Debris flow; mountains; climate change; natural hazards; Tian Shan; GLOF; Glacier
de Haas T., Densmore A.L., Stoffel M., Suwa H., Imaizumi F., Ballesteros-Cánovas J.A., Wasklewicz T. (2018), Avulsions and the spatio-temporal evolution of debris-flow fans, in Earth-Science Reviews
, 177, 53-75.
Erokhin S.A., Zaginaev V.V., Meleshko A.A., Ruiz-Villanueva V., Petrakov D.A., Chernomorets S.S., Viskhadzhieva K.S., Tutubalina O.V., Stoffel M. (2017), Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan), in Landslides
Petrov M.A., Sabitov T.Y., Tomashevskaya I.G., Glazirin G.E., Chernomorets S.S., Savernyuk E.A., Tutubalina O.V., Petrakov D.A., Sokolov L.S., Dokukin M.D., Mountrakis G., Ruiz-Villanueva V., Stoffel M. (2017), Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan, in Science of the Total Environment
, 592, 228-242.
Hoelzle M. Azisov E. Barandun M. Huss M. Farinotti D. Gafurov A. Hagg W. Kenzhebaev R., Kronenberg M. Machguth H. Merkushkin A. Moldobekov B. Petrov M. Saks T. Salzmann N., Schone T. Tarasov Y. Usubaliev R. Vorogushyn S. Yakovlev A. Zemp M. (2017), Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia, in Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst.
, 6, 397-418.
Petrakov D., Shpuntova A., Aleinikov A., Kääb A., Kutuzov S., Lavrentiev I., Stoffel M., Tutubalina O., Usubaliev R. (2016), Accelerated glacier shrinkage in the Ak-Shyirak massif, Inner Tien Shan, during 2003-2013, in Science of the Total Environment
, 562, 364-378.
Petrakov Dmitry, Shpuntova Alyona, Aleinikov Alexandr, Kääb Andreas, Kutuzov Stanislav, Lavrentiev Ivan, Stoffel Markus, Tutubalina Olga, Usubaliev Ryskul (2016), Accelerated glacier shrinkage in the Ak-Shyirak massif, Inner Tien Shan, during 2003–2013, in Science of The Total Environment
, 562, 364-378.
Chernomorets S.S. Savernyuk E.A. Viskhadzhieva K.S. Petrakov D.A. Petrov M.A.Erokhin S.A., Dokukin M.D. Tutubalina O.V. Glazirin G.E. Sokolov L.S.Shpuntova A.M. Stoffel M. (2016), Assessment of debris flow hazard in the Shakhimardan (Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan) transboundary basin based on remote sensing and field surveys, in UNSC RAS (ed.), UNSC RAS, Rostov-on-Don, 177-186.
Zaginaev Vitalii, Ballesteros-Canovas Juan A., Erokhin Sergey, Matov Ernis, Petrakov Dmitry, Stoffel Markus (2016), Reconstruction of glacial lake outburst floods in northern Tien Shan: Implications for hazard assessment, in Geomorphology
, 269, 75-84.
As a result of ongoing climatic change, glaciers in most parts of the World are currently being affected by significant shrinkage and mass losses, with associated changes in the activity and/or severity of high-mountain mass-movement processes. The formation of glacier lakes and related occurrence of glacier lake outburst floods (or GLOF) is one such consequence of climate change and events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude over the next few decades, with potential disastrous consequences for populations living downstream of high-mountain regions. The Tian Shan mountains in Central Asia have been identified as a significant “hotspot” of climate change impacts, not least in terms of future water availability and possible glacier-related disasters. Understanding the current and possible future evolution of these phenomena is challenging in the region because of (i) very limited existing scientific data, resulting in large uncertainties about the current and even more so about future risks of GLOF and related debris-flow phenomena; (ii) strategic interests with respect to water resources and associated uses that will likely lead to rivalries or conflicts, as well as (iii) expected increased vulnerability of local inhabitants or sensitive infrastructure to changing natural hazards and risks. The DEFenCC project therefore aims at improving the understanding of past and current GLOF and debris-flow processes in the Tian Shan mountains and to assess the impact of expected climate changes on their occurrence in terms of frequency and magnitude, but also in terms of risks for the local inhabitants. Based on retrospective analyses of GLOF and debris-flow processes and down-scaled climate predictions from regional climate models (CMIP5), changes of disposition and triggers (in terms of meteorological and climatic conditions leading to their release), DEFenCC will model the magnitude and frequency of potential future events in four vulnerable case-study regions of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan using coupled, physically-based models of lake impact, dam breach and flow propagation. Results are expected to contribute significantly to the overall understanding of climate change impacts on GLOF and debris-flow occurrences in mountain areas in general and will be of relevance for the region under investigation.