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The mutual interaction of individual weather systems and weather regimes

Applicant Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid
Number 148177
Funding scheme Ambizione
Research institution Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima ETH Zürich
Institution of higher education ETH Zurich - ETHZ
Main discipline Meteorology
Start/End 01.07.2014 - 30.06.2017
Approved amount 374'505.00
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Keywords (22)

forecast verification; ERA-INTERIM; numerical modelling; potential vorticity; cyclone; WWRP; weather forecast; atmospheric dynamics; blocking; climatology; meteorology; predictability; weather; weather system; weather regime; ECMWF; winter storm; heat wave; HIWeather; subseasonal prediction; energy meteorology; wind power

Lay Summary (German)

Lead
Das tägliche Wetter in den mittleren Breiten wird durch die Abfolge von Hoch- und Tiefdruckgebieten (sog. Wettersystemen) dominiert. Der Charakter des Wetters in einer Region ist jedoch oft wochenlang ähnlich und von einem sog. Wetterregime geprägt. Entgegen der Vorhersage des täglichen Wetters ist die Vorhersage des Lebenszyklus eines Wetterregimes oft mit grossen Unsicherheiten verbunden.
Lay summary
Inhalt und Ziel des Forschungsprojekts

In diesem Projekt werden die meteorologischen Prozesse untersucht, die den Lebenszyklus von für die Schweiz und Europa wichtigen Wetterregimen beeinflussen und es wird versucht Schwachpunkte in aktuellen Wettervorhersagemodellen herauszufinden. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf kritischen Phasen des Lebenszyklus, wie dem Einsetzen und Ende eines Wetterregimes oder dem Wechsel von einem Regime in ein anderes. Insbesondere wird die Rolle der Wechselwirkung mit einzelnen Wettersystemen während dieser kritischen Phasen betrachtet. Dazu wird das Wettergeschehen auf der Nordhalbkugel während der letzten 30 Jahre mit einem sogenannten Reanalysedatensatz untersucht. Genauer werden zunächst systematische Zusammenhänge des Auftretens verschiedener Wettersysteme während kritischer Phasen des Lebenszyklus von Wetterregimen bestimmt. Dies ermöglicht es zum einen die zugrunde liegenden physikalischen und dynamischen Prozesse zu untersuchen und zum anderen mögliche Quellen für Fehler in der Darstellung von Wetterregimen in numerischen Modellen aufzudecken.

Wissenschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Kontext des Forschungsprojekts

Das Projekt wird einen wichtigen Beitrag zur meteorologischen Grundlagenforschung liefern und bildet die Basis für eine zukünftige Verbesserung numerischer Wettervorhersagemodelle. Neu erstellte Diagnosetechniken können in die operationelle Wettervorhersage einfliessen.
Direct link to Lay Summary Last update: 06.08.2017

Responsible applicant and co-applicants

Employees

Publications

Publication
Linking low-frequency large-scale circulation patterns to cold air outbreak formation in the north-eastern North Atlantic
Papritz L., Grams C. M. (2018), Linking low-frequency large-scale circulation patterns to cold air outbreak formation in the north-eastern North Atlantic, in Geophysical Research Letters.
Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event
Binder Hanin, Boettcher Maxi, Grams Christian M., Joos Hanna, Pfahl Stephan, Wernli Heini (2017), Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event, in Geophysical Research Letters, 44(23), 12,028-12,036.
The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts
Evans Clark, Wood Kimberly M., Aberson Sim D., Archambault Heather M., Milrad Shawn M., Bosart Lance F., Corbosiero Kristen L., Davis Christopher A., Dias Pinto João R., Doyle James, Fogarty Chris, Galarneau Thomas J., Grams Christian M., Griffin Kyle S., Gyakum John, Hart Robert E., Kitabatake Naoko, Lentink Hilke S., McTaggart-Cowan Ron, Perrie William, Quinting Julian F. D., Reynolds Carolyn A., Riemer Michael, Ritchie Elizabeth A., Sun Yujuan, Zhang Fuqing (2017), The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts, in Monthly Weather Review, 145(11), 4317-4344.
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?Stratospheric Predictability for Wind Energy
Beerli Remo, Wernli Heini, Grams Christian M. (2017), Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?Stratospheric Predictability for Wind Energy, in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(709), 3025-3036.
Balancing Europe’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes
Grams Christian M., Beerli Remo, Pfenninger Stefan, Staffell Iain, Wernli Heini (2017), Balancing Europe’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes, in Nature Climate Change, 7(8), 557-562.
Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event
Schneidereit Andrea, Grams Christian M., Keller Julia H., Wolf Gabriel, Teubler Franziska, Riemer Michael, Martius Olivia (2017), Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event, in Monthly Weather Review, 145(5), 1797-1815.
The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: a representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition.
Grams Christian M., Archambault Heather M. (2016), The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: a representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition., in Monthly Weather Review, 144(10), 3847-3869.
European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011)
Grams Christian M., Blumer Sandro R. (2015), European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011), in Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20), 8738-8748.
Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking
Pfahl S., Schwierz C., Croci-Maspoli M., Grams C.M., Wernli H. (2015), Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking, in Nature Geoscience, 8(8), 610-614.
Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013
Grams C. M., Binder H., Pfahl S., Piaget N., Wernli H. (2014), Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(7), 1691-1702.

