric and gas networks
Antenucci Andrea, Sansavini Giovanni, Adequacy and security analysis of interdependent electric and gas networks, in Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 1.
Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience
Fang Y., Sansavini G., Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience, in 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, TU Wien Vienna, Austria-, -.

Wissenschaftliche Veranstaltungen

Aktiver Beitrag

Titel Art des Beitrags Titel des Artikels oder Beitrages Datum Ort Beteiligte Personen
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Annual Meeting 2017 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Water-Energy Nexus: Impact on Electrical Energy Conversion and Mitigation by Smart Water Resources Management 11.12.2017 Arlington, VA, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Annual Meeting 2017 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Emergence of Anti-Fragility by Optimal Recovery Planning in Infrastructure Networks 11.12.2017 Arlington, VA, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni; Fang Yiping;
2017 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Numerical comparison of cascading failure models for power system analysis 02.11.2017 Lausanne, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni; David Alexander;
2017 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Managing Gas and Electric Power Network Dependencies to Secure Energy Supply 02.11.2017 Lausanne, Schweiz Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
CRITIS 2017 - The 12th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security Poster Managing gas and electric power network dependencies to secure energy supply: application to the UK system 08.10.2017 Lucca, Italien Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
ICOSSAR 2017 - 12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling Uncertainty in Post-disruption Restoration for Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience 06.08.2017 Vienna, Oesterreich Sansavini Giovanni;
ESREL 2017 European Safety and Reliability Association Annual Conference Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction 18.06.2017 Portorož, Slowenien Sansavini Giovanni; David Alexander;
The 1st ACM International Workshop on Critical Infrastructure Network Security (CINS), ACM SIGMETRICS 2017 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Validating Cascading Failure Analysis of Complex Power Networks: a Calibration Approach 05.06.2017 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
ZHAW School of Engineering Seminars Einzelvortrag Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 31.01.2017 Winterthur, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni;
SRA 2016 Annual Meeting Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure resilience under uncertainty 11.12.2016 San Diego, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni; Fang Yiping;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Identification and mitigation of critical states in power systems by limit state surface reconstruction 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Schweiz David Alexander; Sansavini Giovanni;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Security Analysis of the Operations of Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni; Antenucci Andrea;
2016 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster Optimizing Power System Investments and Resilience against Attacks 02.12.2016 Lausanne, Schweiz Fang Yiping; Sansavini Giovanni;
Graduate Seminar Talk 2016-26 Einzelvortrag Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 19.10.2016 Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Sansavini Giovanni;
Future Resilient systems Lunch Talk Einzelvortrag Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 18.10.2016 Singapore ETH Center, Singapore, Singapur Sansavini Giovanni;
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Impact of spatio-temporally correlated wind generation on the interdependent operations of gas and electric networks 16.10.2016 Beijing, China Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
ESREL 2016 Annual Conference of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: a fuzzy programming approach 25.09.2016 Glasgow, Grossbritannien und Nordirland Sansavini Giovanni; Fang Yiping;
Graduate Seminar Einzelvortrag Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 02.09.2016 University of Oklahoma, Norman, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
Resilience-Based Approaches to Critical Infrastructure Safeguarding, NATO Workshop Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Engineering Resilience in the Energy Infrastructure 27.06.2016 Ponta Delgada, Portugal Sansavini Giovanni;
Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Security assessment of interdependent electric and gas networks 14.06.2016 London, Grossbritannien und Nordirland Antenucci Andrea; Sansavini Giovanni;
The Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Engineering Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures 07.12.2015 Arlington, Virginia, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL 2015 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context of cascading failures 07.12.2015 Zurich, Schweiz Antenucci Andrea;
Third Deans’ Forum Workshop on Resilience Engineering Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Resilience of the Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 30.11.2015 University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Sansavini Giovanni;
2015 SCCER-FURIES Annual Conference Poster ETH RRE – Reliability and Risk Engineering Laboratory 25.11.2015 Swiss Tech Convention Center, Lausanne, Schweiz David Alexander; Antenucci Andrea;
ETH Energy Science Center Workshop – Frontiers in Energy Systems Modelling Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Engineering the Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructures 19.11.2015 ETH Zurich, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni;
4th D-A-CH Energieinformatik Conference Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Impact of Power-to-Gas on Cascading Failures in Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks 12.11.2015 Karlsruhe, Deutschland Antenucci Andrea;
CEVE Specialty Seminar Einzelvortrag Resilience of the Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 05.10.2015 Rice University, Houston, Texas, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
Conference on Complex Systems 2015 - CCS’15 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Emergence of Antifragility by Optimal Recovery Planning in Infrastructure Networks 28.09.2015 Tempe, Arizona, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Sansavini Giovanni;
The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL 2015 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Resilience of Interdependent Energy Infrastructure 07.09.2015 Zurich, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni;
PowerTech Eindhoven 2015 - Towards Future Power Systems and Emerging Technologies Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Mitigation of Cascading Failures by Selective Inter-subnetwork Power Shifts under Multi-objective Decision Making 29.06.2015 Eindhoven, Niederlande Sansavini Giovanni;
NetONets 2015 - Network of Networks The last frontier of Complexity Science Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 02.06.2015 Zaragoza, Spanien Sansavini Giovanni;
LESO Lunchtime* Lectures Einzelvortrag Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 13.03.2015 Ecole Politechnique, Lausanne, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni;
ETH Risk Center Retreat - Modelling for Resilience Einzelvortrag Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 06.03.2015 ETH Zurich, Schweiz Sansavini Giovanni;
WORKSHOP VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES: ISSUES, METHODS AND APPLICATIONS Einzelvortrag Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks 03.02.2015 Ecole Centrale Paris, Paris, Frankreich Sansavini Giovanni;


