Projekt

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Statistical methods for spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of infectious diseases

Gesuchsteller/in Held Leonhard
Nummer 137919
Förderungsinstrument Projekte
Forschungseinrichtung Institut für Epidemiologie, Biostatistik und Prävention Universität Zürich
Hochschule Universität Zürich - ZH
Hauptdisziplin Mathematik
Beginn/Ende 01.03.2012 - 28.02.2015
Bewilligter Betrag 314'433.00
Alle Daten anzeigen

Alle Disziplinen (4)

Disziplin
Mathematik
Medizinische Statistik
Infektionskrankheiten
Methoden der Epidemiologie und der Präventivmedizi

Lay Summary (Englisch)

Lead
Lay summary

This research project aims to develop novel statistical methodology for

Both retro- and prospective analysis of space-time data on infectious disease

incidence. The new techniques will be applied in the particular context

of space-time surveillance data, but important parts of the methodology can

be used in a wider context.  The first sub-project is concerned with appropriate

integration of network data in statistical models to better describe the

spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases. Both parameter- and

observation-driven models will be suitably extended and statistical

algorithms will be developed to incorporate the impact of network data in the

analysis.The second sub-project is concerned with the prospective analysis of

space-time count data. Statistical algorithms for sequential analysis of time

series models will be extended to the space-time setting with particular focus on

multivariate outbreak detection. Validation of both retro- and prospective analyses

will be based on the assessment of out-of-sample predictions based on proper

scoring rules.




Direktlink auf Lay Summary Letzte Aktualisierung: 21.02.2013

Verantw. Gesuchsteller/in und weitere Gesuchstellende

Mitarbeitende

Publikationen

Publikation
Power law approximations of movement network data for modeling infectious disease spread
Geilhufe Marc, Held Leonhard, Skrøvseth Stein Olav, Simonsen Gunnar S., Godtliebsen Fred (2014), Power law approximations of movement network data for modeling infectious disease spread, in Biometrical Journal, 56, 363-382.
Flexible estimation of spatio-temporal interaction in a point process model for infectious disease spread
Meyer Sebastian, Held Leonhard (2014), Flexible estimation of spatio-temporal interaction in a point process model for infectious disease spread, Statistical Modelling Society, Göttingen, Germany.
Power-law models for infectious disease spread
Meyer Sebastian, Held Leonhard (2014), Power-law models for infectious disease spread, in Annals of Applied Statistics, 8(3), 1612-1639.
Calibration tests for count data
Wei Wei, Held Leonhard (2014), Calibration tests for count data, in TEST, 23(4), 787-805.
Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland
Wei Wei, Schüpbach Gertraud, Held Leonhard (2015), Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland, in Epidemiology and Infection, 143, 1982-1989.
Model-based testing for space-time interaction using point processes: An application to psychiatric hospital admissions in an urban area
Meyer Sebastian, Warnke Ingeborg, Rössler Wulf, Held Leonhard (2016), Model-based testing for space-time interaction using point processes: An application to psychiatric hospital admissions in an urban area, in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 17, 15-25.
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance
Meyer Sebastian, Held Leonhard, Höhle Michael (accepted), Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance, in Journal of Statistical Software.
Calibration tests for multivariate Gaussian distributions
Wei Wei, Balabdaoui Fadoua, Held Leonhard (accepted), Calibration tests for multivariate Gaussian distributions, in Journal of Multivariate Analysis.

Zusammenarbeit

Gruppe / Person Land
Felder der Zusammenarbeit
Prof. Tilmann Gneiting, Institut für Angewandte Mathematik, Universität Heidelberg Deutschland (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
Prof. Gertraud Schüpbach, VPH-Institut, Universität Bern Schweiz (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation
Prof. Michael Höhle, Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University Schweden (Europa)
- vertiefter/weiterführender Austausch von Ansätzen, Methoden oder Resultaten
- Publikation