Collaboration

Group / person Country
Types of collaboration
PANDOWAE (D/CH) Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forcasts (ECMWF) Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) United States of America (North America)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
Climate Policy Group USYS, ETHZ Switzerland (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
University of Bergen Norway (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Exchange of personnel
Waves to Weather (W2W) Germany (Europe)
- in-depth/constructive exchanges on approaches, methods or results
- Publication
- Research Infrastructure

Scientific events

Active participation

Title Type of contribution Title of article or contribution Date Place Persons involved
Bilateral meeting on Warm Conveyor Belts Talk given at a conference A new look at Atlantic-European weather regime life cycles and the role of WCBs therein 23.05.2017 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
Seminar Bjerknes Visiting Fellow Programme Individual talk Atlantic-European weather regimes and their life cycles 29.03.2017 Bergen, Norway Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
IMK Kolloquium, KIT Individual talk The impact of “diabatic outflow” on the large-scale midlatitude circulation and predictability 17.01.2017 Karlsruhe, Germany Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
RMetS/NCAS Conference 2016 Talk given at a conference The importance of latent heat release in large-scale flow variability 06.07.2016 Manchester, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
Workshop on Atmospheric Blocking Poster Representation of blocking anticyclones in the new global model ICON and the role of horizontal resolution 07.04.2016 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
Workshop on Atmospheric Blocking Talk given at a conference The role of individual synoptic-scale weather systems and cloud diabatic processes in the life cycle of European weather regimes. 06.04.2016 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
Seminar at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Individual talk The role of individual synoptic-scale weather systems in the life cycle of European weather regimes, and verification of Lagrangian warm conveyor belt ensemble forecast products. 04.04.2016 Reading, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
17th Cyclone Workshop Talk given at a conference The impact of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow: a refined view unifying the composite and case study approach. 25.10.2015 Pacific Grove, California, United States of America Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
5th Workshop on European Storms Poster The impact of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow: a refined view unifying the composite and case study approach 31.08.2015 Bern, Switzerland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
5th Workshop on European Storms Talk given at a conference A novel metric to assess the "extremeness" of cyclones 31.08.2015 Bern, Switzerland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
Colloquium in Climatology, Climate Impact and Remote Sensing at the Institute of Geography, Universität Bern Individual talk The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in triggering high impact weather and forecast uncertainty in the midlatitudes 27.05.2015 Bern, Switzerland Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
PANDOWAE Final Symposium Talk given at a conference The role of weather systems and associated diabatic processes in downstream flow sensitivity and midlatitude high impact weather 18.05.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
PANDOWAE Final Symposium Poster Quantifying the midlatitude impact of extratropical transition: From case studies to a composite view 18.05.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
World Weather Open Science Conference Talk given at a conference Central European floods in June 2013 16.08.2014 Montréal, Canada Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;
World Weather Open Science Conference Poster A novel metric to assess the “extremeness” of cyclones 16.08.2014 Montréal, Canada Grams Christian Michael Warnfrid;


Self-organised

Title Date Place
PANDOWAE Final Symposium 18.05.2015 Karlsruhe, Germany

Communication with the public

Communication Title Media Place Year
Media relations: print media, online media L'Europe devrait mieux collaborer dans l'éolien 24heures.ch Western Switzerland 2017
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Balancing Europe's wind power private blog International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Balancing out the lulls of wind power with a wider reach across Europe The Guardian International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Beim Windstrom sollte Europa mehr zusammenarbeiten Blick.ch German-speaking Switzerland 2017
Media relations: radio, television Echo der Zeit SRF German-speaking Switzerland International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media European cooperation could provide more stable wind power Imperial College Science News International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Unbalanced wind farm planning exacerbates fluctuations ETH News International 2017
Media relations: print media, online media Was Europa bei Nordsee-Flauten tun kann Spiegel online International German-speaking Switzerland 2017
New media (web, blogs, podcasts, news feeds etc.) Private Webseite & Blog mit Hintergrund zu eigenen Forschungsaktivitäten International 2016

Awards

Title Year
Bjerknes Visiting Fellow 2017

Associated projects

Number Title Start Funding scheme
146834 Diabatic processes in North Atlantic weather systems: dynamics and impact on forecast errors 01.06.2013 Project funding (Div. I-III)
130079 The dynamics of North Atlantic warm conveyor belts and their impact on downstream wave propagation and European weather systems 01.06.2010 Project funding (Div. I-III)

Abstract

The atmospheric conditions, colloquially denoted as “weather”, have a crucial impact on human activities (e.g. health, transport, agriculture). Thereby “weather” occurs on various temporal and spatial scales. On a daily and regional scale individual weather systems may affect infrastructure or even lead to severe loss and destruction. Two prominent examples in Switzerland are the Brig flood (1993) or winter storm Lothar (1999). In the midlatitudes individual weather systems are usually embedded in recurrent and quasi-stationary large-scale flow patterns - so-called weather regimes. Weather regimes last for several weeks and extend over continent-size regions. Although during a weather regime the day-to-day variability may be high, the overall character of the weather for a longer period is similar. Recent examples are the prolonged hot and dry periods in North America (2012), Russia (2011), or in Europe (2003) causing health problems, reduced crops, wildfires, and power shortage. The skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is systematically linked to the different scales on which variability of the atmospheric conditions occurs. While NWP usually has good forecast skill for weather systems on the synoptic scale (up to 10 days), predictability for weather regimes on the sub-seasonal scale (few weeks to months) is strongly reduced. In particular the onset and decay of a weather regime and the transition between different weather regimes poses a severe challenge to NWP. Various studies documented that the interaction of individual weather systems with the large-scale flow play a crucial role in the onset, decay and transition of weather regimes. In this project a novel approach will be used to re-investigate the mutual interaction of weather systems and weather regimes in the Atlantic-European region with the aim to reveal the physical and dynamical processes that govern the life-cycle of weather regimes and to detect sources of error for their representation in NWP models.
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