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Challenges in simulating alpine species assemblages under global change (SESAM'ALP)

Titel Englisch Challenges in simulating alpine species assemblages under global change (SESAM'ALP)
Gesuchsteller/in Guisan Antoine
Nummer 152866
Förderungsinstrument Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
Forschungseinrichtung Département d'Ecologie et d'Evolution Faculté de Biologie et de Médecine Université de Lausanne
Hochschule Universität Lausanne - LA
Hauptdisziplin Oekologie
Beginn/Ende 01.06.2014 - 31.10.2017
Bewilligter Betrag 579'907.00
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Keywords (11)

very high resolution mapping; environmental carrying capacity; virtual simulations; artificial data; biotic interactions; plant and insect communities; global change impact ; integrating scales; Swiss Alps; species distribution models; assemblage modelling

Lay Summary (Französisch)

Lead
SESAM’ALP - Challenges in simulating alpine species assemblages under global change
Lay summary

La Terre seréchauffe. Quel impact ces changements climatiques auront-ils sur ladistribution de la biodiversité et des écosystèmes ? Ces dernières années,des modèles prédictifs ont été développés et utilisés pour évaluer l’impact deschangements climatiques futurs sur la flore des Alpes vaudoises, mettant enévidence un risque accru pour les espèces alpines et nivales. Des modèlespréliminaires ont pu intégrer certaines interactions biotiques, par exempleentre plantes ou entre plantes et pollinisateurs, mais notre capacité demodéliser des communautés entières reste limitée, alors qu’elle constitue labase pour anticiper la réponse des écosystèmes. Ce projet vise à développer desmodèles et prédictions spatiales pour les communautés végétales des Alpes vaudoisesdans leur ensemble, en partant des espèces individuelles et en les combinant aumoyen de règles d’assemblage et de contraintes biologiques etenvironnementales. Il devrait permettre d’effectuer des avancées significativesdans notre compréhension des facteurs régissant l’assemblage des communautésvégétales et dans notre capacité de les intégrer dans une approche demodélisation intégrée.

Direktlink auf Lay Summary Letzte Aktualisierung: 26.03.2014

Verantw. Gesuchsteller/in und weitere Gesuchstellende

Mitarbeitende

Publikationen

Publikation
Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?
Mateo R. (2017), Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?, in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32, 556-566.
ecospat: an R package to support spatial analyses and modeling of species niches and distributions
Di Cola V. (2017), ecospat: an R package to support spatial analyses and modeling of species niches and distributions, in Ecography, 40, 774-787.
Improving spatial predictions of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity.
D'Amen M. (2017), Improving spatial predictions of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity., in Journal of Ecology, 106, 76-86.
What we use is not what we know: environmental predictors in plant distribution models
Mod H. (2016), What we use is not what we know: environmental predictors in plant distribution models, in Journal of Vegetation Science, 27, 1308-1322.
Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models
D'Amen M. (2015), Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models, in Journal of Biogeography, 42, 1255-1266.
Climate change impact on mountain biodiversity
Guisan A., Climate change impact on mountain biodiversity, in Thomas E. Lovejoy and Lee Hannah (ed.).
Disentangling biotic interactions, environmental filters, and dispersal limitation as drivers of species co-occurrence.
D'Amen M., Disentangling biotic interactions, environmental filters, and dispersal limitation as drivers of species co-occurrence., in Ecography, In press.
Learning from model errors: Can land use, edaphic and very high-resolution topo-climatic factors improve macroecological models of mountain grasslands?
Baudraz Maude E.A., Learning from model errors: Can land use, edaphic and very high-resolution topo-climatic factors improve macroecological models of mountain grasslands?, in Journal of Biogeography, In press.

Zusammenarbeit

Gruppe / Person Land
Formen der Zusammenarbeit
Dr. Niklaus Zimmermann / WSL Birmensdorf Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Forschungsinfrastrukturen
Dr. Pascal Vittoz / Dept. Ecology & Evolution / University of Lausanne Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Prof. Eric Verrecchia Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Forschungsinfrastrukturen
- Austausch von Mitarbeitern
Dr. Stephane Joost / Swiss Institute of Technology (ETH) Lausanne / LaSIG lab Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Forschungsinfrastrukturen
Dr. Simon Ferrier / CSIRO Entomology, Canberra Australien (Ozeanien)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Prof. Miska Luoto Finnland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Austausch von Mitarbeitern
Prof. Daniel Cherix / Dept. Ecology & Evolution / University of Lausanne & Zoology Museum Lausanne Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
Prof. Stuart Lane Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Forschungsinfrastrukturen
- Austausch von Mitarbeitern
Dr. Stephane Dullinger / VINCA Institute, Vienna Österreich (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Dr. Wilfried Thuiller / LECA / CNRS & University Joseph Fourier Grenoble Frankreich (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
- Forschungsinfrastrukturen
- Austausch von Mitarbeitern

Verbundene Projekte

Nummer Titel Start Förderungsinstrument
162754 Integrating spatial predictions of vegetation, soils, geomorphology and hydrology for improved assessment of ecosystem services under climate change 01.01.2016 Interdisziplinäre Projekte
125145 Assessing the importance of biotic interactions for predicting the impact of climate change on the future distribution of plant assemblages (BIOASSEMBLE) 01.04.2009 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)

Abstract

Background. This project is currently my main group’s project. Through my previous SNF projects, robust distribution data have been collected on plants and insects in an intensively sampled study area of the Swiss Alps. These data were used to develop models for the current and future (under climate change) distribution of plant and insect species, and to attempt predicting communities by stacking individual species’ predictions (S-SDMs), according to community modelling schemes, such as the SESAM framework. Important limits to such species and assemblage modelling were however identified. Specific aims. In this follow-up SESAM’ALP project, I aim at overcoming these limitations by: (i) developing very-high-resolution environmental maps, and accordingly improve associated species distribution predictions, for the study area; (ii) test novel ways to quantify and integrate biotic interactions in S-SDMs and implement the use of macroecological environmental constraints on S-SDMs; (iii) integrate information from larger scales (e.g. invading/colonizing species, uncovered part of the niche) at the regional scale, (iv) test these approaches through novel virtual simulations ; and (v) use these improved models to develop novel regional multi-drivers scenarios of global change impact on plant and insect communities at very high-resolution in the Alps. Methods. Advanced statistical modelling and spatial analyses will be used to improve assemblage and macroecological modelling, and to test and quantify biotic interactions. Dispersal modelling will be used for predicting future distributions of native species, and to model the spread of invasive species. Scripts will be developed for the virtual ecologist approach.Expected value of the proposed project. The knowledge gained at the end of the project, and the new innovative approaches, tools and datasets delivered, should foster important advances in our capacity of modeling and predicting communities across entire landscapes. In particular, it should allow addressing partially the question: will plant and insect communities evolve into novel assemblages under global changes?
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