Atmospheric chemistry; Radiative forcing; Climate change; Long-lived greenhouse gases; Atmospheric methane
Revell Laura E., Stenke Andrea, Rozanov Eugene, Ball William, Lossow Stefan, Peter Thomas (2016), The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 16(20), 13067-13080.
Hirsch Hadorn Gertrude, Brun Georg, Soliva Carla Riccarda, Stenke Andrea, Peter Thomas (2015), Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants, in Environmental Science & Policy
, 52, 110-119.
Revell L. E., Tummon F., Stenke A., Sukhodolov T., Coulon A., Rozanov E., Garny H., Grewe V., Peter T. (2015), Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 15(10), 5887-5902.
Revell L. E., Tummon F., Salawitch R. J., Stenke A., Peter T. (2015), The changing ozone depletion potential of N2O in a future climate, in Geophysical Research Letters
, 42(22), 10,047-10,055.
Anet J. G., Muthers S., Rozanov E. V., Raible C. C., Stenke A., Shapiro A. I., Broennimann S., Arfeuille F., Brugnara Y., Beer J., Steinhilber F., Schmutz W., Peter T. (2014), Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, in CLIMATE OF THE PAST
, 10(3), 921-938.
Chipperfield M. P., Liang Q., Strahan S. E., Morgenstern O., Dhomse S. S., Abraham N. L., Archibald A. T., Bekki S., Braesicke P., Di Genova G., Fleming E. L., Hardiman S. C., Iachetti D., Jackman C. H., Kinnison D. E., Marchand M., Pitari G., Pyle J. A., Rozanov E., Stenke A., Tummon F. (2014), Multimodel estimates of atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ozone-depleting substances: Present and future, in JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
, 119(5), 2555-2573.
Muthers Stefan, Anet J. G., Stenke Andrea, Raible Christoph Cornelius, Rozanov Eugene V., Brönnimann S., Peter Thomas H., Arfeuille Florian X., Shapiro Alexander I., Beer Jürg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Brugnara Y., Schmutz Werner K. (2014), The coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM, in Geoscientific Model Development
, 7(5), 2157-2179.
Stenke A., Hoyle C. R., Luo B., Rozanov E., Groebner J., Maag L., Broennimann S., Peter T. (2013), Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict, in ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
, 13(19), 9713-9729.
Anet J. G., Muthers Stefan, Rozanov Eugene V., Raible Christoph Cornelius, Peter Thomas, Stenke Andrea, Shapiro Alexander I., Beer Jürg, Steinhilber Friedhelm, Brönnimann Stefan, Arfeuille Florian, Brugnara Y., Schmutz W. (2013), Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
, 13(21), 10951-10967.
van Dijk Arjan, Slaper Harry, den Outer Peter N., Morgenstern Olaf, Braesicke Peter, Pyle John A., Garny Hella, Stenke Andrea, Dameris Martin, Kazantzidis Andreas, Tourpali Kleareti, Bais Alkiviadis F. (2013), Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol-Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate-Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV, in PHOTOCHEMISTRY AND PHOTOBIOLOGY
, 89(1), 234-246.
Stenke Andrea, Schraner Martin, Rozanov Eugene, Egorova Tanja, Luo Beiping, Peter Thomas (2013), The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry-climate model: description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm, in Geosci. Model Dev.
, 6, 1407-1427.
Stenke Andrea, Deckert Rudolf, Gottschaldt Klaus-Dirk (2012), Methane Modeling: From Process Modeling to Global Climate Models, in Ulrich Schumann (ed.), Springer, Heidelberg, 781-797.
Sheng Jianxiong, Weisenstein Debra, Luo Beiping, Stenke Andrea, Anet Julien, Bingemer Heinz, Peter Thomas, Global Atmospheric Sulfur Budget under Volcanically Quiescent Conditions: Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Model Predictions and Validation, in Journal of Geophysical Research
Future role of Methane Emissions in the climate System (FuMES)In its most recent assessment report the IPCC stated that the observed warming of the climate system is most likely caused by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Methane (CH4) emissions caused by human activities have led to a doubling of atmospheric CH4 con-centrations since pre-industrial times, making CH4 to the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas after CO2 (in terms of radiative forcing). With a 25-times larger global warming potential than CO2 (on a 100-yr time horizon), methane would become even more important as driver of climate change if its atmospheric concentrations continued to rise. In light of this development several mitigation options to reduce anthropogenic CH4 emissions have been proposed. However, CH4 emissions from natural wetlands might increase in a warmer climate and offset future efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions. Substantial uncertainties in the understanding of the complex interactions between atmospheric methane and other atmospheric quantities like OH, CO, O3, tropospheric UV fluxes, aerosols and clouds make reliable projections difficult. To contribute to a clarification of these uncertainties we propose here to run an ensemble of short- and long-term model simulations using the state-of-the-art atmos-phere-chemistry-climate model SOCOL coupled to a dynamic global vegetation model. The following questions will be addressed in detail:- What is the relative importance of individual source and sink processes for the short- and long-term variability of the atmospheric methane abundance? Which processes determine the strength of individual methane sources and sinks?- How will methane emissions from natural wetlands change in a warmer climate?- How will the oxidation capacity of the troposphere and, therefore, the main atmospheric methane sink change in future? What are the implications for air quality?- How do proposed methane mitigation measures compare with a climate-change related aggravation of natural methane emissions? The envisaged model system will be able to simulate the atmospheric methane cycle in a self-consistent manner, including atmospheric methane sinks, CH4 uptake in soils as well as methane emissions from wetlands and other sectors. Furthermore, the model will capture the relevant feedback effects between methane emissions and the coupled chemistry-climate system of troposphere and stratosphere, including land-surface processes. The application of this novel model is expected to allow for a more reliable estimate of the future role of atmospheric methane in the climate system.