Wissenschaftliche Veranstaltungen

Aktiver Beitrag

Titel Art des Beitrags Titel des Artikels oder Beitrages Datum Ort Beteiligte Personen
35th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics Poster Time series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland 25.08.2014 Vienna, Oesterreich Wei Wei
29th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Flexible Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Interaction in a Point Process Model for Infectious Disease Spread 14.07.2014 Göttingen, Deutschland Meyer Sebastian
Jahreskonferenz in Veterinary Public Health Institiute Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Campylobacter in Human and Chicken 04.12.2013 Bern, Schweiz Wei Wei
International Hexa-Symposium on Biostatistics, Bioinformatics, and Epidemiology Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling power-law spread of infectious diseases 15.11.2013 Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgien Held Leonhard
Workshop on "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities" Poster Evaluating Statistical Models for Multiple Time Series of Counts 30.10.2013 Heidelberg, Deutschland Wei Wei
SMIDDY 2013 (Swiss Meeting for Infectious Disease Dynamics) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling power-law spread of infectious diseases 13.09.2013 Zürich, Schweiz Meyer Sebastian
ROeS 2013 (Seminar of the Austro-Swiss Region of the International Biometric Society) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling power-law spread of infectious diseases 12.09.2013 Dornbirn, Oesterreich Meyer Sebastian
ROeS 2013 (Seminar of the Austro-Swiss Region of the International Biometric Society) Poster Campylobacter in human and chicken 12.09.2013 Dornbirn, Oesterreich Wei Wei
34th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Statistical methods in infectious disease epidemiology 25.08.2013 München, Deutschland Held Leonhard
Summer School on Topics in Space-Time Modelling and Inference Poster Power-law features in modelling the spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases 28.05.2013 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Dänemark Meyer Sebastian
3rd Joint Statistical Meeting DAGStat 2013 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Spatial power-law perspectives in modelling infectious disease spread 21.03.2013 Freiburg, Deutschland Meyer Sebastian
3rd Joint Statistical Meeting DAGStat 2013 Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Calibration test for count data 21.03.2013 Freiburg, Deutschland Wei Wei
Workshop on "Early-warning systems in Switzerland" Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Modelling and monitoring of epidemic phenomena using the surveillance package in R 04.03.2013 Bern, Schweiz Meyer Sebastian; Wei Wei
VI International Workshop on Spatio-Temporal Modelling (METMAVI) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Movement Network Data and the Spatiotemporal Spread of Infectious Diseases 13.09.2012 University of Minho, Guimarães, Portugal Held Leonhard
Invited seminar talk Einzelvortrag A Space-Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence 07.09.2012 School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London, Grossbritannien und Nordirland Meyer Sebastian
Open University conference on “Statistical Methods for Infectious Diseases” Poster A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence 23.05.2012 Milton Keynes, Grossbritannien und Nordirland Meyer Sebastian
58th Biometrical Colloquium, International Biometric Society (German Region) Vortrag im Rahmen einer Tagung Spatio-Temporal Infectious Disease Epidemiology based on Point Processes 14.03.2012 Berlin, Deutschland Meyer Sebastian


Auszeichnungen

Titel Jahr
Sebastian Meyer received a distinction from the Faculty of Science for his PhD thesis 2016

Anwendungsorientierte Outputs

Verbundene Projekte

Nummer Titel Start Förderungsinstrument
130002 Multivariate analysis of dependent count data 01.08.2010 Projekte
124429 Multivariate analysis of dependent count data 01.04.2009 Projekte
116776 Multivariate analysis of dependent count and survival data 01.04.2007 Projekte

Abstract

Summary of proposed research This research proposal aims to develop novel statistical methodology for both retro- and prospective analysis of space-time data on infectious disease incidence. The new techniques will be applied in the particular context of space-time surveillance data, but important parts of the methodology can be used in a wider context. The proposal is composed of three distinct projects, each of which will contribute significantly to the overall goals of this proposal. The first project is concerned with appropriate integration of network data in statistical models to better describe the spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases. Both parameter- and observation-driven models will be suitably extended and statistical algorithms will be proposed to incorporate the impact of network data in the analysis. Spatially-correlated overdispersion will be allowed for to achieve improved predictions of future disease incidence. The second project is concerned with the prospective analysis of space-time count data. Statistical algorithms for sequential analysis of time series models will be extended to the space-time setting with particular focus on multivariate outbreak detection. Validation of both retro- and prospective analysis will be based on the assessment of out-of-sample predictions based on proper scoring rules. The third project will develop general methodology to facilitate this goal. In particular, new techniques for the assessment of multivariate predictions will be developed, which have wider relevance in other application areas.