Selber organisiert

Titel Datum Ort

Veranstaltungen zum Wissenstransfer

Aktiver Beitrag

Titel Art des Beitrags Titel des Artikels oder Beitrages Datum Ort Beteiligte Personen
The AXA Conference on Country Risk Vortrag 23.05.2017 Paris, Frankreich
AXA MATRIX Thought Leadership Forum Vortrag 22.04.2016 Paris, Frankreich
Third Deans’ Forum Workshop on Resilience Engineering Workshop 30.11.2015 University of Tokyo, Japan
Meeting Forum Industrial Insurer by Swiss Insurance Association Vortrag 16.09.2015 XL Catlin, Zurich, Schweiz


Kommunikation mit der Öffentlichkeit

Kommunikation Titel Medien Ort Jahr
Neue Medien (Web, Blogs, Podcasts, NewsFeed, usw.) IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) International 2016
Print (Buch, Brochuren, Infoblätter) Key elements of risk assessment of electric power networks International 2016
Print (Buch, Brochuren, Infoblätter) SATW-Workshops der Themenplattform «Risiko» Deutschschweiz 2016
Medienarbeit: Printmedien, Online-Medien Als Erstes muss man ermitteln, was schieflaufen kann RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDE 2015, Handelszeitung Deutschschweiz 2015

Auszeichnungen

Titel Jahr
Best Poster Award “Security Analysis of the Operations of Interdependent Electric and Gas Networks” at the 2016 SCCER-FURIES (Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research) Annual Conference - 2 December 2016 in Lausanne 2016
Travel Award SRA 2016 Annual Meeting - The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) - 11 December 2016, San Diego, USA 2016

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to further our understanding of the vulnerabilities and risks stemming from the integration of large-scale multi-energy systems to guide the safe evolution of independently-built, isolated energy carrier networks towards the future interdependent energy infrastructure. Three main questions will be addressed, i.e. (i) interdependencies among energy carrier networks constitute pathways for failure propagation; (ii) operating conditions of the electrical infrastructure and other strategic energy networks provide indications on the proximity to cascades of failures and system collapse; (iii) fluctuating non-dispatchable energy sources, fuel availability, variability in the demand side and global climate change affect the reliability and the security of supply of the energy infrastructure. However, current approaches for the planning and operation of integrated multi-energy networks only partially represent the possible outage propagation in the interdependent multi-energy networks up to systemic failure. Furthermore, they fall short of establishing a connection between operating conditions of the interdependent networks and the proximity to cascading outages and systemic collapse. A major gap is identified in the design and management of future integrated multi-energy networks with respect to vulnerability and risk implications. To bridge this gap, a hybrid integrated approach for modeling the propagation of malfunctions among the interdependent energy carrier networks will be developed and exploited to engineer interdependencies among these systems, to provide insights on the future integration of the networks, and to mitigate the effects of a failure cascade with the perspective of reducing the vulnerability to cascading failures. The coupling with a communication infrastructure will be included in the model and uncertainty quantification and propagation will be applied to enable robust decision-making in connection with the integration of national networks.For the development of the hybrid integrated approach, complex network theory and approximated network flow models will be combined with input-output models, risk analysis methods and power flow models. Latin hypercube sampling will be used to construct effective computer experiments in the determination of the operating conditions that lead to cascades. Reduced-order physical modeling based on queuing theory and validation by simulation tools of communication protocols over wired and wireless networks will be used to evaluate the performance of the communication network. Corrective line switching and controlled islanding based on semi-supervised spectral clustering will be optimized using Differential Evolution. The uncertainty quantification and propagation and the sensitivity analysis will be based on copula-based modeling, polynomial chaos expansions ad Sobol’ indices. The projected results of the developed models will be used to anticipate and mitigate disruptions at the system level, and to define the appropriate level of connectivity and interdependency among strategic energy networks. Moreover, the developed model will also be instrumental in identifying the regions of the system parameters that have to be avoided in order to prevent the propagation of cascading failures in the energy carrier networks, and in developing mitigating actions against the onset and the propagation of cascading failures. The developed methods will be applied to quantify the reliability and security of supply of the Swiss grid in the scenario in of integration in the European electrical grid. The effects of the uncertainties and transnational grid connection will be quantified with reference to the existence of transmission bottlenecks and massive energy swings within the system. Then importance of the planned research for experts in the field will concern knowledge increase with respect to (i) a much richer understanding of the vulnerabilities and risks stemming from the integration of large-scale multi-energy systems; (ii) vulnerability-based evolution of independently-built, isolated infrastructures towards the interdependent future energy infrastructure; (iii) adjusting the operations of the individual networks for the coordinated joint operations of the electrical grid integrated with other energy-carrier networks and the telecommunication infrastructure; (iv) the mechanisms by which cascades of failures spread among the elements of one infrastructure and to coupled infrastructures. Broader impact of this work: industry and policy will likely some of the projected results, i.e. the capability of connecting operations and the proximity to cascading failures; the development of mitigation strategies to hinder the knock-on effect and stave off systemic collapse; the capability of decision-making process in the face of uncertainties. This knowledge will enable a safer management of integrated multi-energy systems.
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