forecast verification; ERA-INTERIM; numerical modelling; potential vorticity; cyclone; WWRP; weather forecast; atmospheric dynamics; blocking; climatology; meteorology; predictability; weather; weather system; weather regime; ECMWF; winter storm; heat wave; HIWeather; subseasonal prediction; energy meteorology; wind power
Papritz L., Grams C. M. (2018), Linking low-frequency large-scale circulation patterns to cold air outbreak formation in the north-eastern North Atlantic, in Geophysical Research Letters
Binder Hanin, Boettcher Maxi, Grams Christian M., Joos Hanna, Pfahl Stephan, Wernli Heini (2017), Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event, in Geophysical Research Letters
, 44(23), 12,028-12,036.
Evans Clark, Wood Kimberly M., Aberson Sim D., Archambault Heather M., Milrad Shawn M., Bosart Lance F., Corbosiero Kristen L., Davis Christopher A., Dias Pinto João R., Doyle James, Fogarty Chris, Galarneau Thomas J., Grams Christian M., Griffin Kyle S., Gyakum John, Hart Robert E., Kitabatake Naoko, Lentink Hilke S., McTaggart-Cowan Ron, Perrie William, Quinting Julian F. D., Reynolds Carolyn A., Riemer Michael, Ritchie Elizabeth A., Sun Yujuan, Zhang Fuqing (2017), The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts, in Monthly Weather Review
, 145(11), 4317-4344.
Beerli Remo, Wernli Heini, Grams Christian M. (2017), Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?Stratospheric Predictability for Wind Energy, in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
, 143(709), 3025-3036.
Grams Christian M., Beerli Remo, Pfenninger Stefan, Staffell Iain, Wernli Heini (2017), Balancing Europe’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes, in Nature Climate Change
, 7(8), 557-562.
Schneidereit Andrea, Grams Christian M., Keller Julia H., Wolf Gabriel, Teubler Franziska, Riemer Michael, Martius Olivia (2017), Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event, in Monthly Weather Review
, 145(5), 1797-1815.
Grams Christian M., Archambault Heather M. (2016), The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: a representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition., in Monthly Weather Review
, 144(10), 3847-3869.
Grams Christian M., Blumer Sandro R. (2015), European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011), in Geophysical Research Letters
, 42(20), 8738-8748.
Pfahl S., Schwierz C., Croci-Maspoli M., Grams C.M., Wernli H. (2015), Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking, in Nature Geoscience
, 8(8), 610-614.
Grams C. M., Binder H., Pfahl S., Piaget N., Wernli H. (2014), Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013, in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
, 14(7), 1691-1702.
The atmospheric conditions, colloquially denoted as “weather”, have a crucial impact on human activities (e.g. health, transport, agriculture). Thereby “weather” occurs on various temporal and spatial scales. On a daily and regional scale individual weather systems may affect infrastructure or even lead to severe loss and destruction. Two prominent examples in Switzerland are the Brig flood (1993) or winter storm Lothar (1999). In the midlatitudes individual weather systems are usually embedded in recurrent and quasi-stationary large-scale flow patterns - so-called weather regimes. Weather regimes last for several weeks and extend over continent-size regions. Although during a weather regime the day-to-day variability may be high, the overall character of the weather for a longer period is similar. Recent examples are the prolonged hot and dry periods in North America (2012), Russia (2011), or in Europe (2003) causing health problems, reduced crops, wildfires, and power shortage. The skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is systematically linked to the different scales on which variability of the atmospheric conditions occurs. While NWP usually has good forecast skill for weather systems on the synoptic scale (up to 10 days), predictability for weather regimes on the sub-seasonal scale (few weeks to months) is strongly reduced. In particular the onset and decay of a weather regime and the transition between different weather regimes poses a severe challenge to NWP. Various studies documented that the interaction of individual weather systems with the large-scale flow play a crucial role in the onset, decay and transition of weather regimes. In this project a novel approach will be used to re-investigate the mutual interaction of weather systems and weather regimes in the Atlantic-European region with the aim to reveal the physical and dynamical processes that govern the life-cycle of weather regimes and to detect sources of error for their representation in NWP models.