mitigation scenario; climate change; scenario; climate models; uncertainty
Rogelj Joeri, McCollum D.L., Reisinger A., Meinshausen Malte, Riahi K. (2013), Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation., in Nature
Rogelj Joeri, Schaeffer R., van Vuuren D. (2013), The Emissions Gap Report 2013 - A UNEP Synthesis Report. 64
, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya.
Rogelj Joeri, McCollum D.L., Riahi K. (2013), The UN’s new ‘Sustainable Energy For All’ initiative is compatible with 2°C. (Perspective), in Nature Climate Change
Rogelj Joeri, McCollum D.L., O'Neill B.C., Riahi K. (2012), 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C, in Nature Climate Change
Rogelj J., Shukla P.R., Dellink R., den Elzen M., Hanaoka T., Lowe J., Luderer G., Riahi K., van Vuuren D. (2012), Chapter 3: The Emissions Gap - An Update
, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya.
Rogelj Joeri, Hare William, Chen Claudine, Meinshausen Malte (2012), Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2°C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges, in Environmental Research Letters
, 6, 1-9.
Rogelj J., Knutti R., Meinshausen M. (2012), Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates, in Nature Climate Change
, 2, 248-253.
Höhne N., Rogelj J., Xiusheng Z. (2011), Bridging the Emissions Gap - A UNEP Synthesis Report. 56
Rogelj J., Höhne N., Jiang K., Xiusheng Z. (2011), Chapter 2: The Emissions Gap - an update
, UNEP , Nairobi, Kenia.
Rogelj Joeri, Chen Claudine, Nabel Julia (2011), Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module, in Environmental Modelling & Software
, 26, 1419-1433.
Rogelj J., Hare W., Van Vuuren Detlef (2011), Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C, in Nature Climate Change
, 1, 413-418.
Rogelj Joeri, Höhne Niklas, Wagner Fabian, Xiusheng Zhao (2011), National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies, in Climate Policy
As anthropogenic climate change is unequivocal and its ecological, societal and economic impacts are becoming increasingly significant, nations are aiming at curbing global emissions onto a downward trajectory. The main arena of these efforts is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of which the Copenhagen Summit in December 2009 was the last high-profile exponent. During these negotiations delegations rely heavily on predictions of climate models. However, climate projection exercises have been focussing their efforts on high emission pathways and little attention has been given to deep mitigation scenarios resulting in an underinvestigation of this field.This research project will strive to unlock this area for the wider climate science community by providing a methodology to generate and investigate deep mitigation emission pathways and the associated uncertainties in climatic consequences with a hierarchy of climate models. Furthermore, in the framework of this research project, an initial set of analyses - highly relevant to international climate negotiations and policy - will also be carried out with a selection of prominent and well-documented climate models. For many research questions on the interface between climate science and climate policy, flexible and realistic emission scenarios are required for not only the main greenhouse gas (CO2) but also for other greenhouse gases (like CH4 and N2O), aerosol precursors and other radiative constituents. Starting from what is likely to be the most appropriate methodology for the generation of flexible so-called multi-gas scenarios and incorporating the latest results of current globally coordinated emission scenario exercises, this research project will integrate state-of-the-art mitigation scenario knowledge and generate an output which will enable the global climate science community to investigate deep mitigation policy strategies in an unprecedented flexible and consistent way. An important impact on both climate science and international climate policy research is anticipated.