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Providing more informative predicitons of climate change impact on plant species distribution: validation, uncertainties, functional responses, community assembly and implications for conservation

Titel Englisch Providing more informative predicitons of climate change impact on plant species distribution: validation, uncertainties, functional responses, community assembly and implications for conservation
Gesuchsteller/in Guisan Antoine
Nummer 110000
Förderungsinstrument Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)
Forschungseinrichtung Département d'Ecologie et d'Evolution Faculté de Biologie et de Médecine Université de Lausanne
Hochschule Universität Lausanne - LA
Hauptdisziplin Oekologie
Beginn/Ende 01.10.2005 - 30.06.2007
Bewilligter Betrag 167'475.00
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Lay Summary (Englisch)

Lead
Lay summary
There is now compelling evidence that ongoing climate change is impacting ecosystems, but we still lack a long-term view. Mountain ecosystems, in particular, were identified as potentially sensitive ecosystems in the future. Spatial models that can predict species’ distributions are thus powerful tools to assess such future ecological impacts. In this project, we hypothesized that projections made by such models for alpine species at the European scale might differ from local projections obtained for the same species at finer scale in a mountain environment, where species’ migration might be impeded by barriers or too slow seed dispersal rates. We further hypothesize that the capacity of models to predict future distributions requires that models can also predict past distributions adequately. The project had three specific objectives: 1) compare projections at local and European scales, 2) assess robustness of model projections, by testing the capacity of models to predict in the past, 3) take dispersal into account when deriving projections. Using 78 subalpine and alpine species in two distinct regions of the Swiss Alps, we assessed whether predictions made at local (25m pixels) and European (c. 16km pixels) resulted in similar species extinction patterns by the end of the 21st century,. We demonstrated that models at European scale predict higher extinction rates than those at local scale under any climate change scenarios. We then developed and used a migration tool (MIGCLIM) to run a series of simulations of change in species distribution with transient climate change. Our results indicate that the future potential distributions taking dispersal into account can differ significantly from those not incorporating dispersal. In addition, the uncertainty related to the various temperature warming scenarios can be greater than that related to the dispersal parameters. Last, we assessed the transferability in time of the models of seven tree species. A previous assessment had already revealed failure to predict adequately the distributions of alpine species in space. We found that transferability in time worked well for dominant species, but failed for the most pioneer ones. This might result from an evolution of species’ climatic requirement occurring in some instances, depending on the biogeographical context and focus species being considered. These results have strong implications for predicting plant distributions in future climates or to distinct geographic areas.
Direktlink auf Lay Summary Letzte Aktualisierung: 21.02.2013

Verantw. Gesuchsteller/in und weitere Gesuchstellende

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Verbundene Projekte

Nummer Titel Start Förderungsinstrument
125145 Assessing the importance of biotic interactions for predicting the impact of climate change on the future distribution of plant assemblages (BIOASSEMBLE) 01.04.2009 Projektförderung (Abt. I-III)

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